Kendrick 2012 exam dates

[stevew61]

First we need to know the number of candidates, which I hope we will get with results in twenty (whose counting ) days time.

As stated above last year was unusual, a low turnout, offers down to rank 120 (confirmed by school) and now all above 109.0 (deemed suitable) got offers.

As crudely estimated above for 600 candidates 115 looks good, 114 looks ok, 113.xx in with a shout.

But I really don't want to mislead anyone in anyway so please take all this with a big pinch of salt and add a good margin for error.

[Tinkers]

I was asked by a parent about parking restrictions when I pulled up on Kendrick Rd. Got chatting during walk back to school and found family were from west London, so there will still be out of catchment girls who would have taken test with the hope they may still be able to get a place.

Did they know they were not in catchment?

If last year was a record small year, I wonder if some decided to have a go this year because of that and it's gone the other way. Maybe the catchment meant that those closer felt they had more of a chance.

I know of a number of parents who decided late on to apply and also a number who said their DDs said there were types they couldn't do or not seen before. In my DDs group then was one girl who asked how to do a type because she didn't know.

So while there may be far more applicants this year, some are ooc, and others are not as prepared. Time will tell, thankfully not as long as before to wait.

[cestlavie]

Those numbers look pretty realistic to me. What is hard to tell is if you're below 113, how much lower is really in with a chance. The score reflects the cohort of say 600 that sat the test, what we won't and can't know is how many of them will put the school down. So unless the schools say that they are unsuitable below some threshold (which they mention but don't define), it is probably worth an outside punt unless you are particularly concerned about getting into 2nd, 3rd or 4th choices.

[Reading Mum]

The unsuitable threshold is below 109.0

[Goodmum]

Hi. I am new to this forum.
We had a morning exam slot. After I collected my DDs (very first group came out) at sports hall we left building and started walking in the rain then I decided to ask Reception how many candidates were so I went back. To my surprise, they said, they could not give me the exact number but it was ROUGHLY 650 - this is what I was told.
Indeed there were 4 girls did not turn up in my DDs' class. Does anyone have the exact numbers of girls who took exam in the end ? Anyway hopefully the total number will come with scores. Otherwise, I might have to feel brave again to contact directly school as it's critical info to work out DDs' ranks.

[37+ Dad]

There are too many factors involved to try to come up with any sensible idea of what will happen this year. My attempt below is just a shot in the dark (with some candlelight ). This may be totally nonsensical so be easy on me.

Last year

• Total sat : 537 (mentioned somewhere on the forum)
  Last rank that was offered a place: 120 (as Steve mentioned above)
  End result: All above 109, who wanted(or waited long enough) got place.
  Conclusion: With 537 sat school got almost exactly 96 deemed fit DCs who were interested in a place.

This year

By extrapolation(hazard warning: ability of past cohort is not an indication of future trends )

• Total sat: 650(rough estimate)
  No. of passed candidates interested in place: 96 + 15% of 650-537 = 113
  OOC candidates: Lets say 11 (somewhere on the forum somebody mentioned around 10% in current classes being from far away places that can now be considered OOC)
  Conclusion: Around 102 seriously interested candidates(above 109 score) for 96 places.

I am not statistics expert, so this may be too simplistic so please don't forget to take the customary large pinch of salt with this.

[cestlavie]

It doesn't quite work like that...

Standardised scores are from a Normal distribution (think of a bell shaped curve centered at 100).

If there are n applicants (that really do want a place) then you can use the formula below in Excel
=(1-NORMDIST(109,100,15,1))*n
This doesn't take into account some clustering on very similar scores (which seems to give more applicants suitable). But for 600 applicants the number deemed suitable with a cut-off of 109 is 165.

Interesting that Kendrick states 109 as the cut-off . I note that Reading doesn't define the standardised score in their admisssions policy - leaving it some flexibility to compare the applicants and look at raw scores that equate to each standardised score to see if applicants are suitable.

[37+ Dad]

If there are n applicants (that really do want a place) then you can use the formula below in Excel
=(1-NORMDIST(109,100,15,1))*n
This doesn't take into account some clustering on very similar scores (which seems to give more applicants suitable). But for 600 applicants the number deemed suitable with a cut-off of 109 is 165.

I wasn't trying to come up with the number that are suitable that may well be 165.

I was trying to get to the number that are suitable but interested as well. Out of 165 there will be some who are OOC others who doesn't have Kendrick as first preference and still others who used it as Mock.

For example if last year last accepted candidate was 120th ranked that means at least 24 were not interested. This number will proportionately be higher and add to it the OOCs who will be considered only after in-catchment candidates.

Anyhow this isn't exact science and any number will be just an informed guess.

[sonasona]

2 weeks today guys

[Bewildered]

2 weeks today guys

That's better than previous years, which would be saying 5 1/2 months to go at this stage!