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 Post subject: Success Rate
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:17 am 
Camphill Boys 93
Camphill Girls 120
Handworth Grils 128
Aston Boys 104
KEFW 150
BV 100

Total Places (A) = 695 Potential No of Candidates (B) = 3500 A/B 20% possibly 1/5 places awarded.


Can this be a valid and simplistic way of looking at the possibility of success of a child getting into the above schols.?

Anymore suggestions?

Thanks Pi


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:33 am 
Hi

Not really

There are a number of variables that need to be inputted. Such as the level of preparation the child has had prior to the test, etc.

Going into the test some children are more likely to pass than others.

The majority of places would go to the genuinely high ability kids who would score at the top end of the marking range and these children going into the test would have a better than 1 in 5 chance of getting a place.

A proportion of places would go to borderline children who on a good day would achieve a pass mark, and some places would go to children who would not really be expected to pass. In these instances there would be a less than 1 in 5 chance of getting a place.

Then some of the schools may have a policy of accepting a proportion of out of area children. The out of area children may be a larger goup competing for less places givng them a less than 1 in 5 chance of getting a place.

Consequntly when removing the out of area children from the total group you may have a smaller number of in area children going for a higher proportion of the places available giving them a better than 1 in 5 chance of getting a place.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:55 am 
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Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:12 pm
Posts: 1300
Location: Birmingham
Hi Pi,

Not quite.

As there's a direct correlation between the standardised score pass mark and pass percentile rank of candidates for each school, the best way is to look at the previous years pass standardised scores.

This is what you need to do:-

Take a look at the NFER site ref. article on Standardised scores (link on this site) to see the linkage between standardised scores and percentile rank.

Find out the pass mark scores for the various KE Foundation & B/ham grammar schools (see postings in the forum)

For KE Foundation Schools, divide the number by 3 and round up. This gives you the minimum average standardised score that a child needs to achieve in each of the 3 sections to pass.

Then compare what this standardised score equates to in terms of percentile rank for each school.

Your can then work out the chance of passing the exam on a school by school basis.

I'll give you a worked example:-

Last year's pass scores for KE Foundation schools were 341, 329, 329, 327 and 319 for Camp Hill Boys, KEFW, Camp Hill Girls, KE Aston and KE Handsworth Girls respectively.

For Camp Hill Boys (341) div 3 and round up give 3 x 114.

A standardised score of 114 is about the 82nd percentile rank.

So Boys applying to Camp Hill boys had a 100 div 18 chance or 1: 5.6

However the previous year, the pass mark for Camp Hill boys was 347, so the min standardised score was 116 which is the 86th percentile which equates to 1:7.14

Unfortunately, the pass scores vary year by year depending of the popularity of the schools as determined by where parents put the schools in the LEA priority list.

Hope this helps


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 11:05 am 
Hello, interesting. However, on the whole, if there are approx 600+ places and 3500 children go through the test, are the chances roughly 1 in 10, taking into account all the variables and levelling them out.

So, say the chances are 1 in 10 and as you say, some will be high ability, then mid ability, and finally a low level who pass the exam, borderline. This than says that for the 600+ places made availables by the grammar schools, only about 150 will be high achievers in their edcuation careers and the rest will get by; and, that the 150 or so will be the ones who maintain the standards for the schools.

So, if the system was changed to enable those children, who failed the test but go on to be successful at comprehensive schools, to gain places at the grammar schools, and were taken into the mix, the true analysis would show that the grammar system is fair and works.

But in the real world, this isn't the case. Is this why the foundation encourages parents not over "tutor" children who scarpe by and struggle later on at the schools. This is particularily so of prep/private schools as I have seen in my experience.

I am no expert on the ins/outs of the education system, other than the interests of my son. It is an interesting debate to be had on a level field.

Thanks Pi


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 Post subject: Re: Success Rate
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 11:58 am 
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Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2006 4:23 pm
Posts: 125
Location: Dudley, West Midlands
Pi wrote:
Total Places (A) = 695 Potential No of Candidates (B) = 3500 A/B 20% possibly 1/5 places awarded.

Can this be a valid and simplistic way of looking at the possibility of success of a child getting into the above schols.?

Anymore suggestions?


Not sure quite where you're going with this Pi? and I'm still trying to understand KenR's responce! - I'll get there eventually :-)

You might like to lower the "Potential No of Candidates" figure though. The few heads of Grammars and independant schools that I've talked to gave a pretty consistent story of perhaps 1/6-to-1/5 of applicants not really being in any way credible potential candidates to enter the school.

Also not all KEVI places offered are accepted - in responce the schools 'overbook' by (IIRC) a similar amount.

So, if you're sure your child is at least a credible candidate and you would accept the place then you 'chances' improve dramatically - FWIW?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:24 pm 
The important thing when applying is to put the schools in the order YOU really want them. Who cares if Camp Hill Girls has a higher pass mark than KE Handsworth? We don't, because Handsworth is our first choice school, and we haven't put down Camp Hill at all. A lower pass mark means that Year 2 daughter has an even better chance of joining Big Sister. Great! It was our first choice school for Big Sister as well, not a second best.

A lot of people seem to think that they need to put down the schools in the order of the pass marks. Last year's pass marks at that! Think again, anyone planning to do that next year. You visit the schools; you read the prospectuses and the Ofsted reports; you talk to the Heads. Make up your own mind which you prefer, taking all factors into account including Specialist School status, journey times and so on. By all means put Camp Hill first (or whatever); but not just because somebody else says so.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:26 pm 
Whoops!!

I should have said Year 6 or Number 2 daughter. Not Year 2.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:32 pm 
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Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:12 pm
Posts: 1300
Location: Birmingham
Hi Pi

I'm not quite sure I understand the latter part.

However just to muddy the waters, in Birmingham boys actually are at a slight disadvantage.

For the KE Schools there are 248 Girls School places, 197 Boys school places and 150 mixed(KEFW). Also BV is boys and Sutton Grammar girls. So working on your high level view, you should probably separate the figures.

Not sure what it does to your figures!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:16 pm 
The boys also have Handsworth Grammar though, I believe. Not having any boys, I know nothing about the school, but it is a grammar school with test administered by the Local Authority (ie, not KE). The reason that Five Ways became Co-Ed was to level up the playing field for girls. Up until that time there were fewer places for girls, hence the 60/40 split at 5 ways. It was all done to even up the places.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 5:37 pm 
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Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:12 pm
Posts: 1300
Location: Birmingham
Hi KEMum

Interestingly there's no formal 60:40 allocation at KEFW, the top 150 candidates of whatever sex get places - it just so happens that less girls apply or put KEFW as 1st choice - presumably because there are more place all girls schools.

I believe the split is evening up slightly year on year at KEFW


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