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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:14 am 
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I've read on the Warks forum that the chances of gaining a GS place in B'ham is about 1 in 5.
Can anybody give any more info on this? I understand various factors will influence the ratios such as placing a school as your first or second preference.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:22 am 
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Lots of factors! Some areas are much more "upfront" for example in North Yorks the passmark is the top 28% in catchment ... and there is a very limited number of schools around (in practice each child is really only eligible to apply for one.. apart from a very few areas :wink: ).

In B'ham where there are lots of schools and lots of kids taking the exam you have to remember that each child will be applying to several but can ultimately only go to one.. also some will go to Indies.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:40 pm 
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Location: West Midlands / warks border
SSS glad you posted this, as per discussions on warwickshire forum regarding numbers and ratios.

Does anyone know the number of 1st choice preferences that were put on application forms last year for each of the schools.

Someone has very kindly put this info on warwickshire forum showing number of 1st choice, number of places and the ratios.

i think this gives a more informed idea of how likely/unlikely it will be to get a place.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:59 pm 
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http://www.birminghammail.net/news/top-stories//2012/09/29/birmingham-school-place-race-tougher-than-ever-97319-31928983/4/
Just spotted this - I think the first column are offers over PAN.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:05 pm 
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i think then though that the results were not known (to the parents) before the CAF was submitted... so many of those who put a school first may not have been eligible. I suppose what you need to do is add up the number of kids applying everywhere ... ie the total pool and the number of GS places available.

edit:
13,400 - due to start year 7 - 1106 GS places ..


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:22 pm 
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Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 1:42 pm
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Location: Birmingham
....and 4600 applicants who took the consortium exam this year. So that means approx 1 in 4 chance for those who actually took the exam doesn't it?

I have seen the scaremongering 1 in 10 in the past by the Mail. There has also been the 1 in 6 ratio put out which I assume simply adds up all the number of applicants to each of the schools (although applicants at one school usually have several other schools on their form too).

UmSusu

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UmSusu


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:27 pm 
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There's a breakdown here but reliability is undermined by incorrect admission numbers for most of the grammars. PAN for 2012 (and for 2013 for that matter) has not increased for any of the B'ham grammars, but the Mail has optimistically added an extra form to most.

http://www.birminghammail.net/news/birmingham-news/2012/09/29/race-for-school-places-full-birmingham-schools-breakdown-97319-31928983/

Correcting for admission numbers that would give:

School/places/first prefs
BV/124/241
HGS/130/197
KEA/104/348
CHB/93/677
CHG/120/636
FW/150/565
KEHw/128/469
SC/150/366

Slightly down on 2011 for BV, KEA and CHB and slightly up for the rest.

The Birmingham Post used to publish numbers that included the QMs and WGHS but I can't see one for this year.

(edit to add: that's 1 in 3.5 for a GS place, or 1 in 3.8 for a Consortium GS place)

Mike


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:42 pm 
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Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:20 pm
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Location: Warwickshire
Links to figures:
spreadsheet of all 2012 admissions for Birmingham (source)
2011 - inc links to Wolverhampton/Walsall
2010 - grammars only, including Wolverhampton/Walsall


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:44 pm 
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Location: West Midlands / warks border
This is great, thanks.

Very imformative and quite scary actually.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:57 pm 
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Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:12 pm
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Location: Birmingham
Simpler way to calculate is as follows:-

Look at the sticky at the top of this section realtedto exam scores over the past 8 years:-

http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/forum/11plus/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7148

Under the lowest pass score for each school, I have calculated the average standardised score in brackets.

The age standardised scores are directly related to a percentage - e.g. 116 is the 86th percentile - i.e. 14% pass and 86% fail (you can get this from the NFER date on Age Standardisation on this site)

Hence if the average pass score for that particular school was 116, then the chance of gettig in would be 14:100 or 1:7.1

Hope this helps


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