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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:21 pm 
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I believe it's anyone's guess at this stage but what do you think?

Many posters thought the number of children taking the entrance test for KES and KEHS will be lower this year due to parent's knowing the child's score for KE grammars in advance. However, it was reported to be an all time high. The effect could possibly be down to those children not securing a high enough mark to make any of the grammars, who in normal circumstances would not have applied to the independent sector.

Here's my prediction :

CH Boys - goes up by 2 points

CH Girls - goes up by 1 point

FW - goes up by 2 points

Rest will stay the same or slightly lower by a point or two!

Any thoughts?


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:55 pm 
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I think we might find that, as there were an extra 500 applicants for 2013 entry, then there might be a higher 'pass mark' needed for the schools who traditionally have a cut off mark nearer to the average of 200.
My predictions:
CHB/CHG/FW +1 at the most
KEVIHS/KEA/SUTTON +2 or even +3
I'm not sure that we're going to get a drop in scores this year .


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:34 pm 
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There is a good possibility that majority of these extra 500 candidates came from Warwickshire and Walsall region sitting it merely as a mock. Let's imagine 200 out of the 500 candidates were sitting it purely as a mock. That would leave us with 300 serious additional candidates.

Based on the previous CHB cut-offs, a successful candidate needs to score in the top 12.5% to secure a place. So 12.5% of 300 leave us with around 37 extra candidates. Let's just assume half of these were girls and that filters the figure further down to 18 for CHB. Now on each standardised point there could potentially be 8 to 10 candidates which would possibly increase the cut-off by 2 points for CHB :)

MSD


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:09 pm 
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Location: Birmingham
The cut off for CH and FW tends to increase every year..

I think the cut-off for KE Aston, KE Handsworth, BV and SGS may increase by a few points this year.

This because, traditionally, parents have been 'blind' to the results and sometimes overly optimistic, as well as unwilling to consider travelling, with quite a few putting, say, Camp Hill as first choice, followed by the local comprehensive.
In March, this often resulted in quite a few parents wanting to jump quickly on the waiting lists of the other Grammars, when they realised their child had made the 'score' for them and actually realised they'd prefer a Grammar place.
Now that parents have received the results and may have realised that their child doesn't really have the score for CH or FW, they may have begun to seriously consider the other Grammars and the travel routes to them, and placed them on their form.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:47 pm 
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Location: West Midlands / warks border
I have posted this before, but see no harm in repeating myself!

DS got a score of 237, so from your predictions, he will get a place at his first choice of FW, would you all agree?


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:54 pm 
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Our son had a slightly lower score than that and we only placed two schools on the CAF. FW is the last one.

So 237 will most definitely be enough, otherwise we are in serious trouble!!

MSD


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:00 pm 
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Location: West Midlands / warks border
Thanks.

We keep telling him he will be fine and we are 99% sure he will get the place.

We put 4 schools on our form. King Edwards Stratford was second, cut off 338 and he got 360. Also he was ranked 47th out of 527 boys, so with 81 places there we know that would be a definate place. AGS third, with a lower score than KES.

So we know he will definately get a grammer school, so that is a comforting thought!


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:10 pm 
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Location: Not in a hole in the ground but in a land where once they dwelt-the Beormingas
Ever since I read this statement on one of the KECHB's newsletters, I've been baffled... :?

There were 9 boys on the cut off score who were not offered a place due to large amount of entrants (4,600 and increase of 700 on last year). There may be a decision to raise the cut off score for next year.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:17 pm 
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That doesn't sound right. I didn't think it was possible for the school to raise the cut-off as it's not in their hand. The only thing they have control on is the number of place they offer above PAN. The cut-off is automatically decided by admissions system based on how many places are available at that particular school.

MSD


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:37 pm 
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I think it means that it will raise the cut off by one point so that all candidates on that cut off score will be offered a place rather than only a few on one point below. By doing so, they will offer less places (they still have to over offer). We don't know how many candidates are on the same score but could be a wide range of 10-40? depending where the score is on the distribution curve. Having twins gives you a little more info. Mine scored within 3 points of each other in Warwickshire where there are a lot less candidates but were 40 places apart. I agree though - ambiguous sentence.

koala


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