Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go up?

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DIY Mum
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by DIY Mum »

Hi KenR,

The meeting was held on Nov 1st and we received emails on the 15th Nov.
MSD
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by MSD »

From what I read they have 9 boys on 234 and decided not to offer them a place. So basically the cut-off really is 235.

MSD
mike1880
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by mike1880 »

Okanagan wrote:To take a very simplistic model - if we assume that the 3499 applicants out of approx 3900 (anyone got a more accurate figure?) taking the 2011 tests were equally spread across the score range then approx 31.6% of those who wanted a place would get one. If we were looking at a single standardised score (not aggregated standard scores as is actually the case), that would equate to a standardised score of 100+(0.48*15)=107.2. If we assumed that 500 of the extra 700 were actually looking for places this year that would mean places for 27.7% of applicants - equivalent to a single standardised score of (100+(0.59*15)=108.9.

It's a little more complex than just doubling the difference when you're dealing with two aggregated standardised scores (and we've made an assumption about the number of extra applicants anyway) but 2 * (108.9-107.2) i.e. 3.4 would give you a fair idea of the amount of variance in scores the extra applicants would cause on average. Obviously this might vary from school to school.
That's the approach I would take; it implies (making a few assumptions and guesses) that the qualifying score for the least favoured schools (BV, SCGSG) will rise by perhaps a point or two.

The situation is less clear for the most popular schools (CHB, CHG) because their qualifying score is determined solely by the number putting them as first preference. A sharply increasing proportion of parents have been doing so in recent years, hence driving up their qualifying scores relative to the others. It's impossible to predict what the effect of knowing scores will be on this choice. As I've pointed out in previous posts, if it encourages everyone who gets what would (historically) have been a qualifying score for CHB/CHG to put that one first, that would in fact drive their qualifying score up quite dramatically. My own expectation is that the scores for CHB and CHG will rise, but I will not speculate by how much and I won't even attempt to guess what will happen to the Five Ways score.

As for the somewhat garbled paragraph in the parents association newsletter: the 234 referred to is not this year's qualifying score. The meeting was held on 1st November, remember. The closing date for applications is 31st October, followed by a lengthy period of data entry and THEN by exchange of information between authorities (and CHB gets 25% of its applications from out of area) before even the LEA has any clue who has applied to the school, never mind the head.

Mike
MSD
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by MSD »

Thanks Mike!
MSD wrote:even the LEA has any clue who has applied to the school, never mind the head
Those were my initial thoughts when I saw the published statement for the first time. But when I read it in its entirety it looked completely black and white. More so as it has been reported under Mr Roden's name. But I guess we can safely discard it for the time being.

I believe the number of applications to CHB/CHG as first preference will be lower this year as compared to the previous years. In previous years most parents would have put these down as their first choice irrespective of the child's ability. Knowing the scores in advance changes that to some degree resulting in lower but a lot of successful applications.

MSD
nervousmom
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by nervousmom »

Would anyone like to put their neck on line and give their predictions for the lowest QS for FW?
MSD
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by MSD »

nervousmom wrote:Would anyone like to put their neck on line and give their predictions for the lowest QS for FW?
If we had an award for the most appropriate name on the forum you will surely win hands down:)

Nervousmom, there is nothing to get nervous about in your case. Relax and take a deep breath!!
nervousmom
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by nervousmom »

Everyone says that to me.

I'm not that bad really! Just trying to pass the time, but don't know if it really helps!

Big breath taken :)

Good luck to you as well, if I remember rightly you applied for CHB as first choice?
MSD
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by MSD »

Just spoke to the Headmaster at CHB. The newsletter extract refers to the cut-off last year where 9 on the cut-off were not offered a place. This year the PAN is 93 and they have reduced the over-offers by 9 bringing the number down to 115 from last years 124. So there might be some movement on the waiting list.

Most interestingly he thinks he would be extremely surprised if the cut-off wasn't close to 240 this year.

There's our good bye to place at CHB :(

MSD
sss
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by sss »

MSD wrote:Just spoke to the Headmaster at CHB. The newsletter extract refers to the cut-off last year where 9 on the cut-off were not offered a place. This year the PAN is 93 and they have reduced the over-offers by 9 bringing the number down to 115 from last years 124. So there might be some movement on the waiting list.

Most interestingly he thinks he would be extremely surprised if the cut-off wasn't close to 240 this year.

There's our good bye to place at CHB :(

MSD
Keep the faith MSD
I personally think the cut off will be pretty much the same as previous years.
Good luck all the same
SSS
newbiemum
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Re: Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go u

Post by newbiemum »

Thats a bit worrying if the head actually said that, would he know or is that an educated guess? bit of a point hike if he's right, hope hes not as that will filter down to all the other schools too. Worrying more now!
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