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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:50 pm 
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Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:10 pm
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Don't know the best place to ask this question, but does anyone have any idea at all of how the DC's scores will/may appear after being standardised separately by B'ham and Warks? What I mean is, I am following with interest all the discussions about 'normal distribution' etc (started with how Walsall score might relate to B'ham), and am now wondering how anything might relate to the score that Warks will produce from the score obtained in the 12th Sept exam - unless it will be the same as the B'ham one.

I can ask the same question in the Warks region if that would be best, but as B'ham is clearly where it's all happening, and a number of people have been working quite hard on it all (and as the DD in our family is hoping most for a B'ham school), it seemed a good place to start. Hope I make sense!


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:00 pm 
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Hi DGM,

Although we aren't interested in any Warwickshire schools, I ticked Warwickshire on admissions form just to get the score report as it traditionally has been lot more detailed than other regions.

My understanding is that both regions, Birmingham and Warwickshire, are now standardising two way: 50% for English and 50% for NVR/Maths. Please correct me as I don't know enough about Warwickshire.

So I am guessing they will add everyone who ticked Warwickshire and standardise on those, and the same goes with Birmingham.

Is that what you are asking?


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:35 pm 
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Thank you MSD.

I just wrote my reply and submitted but then it said string error and it has disappeared. Think I need to save drafts but am learning! I am working on it again ... Now it says my message has too few characters but fingers crossed this will go ....


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:59 pm 
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Trying again! I thought I had heard or read that B'ham and Warks will both take the score achieved in the exam but then do different standardisations on it, so that one score will be given from B'ham and a different score from Warks. If that is the case, then I have been wondering how to work out how they might relate to each other. Like everyone, I expect, we are thinking "well, if she gets 200-something-plus she might get in here , if she gets 200-something-else-plus she might get in there' etc. and I have been generally assuming we are talking about the same range for both regions.

On the other hand, I suppose that even if they are standardised differently it doesn't really matter, as the B'ham score would relate to B'ham schools and Warks to Warks ...?


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:08 pm 
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DGM be wary of juxtaposing two questions.

1) The standardisation formula (I don't know if Warks apply a differing SD formula and Weighting by Category, but it would seem unlikely as say someone in Kings N, should in theory be able to apply to stratford as well as KEFW on the back of the one test)

2) The cut off scores for each school which arise from the specific mix of actuall applications to the school that year.

I suppose Warks could apply their own SD formula, but whatever the score it would be an extra layer of complexity, but if QMHS and WGHS see no reason to apply a different formula, you would have to ask the reason why Warks would do it off the same test.

Hopefully you'll get a definitive answer


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:16 pm 
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This is the sequence of events and how the process works:

1. Same test taken on 12th Sept by Birmingham and Warwickshire region.

2. All the papers get marked by computer and a raw score for two subject areas (English and Maths/NVR) get allocated against the candidate number.

3. An SD score for two subject areas and a total SD score is produced for each candidate. This is done separately for Birmingham and Warwickshire based on the numbers applying for each area, candidates raw score, age factor and subject weighting. Both areas use same weighting: 50% English weighting, 50% Maths/NVR weighting.

4. Letters sent out to parents giving them the total SD, SD for each area, rank order in case of Warwickshire, and last cut-off score for all schools in the last 2 or 3 years.

crossed with PP


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:20 pm 
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That's amazing MSD. It is made clear at the outset that you must apply to Warks, as presumably they cannot keep running SD calcs, if someone took the test and then decided actually I would like to go the Alcester or Stratford???


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:29 pm 
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Thank you both! We will just have to wait for those letters! If the first one doesn't come up trumps, we will still be waiting for the second one ... Is there no end to the waiting?! It is very interesting, enjoyable and informative on this forum - many thanks and good wishes to all!


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:32 pm 
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Regarding standardisations and cohort, see an extract from my Premiership results spreadsheet. Of marginal interest and not even at the club level, but look how variable the scores lines and types of scores have been in this year's premier league compared to the last two full seasons averaged.

Highlights the natural volatility in any given population and cohort.

Aways

0-1 has occurred 19% more than average - helped by today's Stoke Win at villa :oops:
0-2 has occurred 38% LESS than average even though away wins are much more frequent this year??
1-2 has occurred 26% more than average
1-3 has occurred 41% MORE than average - characterised by today's Win at Chelsea by Southampton.
2-3 has occurred 74% MORE than average

Homes

1-0 has occurred 64% LESS than average
2-0 is about average
2-1 has occurred 46% LESS than average
3-0 is about average
3-1 is 20% ABOVE average even though Home wins are far less frequent than for last two seasons

Draws

0-0 has occurred 19% more than average
1-1 has occurred 9% less than average
2-2 has occurred 128% MORE than average and is the scoreline most responsible for the number of draws being well above average compared to the last two seasons
3-3 has not happened at all but occurs only about 1.2% of the time


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:05 pm 
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Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:12 pm
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Location: Birmingham
MSD wrote:

3. An SD score for two subject areas and a total SD score is produced for each candidate. This is done separately for Birmingham and Warwickshire based on the numbers applying for each area, candidates raw score, age factor and subject weighting. Both areas use same weighting: 50% English weighting, 50% Maths/NVR weighting.


I don't believe this is correct, for OOC applications (from say Worcs) Warks admissions have made it clear that you are allowed to apply to Warks grammars without applying for the Warks exam if you have registered with the B/ham consortium. That's why I strongly suspect that the standardisations this year will be the same for Warks & B/Ham


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