CAF Preferences - Interesting exercise

[Petitpois]

too late for this year

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/mi ... l-10271120" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[wolvsparent]

I have a question about the CAF. I appreciate all LAs will have a different format, eg different number of references (3,5 or 6 etc). My query is, do the reasons you put down for your choice of preferences have any bearing? I'm nervous as there are up to 2500 or 3000 characters (I think) for parents to explain their choice of preferences. (Wolves LA). As my first three preferences are selective schools (Ags, QMGS, HGS) can I write son took test and we believe his score would qualify him a place?? Last two schools are comp's, 4th preference an oversubscribed and 5th is our local that he should get into (not heavily oversubscribed). As the schools are not religious, I'm not sure what reasons to include. I could note easy to travel to?? Should I put more effort into the reasons or would a simple few sentences do? Lol, took me ages to think which 5 schools and then sort the order out. Now I'm fretting over reasons.

Hi ThumbsUp, we are also in Wolverhampton LA and have just submitted our CAF

AGS
Smestow
Highfields

DS preferred Smestow to Highfields (as smaller I think) even though results are not as good. Highfields really seem to be leaping ahead. We let him choose as hopefully the second choice won't be needed fingers crossed! Are you in catchment for theses comps?

[meldan103]

I have emailed the following choices :-

1. KEHGS
2. KECHG
3. QMG
4. SUTTON GIRLS
5. KE
6. PERRY BEECHES

[hermanmunster]

I have emailed the following choices :-

1. KEHGS
2. KECHG
3. QMG
4. SUTTON GIRLS
5. KE
6. PERRY BEECHES

I think the cutoff for CHG is usually rather higher than HGS so the school in your second slot is wasted. If you want to be considered for CHG then you have to put it first. which school is at (5)?

[Petitpois]

It is sensible to have CHG second if overall you want a Birmingham Grammar. If your first pref is KEHGS then it is right to put it first.

Each point you have above 220 reduces the risk that you will not be offered KEHGS. Equally each point you have above 220 increases the risk that you will achieve a waiting list offer from either CHG if you put it down.

If worst case scenario plays out at you are offered QMHS, you will be on waiting list for both

[Turtlegirl]

I don't think that's right Petitpois:

If you are offered a first choice school, you don't go any waiting list. So if your first choice is KEVIHS, and you've scored highly enough for CHG, you will still not be offered Camp Hill. You will have a place at KE Handsworth. That's it.

If you've not scored enough for KEVIHS nor KECHG but have a place at QMHS, your waiting list place will be higher at the school which has the lower offer score - which will be KEVIHS, going on all previous years. The only thing that would make KECHG worth putting as second choice would be if KE Handsworth is so popular this year (with its larger number of places than Camp Hill) that the offer score is higher than that at Camp Hill. But that seems unlikely.

With six options on your list though, it doesn't matter if you put Camp Hill down second. Especially if you've scored highly enough for KE Handsworth.

[Petitpois]

I don't think that's right Petitpois:

If you are offered a first choice school, you don't go any waiting list. So if your first choice is KEVIHS, and you've scored highly enough for CHG, you will still not be offered Camp Hill. You will have a place at KE Handsworth. That's it.

If you've not scored enough for KEVIHS nor KECHG but have a place at QMHS, your waiting list place will be higher at the school which has the lower offer score - which will be KEVIHS, going on all previous years. The only thing that would make KECHG worth putting as second choice would be if KE Handsworth is so popular this year (with its larger number of places than Camp Hill) that the offer score is higher than that at Camp Hill. But that seems unlikely.

With six options on your list though, it doesn't matter if you put Camp Hill down second. Especially if you've scored highly enough for KE Handsworth.

Paragraph 1 - yes agreed
paragrapgh 2 - That's is my point. I cannot be sure of a place at KEVIHS. If I don't achieve that on 1/3, then I want to maximise the risk of a place at either KEVIHS or CHG.

What will play out is that I will definitely be offered WGHS (which is my third choice). Then the risk of getting my first or second pref depends entirely on applications this year to both of those schools.

Scenario A - everything is stable year on year

in this scenario CHG choice is moot, since I will certainly be offered my first choice KEVIHS

Scenario B - everything is unstable in Birmingham

In this scenario I get my guaranteed WGHS place, however the instability might be described by one or multiple variables. Since I only care about optimising my chance of a KE place. I back both horses. If a shock drop in CHG occurs combined with a shock rise in KEVIHS, I still avoid WGHS outcome. This optimises my chance of a KE place.

Scenario C

I only put KEVIHS and WGHS - it is much more binary. Either I make the cut for KEVIHS or I don't, in which case i get WGHS. I have completed preferences for 4-6, but these are really really moot, because there is no way that I will not get WGHS on 360+ score.

So my point holds if you want a KE over a WSC, then even if your below cut offs, then you should put your top pref 1st followed by the other higher cut off KE grammars.

If you don't put them you arbitrarily throw away a small chance if things are stable and much bigger chance if not stable. In most cases the risk effect will be very very small and marginal. However at the margins particularly where distance comes into play, to distinguish you from others on the same cut off score for that waiting list - the effect could be profound.

If you don't put it down the effect is simple 100% certain no chance, regardless of what might or might not change

[Three2go]

hi l think i better explain my reason for my order on my CAF form.
l didn't know that putting camp hill second would cause this much uproar. This is the first time I filled in a CAF form but I am sure the advice is put the choice of school in true preferences order or you risk not getting your first choice. Handsworth is my first choice if I get offered it Iam happy the rest of my backup doesn't matter, whereas if I put camp hill first with my score I stand a good chance of being offer camp hill thereby I am not going get my first preference that why CHG is second on CAF form because it is my second preference.

[Petitpois]

In a paragraph risk is not linear and changes markedly at the margins. All relevant research shows that when faced with a loss or a gain, people tend to act irrationally. The FO have all this data if it were released we could make better decisions.

Three2go that does make perfect sense. Your pretty much guaranteed KEVIHS I would say.

I initially put CHG first trying to maximise the chance of a KE. After discussion with NM, I switched round them round as KEVIHS is my first pref.

I think I am saying even though our risk situation is materially different, it is rationale for us both to include CHG on our forms as second choices. Even though in both cases, the effect will very likely be marginal. It does not make sense to exclude CHG, unless we are displaying the very type of behaviour that Prof Daniel Kahneman got his Nobel prize for.

[thirdtimemum]

I too have listed a higher scoring grammar below my first choice. My reasoning for this is that there is only a few points difference. It may be that BV suddenly increases in popularity. Scores rose by 2 marks last year despite having an extra 30 places.
My order :
BV
QMGS
KEA
Favourite local comp
Next best but not in a blue moon comp
Guaranteed but least favourite comp.

We didn't like HGS and feel that all the others are too far away to even consider. Besides on 222 we should hopefully get BV