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 Post subject: To PAN or not to PAN
PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:12 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:44 am
Posts: 1425
Can anyone confirm for definite that last years 1/3/15 cut off were driven by KE not offering over PAN. Or the converse were all offer days 1/3/14 and prior included an element of over PAN.

Has anyone any info about whether offers will over PAN or PAN this year.

I guess only the head of school allocations at Birmingham City Council knows the answer to that one.

Me haff fi ring me Julie, pon de mornin!


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 Post subject: Re: To PAN or not to PAN
PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:29 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:38 am
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Location: West Midlands / warks border
From what I learned from on here in March 2015 and from speaking to FO. 2015 offers were based on PAN, where as previous years have all been offered over PAN

The main reason behind this was the introduction of PP and the unknown factor regarding this.

I am expecting they will offer over PAN again for 2016, which will reduce the cut off scores that we saw in 2015. I would guess by around 2 points. This based on offering 20 places over PAN and approx 1 point equating to 10 people.


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 Post subject: Re: To PAN or not to PAN
PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:37 pm 
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Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:57 pm
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If you are correct about last year being on PAN then you are correct that offering over will reduce by around 2 points. Last years big increase was partly PAN but mostly a very big increase in sitters and less places due to pp. I think FW went up last year from 224 to 232. This year should be more stable.individual schools could rise due to being more popular but if the PAN scenario is accurate it's looking like the same score at worst or 1 or 2 down. Of course offering over pAN means less offers from waiting list so overall effect is nil by say June. to summarise drop in 2014 due to additional places and small increase in sitters, increase in 2015 due to drop in places and many more sitters and little change in 2016 as there are no extreme variables.


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 Post subject: Re: To PAN or not to PAN
PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:03 am 
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Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:38 am
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Location: West Midlands / warks border
I agree, the overall outcome will be roughly the same.

It means less people having an nervous waiting list wait!

When I spoke to FO last week, they said that not offering PAN this year created them a lot more work. So from FO point of view, offering over PAN would ease things a little for them. Less admin and less phone calls too from anxious parents.


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 Post subject: Re: To PAN or not to PAN
PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:35 am 
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Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:44 am
Posts: 1425
These last two posts are really helpful.

Over PAN = likely because less work and reduces cut offs on 1/3/16 (not just less nervy wait but also waiting list

PP = in some cases slight up pressure on cut offs due to higher PP uptake

Sitters = slight upward pressure due to marginal increase in sitters (100? more than last year)

It is not unreasonable to consider +/- 2 to cut offs so

Camp hill girls could be high 233, neutral 231, low 229. 234+ could probably relax a little. Conversely 229 and their is a risk that you could achieve a place with 229.


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 Post subject: Re: To PAN or not to PAN
PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:46 am 
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Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:57 pm
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So CHG for example will almost certainly be between 229 -233. I suppose if you keep doing this you end up with CHG will certainly be between 228-234 which is probably not that helpful!!! Unless you scored 235. Perhaps we should all stop guessing unless anyone finds it useful.


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 Post subject: Re: To PAN or not to PAN
PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:12 am 
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Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:44 am
Posts: 1425
Agree world cup guessing is pointless, but for anyone that is borderline and cares only about a GS place. They are having to makes decisions now based on risk.

Many people don't fully get risk. They think risk is all to do with bad outcomes. Risk does not care about bad (I did not get my place) Vs good (I did get my place)

Risk management is very much about optimising the decision you make now against an inherently uncertain outcomes. What I am trying to do is suggest that people optimise their risk of a good outcome, that all.

That the way I have been thinking about my CAF choice. Whether people know it or not (even those with very very high scores), we are all playing a risk management game right now. That is not guessing.

Cheers


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