2016 cut off scores - any predictions?

[nervousmom]

FW did have 36 PP places last year, but they increased their overall intake from 150 to 180, so effectively only lost 6 places to PP.

Could CHB drop? A number of people may see the 243 from offers day and even though may have a score of 238/240 may feel its not possible to get a place and won't put on CAF, then you could get others who have scores of 230-237 that feel they have nothing to lose and may end up with a place.

[Petitpois]

Based on the laws of supply and demand scores at worst should edge slightly up.

Bit of a strange quote that.

1) how many more took the exam this time round. How much does this push the cut off. Well often very little, 100 extra sitters spread over the SD spectrum, probably no more that a handful above 230 in the score, probably NONE above 240. So extra sitters have no impact

2) PP places. FW no impact this year, except cut of for PP will be much much higher.

3) Other schools did not use all their PP allocation last year, so in effect there will be a reduction in places, for standard sitters, as PP fills 100% this year.

4) Any significant change in pattern of first prefs will impact. Fortunately or not Sutton and Solihull create cluster and Ethnic effects in terms of preferences. Same effect for Five ways with Quinton, Bearwood, Harborne and the like adding to demand.

Does this market adhere to laws of supply and demand, not in my reckoning !

[worldcup14]

Hi nervousmom. FW increased their places to 180 in 2014 which is why scores fell for that intake year. Last year they took 36 back for pp, so there were only 144 for non pp so scores rose sharply. The increase and pp did not happen in the same year, hence the swing down then up. There will be a small decrease for some schools if pp take their full allocation, hence my comment that scores in some schools might drift up a point. There were more sitters so again the pressure is slightly up. However, as a general statement I stick with little change. Sitters must have an effect. If sitters fell to 1000 everyone would get a place and the cut off would be the lowest score. If 10,000 sat then more people would be in the top quartile and scores would be higher. People are over complicating it. I believe the head of CHB has been quoted as saying he does not expect much movement on the cut off score. Still clearly no one is going to convince anyone else so...

[worldcup14]

Bv did increase number and the score increased. It was the increase in numbers that held that increase at two points whilst FW for example rose from 224 to 232, a whopping eight points. I think CHB was similar.

[Petitpois]

I agree with all you have just said.

[Petitpois]

Bv did increase number and the score increased. It was the increase in numbers that held that increase at two points whilst FW for example rose from 224 to 232, a whopping eight points. I think CHB was similar.

When you see In 2015 that BV was one only two Grammars in Birmingham where preferences dropped (the other being Handsworth girls), it is reasonable to conclude such a swing suggests a drop in the popularity of this school.

You do not see that with the Camp hills boys or girls, It is also a huge contrast to FW with the 500 extra preferences (near 30% rise) expressed for FW.

In short a drop in preferences as well as extra places will have had an effect of limiting the rise in cut offs for BV. In addition for BV there are good alternative local comps that experienced significant rises in applications.

[nervousmom]

Hi nervousmom. FW increased their places to 180 in 2014 which is why scores fell for that intake year. Last year they took 36 back for pp, so there were only 144 for non pp so scores rose sharply. The increase and pp did not happen in the same year, hence the swing down then up. There will be a small decrease for some schools if pp take their full allocation, hence my comment that scores in some schools might drift up a point. There were more sitters so again the pressure is slightly up. However, as a general statement I stick with little change. Sitters must have an effect. If sitters fell to 1000 everyone would get a place and the cut off would be the lowest score. If 10,000 sat then more people would be in the top quartile and scores would be higher. People are over complicating it. I believe the head of CHB has been quoted as saying he does not expect much movement on the cut off score. Still clearly no one is going to convince anyone else so...

I didn't realise that! That explains the 224 score.

There are a larger number of places available now than 3 years ago when my DS this.

For example:- Alcester Grammer School had 90 places, this year they have 150!

PP - interesting reading your breakdown of the scores. You calculate approx 1000 kids score 220 plus, can you break it down more?

If its harder for a child to score 235+, how many, approx, would score 235 or more?

[Petitpois]

Hi I think I did the rough calc in response to some one not getting how just a few SD points knocks out significant numbers especially as you get nearer to 200.

I see several thinking I got 202 I am only a couple of points away from HGS cut off, not realising there are hundreds at the score points near the 200 mid point. I think there a likely to be circa 400 at 200 vs only 39 at 235.

How do you get these sort of numbers. Well 13.6% = 2nd standard deviation range on a standard bell curve, on a cohort of 5300 that gives you about 720 kids. Start 2nd deviation from lets say 225.

15x35=525 plus the other 195 spread across 225 to 240 gives you probably 39 kids scoring 235. Perhaps 60 kids scoring 225.

Its only rough but it only needs to be rough to illustrate.

BtW All the way through I had no idea where we were. If you want a simple but very easy way of assessing your kid watch the big school lottery documentary on you tube. I would take out the officials and just focus on the kids and parents. Especially the moms in Sutton park discussing what they don't want for their kids. I think that is must watch for any one STARting 11+ now.

[Casey0507]

Based on the laws of supply and demand scores at worst should edge slightly up.

Bit of a strange quote that.

1) how many more took the exam this time round. How much does this push the cut off. Well often very little, 100 extra sitters spread over the SD spectrum, probably no more that a handful above 230 in the score, probably NONE above 240. So extra sitters have no impact

2) PP places. FW no impact this year, except cut of for PP will be much much higher.

3) Other schools did not use all their PP allocation last year, so in effect there will be a reduction in places, for standard sitters, as PP fills 100% this year.

4) Any significant change in pattern of first prefs will impact. Fortunately or not Sutton and Solihull create cluster and Ethnic effects in terms of preferences. Same effect for Five ways with Quinton, Bearwood, Harborne and the like adding to demand.

Does this market adhere to laws of supply and demand, not in my reckoning !

How do you know that the PP cut off will be higher for FW this year?

[Petitpois]

Know is a strong word. The only people with a chance at guessing that are the FO with the dataset for this year.

I have been using anecdotal evidence, to make no more than informed guesses. However I know that significant numbers of parents have been eye balling FW. These parents come from Sandwell, Quinton etc. The options for them in terms of boys schools or mixed boys schools are relatively limited. You hear peoples concerns and watch what they do.

1) Many of the people in the schools in these areas will have current Free Schools Meals or will have got them themselves back on their feet after the gruelling times of 2008- to now (hence the 6 year rule for eligibility).
2) So you add the above to the fact that 500 extra people applied for FW last year
3) You hear kids saying that because they because they are FSM, they are guaranteed to have passed the 11+. I did not hear that sort of misunderstanding last year, but it tells you that PP has got well and truly into the consciousness of many parents.

Its all anecdotal and so take it with a pinch of salt, but I in a betting sense, believe that PP score will rise for FW this year. Quite a few will suddenly realise that the PP places are a scarce resource.