Firstly, last year was the first time the PP scheme was trialled in Birmingham and I am sure lot of parents weren't aware of ins and outs of the scheme. And I think we will start seeing a lot more PP applications in years to come.
I don't know the exact number of PP places available across all KE schools, but let's assume 150 places. And we also know that these places are spread between 5 or 6 schools. We also know that at the usual cut-off score for an average grammar (e.g 225), you could potentially have around 15 to 20 children on the same point. So if we have to accommodate an extra 150 children who are naturally able and also have the luxury of all the required resources at their disposal (books, private tutors etc), as compared to the truly disadvantaged children, it will require an extra 6 or 7 SD points which will be spread between 6 schools.
I think there are 120 PP places across KE schools. So 20% less than the assumption as per below. Four schools of which the two that had unused places were CHG and KEVIHS. My assumption is that the 8 places not used last year for KEVIHS will be taken this year
. I think those 8 places that will be taken will push the non PP cut off to 225 for KEVIHS. I also think it will push the CHG numbers higher. This creates a double whammy effect, because I know people on 230. If they get displaced from CHG they will take a place at KEVIHS.
My analysis is different from MSD, in that it assumes that the impact is more localised to those schools that did not achieve 100% PP uptake in year 1. Also numbers of children at each SD above 220 start to tail off massively. Of the 769 kids approx between 222 and 242, probably 569
of those sit between 222 and 232. with about 359 between 222 and 226.
I think the truth probably lies somewhere between MSD less harsh interpretation and mine. I know quite a few people on SD scores of 217 to 221, and I have to say I think anyone below 224 (not PP) ought to be extremely cautious about the prospects of a result on offer day (i am not expecting one). I am certainly praying that we will get a chance through the waiting list over the summer, but I genuinely think it is a scrape.
The one area I think offers some hope is the spread between offer day and waiting list acceptance. I think as long as the lowest offer on offer day is say 224/5 for KEVIHS then there is a realistic chance of a waiting list offer down to 220. Also perhaps PP take is still lower. The head at Handsworth told me last year that the expectation was that PP take would take several years to get up to 100%, but 80% in year 1 seems PDQ to me.
KEA: PAN = 120 but 0 PP places
KECHB: PAN = 120 - 22 places of which 100% taken in 2015
KEFW: PAN = 180 - 36 places of which 100% taken in 2015
KECHG: PAN = 150 - 30 places of which 26 taken (this might be out)
KEVIHS PAN = 160 - 32 places of which 24 taken (80%), resulting in 219 on offer day and 215 from waiting list
SCGSG: PAN = 180 0 PP place
BV: PAN = 128 0 PP places
HGB: PAN = 150 0 PP places
So in a nutshell, if the above 150 children happen to be eligible for PP scheme, the overall cut-off score across NON-PP or PP will only marginally reduce by a point or two. Now, out of the nearly 6000 children taking the test next year, would it not be reasonable to assume that around 2 to 3% of overall cohort might not be truly disadvantaged but still be eligible for a PP place.
No system is perfect, but that's another debate