Bham Consortium Cut-Off predictions 2016 entry

[quasimodo]

We'll I am stumped for once!!

PP

Not for long Everyone makes a valuable contribution in their own way.

[JaneEyre]

That was great reading Jane, but I think you have unfortunately got the wrong end of the stick. I can't see where PP has suggested that his children cannot be successful in this country as you seem to be asserting in your post.

Here is the post written by PP that you and I can read, as a response to this sentence posted as a conclusion by openminded:
'People need to bear all this common sense stuff in mind when looking around at the various cohorts in schools.' (page 2 of the thread)

Sadly some do, some don't. I have made decisions already that I cannot undo, partly based on my experience and perception of certain cohorts. I don't believe I am a bad person for doing that, it is all the others with their experiences and perceptions getting in the way of my aspirations. We all try and reconcile self interest with the wider good. PP

I deduce from it that she (/he?) has decided on her (/his?) order of GS on her (/his?) CAF taking into consideration the ethnicity of the pupils at the different schools. That saddens me greatly…
I know I can misread sometimes when I am too quick but for me, these sentences are rather clear and this kind of mindset makes me afraid, whether it comes from a white British or a person from an ethnic minority… That is all…

Have a lovely day! Enjoy it! We are lucky to live in a country in peace, where most perople are genuinely good-hearted!

[Petitpois]

Mmmmmmmmh! You should deduce that i could not care about the ethnic mix. My point was that when such high academic outcomes are on offer for such a low SD score, 207 in the case of Handsworth Grammar, it made sense to discard such considerations. Of course it is always easier to suggest other people let go of their concerns, rather than let go of your own. My words were an attempt to acknowledge this. I knew I did not make my decisions in a bubble of objectivity. Indeed grammar at all costs was my mantra, but ethnicity was not a driver. Social mobility was.

[SSINGH77]

What about Queen Mary's Grammar School???

[Petitpois]

Not sure your what your asking? It is a very good school and lots of people have good things to say about it. Indeed its sixth form seems to have a growing reputation also.

[SSINGH77]

What do you think the cut off will be for this school??

[Petitpois]

QMHS was 319 last year and Wolverhampton Girls 321.

I can't see any reason for a significant rise. If people are lucky there might (just might be a small drop.)

The reason I say this is not scientifically based on anything other than, I got a sense that quite a few kids were just not ready on that very hot July day. Doing NVR bond books in the backs of cars probably served little in the way of adding anything at all, to higher SD scores. I felt terrible for the girl that got told off by her mother for having never seen an NVR type question, and therefore struggling to attempt them. That said I have a good chat with a father who did nothing with his daughter for the KE, and then claimed the KE questions were all trick questions designed to get certain types to pass. Make of this what you will, probably not much, as there are bound to be parents who are inexperienced in jumping over academic hurdles, in any population.

The most likely outcome for us is an offer from WGHS, although we are kind of praying It does not happen. If it doesn't then we will be freeing up a space and avoiding logistical issues.

[quasimodo]

QMHS was 319 last year and Wolverhampton Girls 321.

I can't see any reason for a significant rise. If people are lucky there might (just might be a small drop.)

The reason I say this is not scientifically based on anything other than, I got a sense that quite a few kids were just not ready on that very hot July day. Doing NVR bond books in the backs of cars probably served little in the way of adding anything at all, to higher SD scores. I felt terrible for the girl that got told off by her mother for having never seen an NVR type question, and therefore struggling to attempt them. That said I have a good chat with a father who did nothing with his daughter for the KE, and then claimed the KE questions were all trick questions designed to get certain types to pass. Make of this what you will, probably not much, as there are bound to be parents who are inexperienced in jumping over academic hurdles, in any population.

The most likely outcome for us is an offer from WGHS, although we are kind of praying It does not happen. If it doesn't then we will be freeing up a space and avoiding logistical issues.

PP I think SS was asking your views on the likely cut off for QM Grammar which is the boys school and I am aware his son has taken the entrance exams this year.

[Petitpois]

arrhh! ok. Not even enough limited knowledge to speculate on the boys, which was 324, so no idea really. I think people like its military links, so it will always be popular for that reason. Does anyone know if more boys sat this year I recall 1400 sitting the girl.

Some have suggest that 2007 was a low birth rate year, but I don't think it was. So that could drive slight rises across the board, in this years exams. The one to watch out for is 2018, there is a significant population spike for that year, so cut offs will rise then.

I have always wondered whether EU and non EU migration inflows will be having a impact. It seems to me that kids born here have a better chance. In other words are rising numbers of kids sitting, but is the rise from migration, tending to having a dampening effect on the rise of cut off scores?. It was interesting that raw averages seemed to be lower than everyone was expecting this year.

[quasimodo]

arrhh! ok. Not even enough limited knowledge to speculate on the boys, which was 324, so no idea really. I think people like its military links, so it will always be popular for that reason. Does anyone know if more boys sat this year I recall 1400 sitting the girl.

Some have suggest that 2007 was a low birth rate year, but I don't think it was. So that could drive slight rises across the board, in this years exams. The one to watch out for is 2018, there is a significant population spike for that year, so cut offs will rise then.

I have always wondered whether EU and non EU migration inflows will be having a impact. It seems to me that kids born here have a better chance. In other words are rising numbers of kids sitting, but is the rise from migration, tending to having a dampening effect on the rise of cut off scores?. It was interesting that raw averages seemed to be lower than everyone was expecting this year.

When I enquired with WGHS in March 2015 how many sat the exam for WGHS I was given the following information by the Headmistress's PA who was very helpful and is a really nice lady.
2013 for 2014 entry
Sat the Entrance Test at WGHS 876

2014 for 2015 entry
Sat the Entrance Test at WGHS 1032

The numbers this year will be higher.This is one of Five schools in this consortium.It doesn't mean everyone who sat the exam is aiming for a place in that school or another school in the consortium.As examples we sat our exam at QM Girls although it was not the school we were aiming to gain admission if successful.Similarly there were many taking it as a mock from the surrounding areas and across the country.

The letter from Queen Mary Boys this year with the marks for the exam in this consortium(2015 for 2016 entry) stated the last admitted boy to the school for 2014 scored 318 and in 2015 scored 319.These were clearly boys from the waiting list.This year there are 30 extra places.

The pressures are upward in this neighbouring consortium to Birmingham but the 30 extra places for Boys in Walsall should prevent entry marks rising for QM boys.In Birmingham the pressure is upward but admission marks for non PP children shouldn't rise more than 1 or 2 marks from last years cut offs in March 2015.In speculating your guess is as good as mine.