One Month and Counting

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Petitpois
Posts: 1440
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:44 am

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by Petitpois »

Firsttimemum wrote: The only exception may be the handsworth schools ( both boys and girls) as both seem to be increasingly popular.

I'm dreading how the marks are going to look in a few years time when dd and ds take the exam. It looks like bv next year will be taking pp into account too.
Handsworth girls experienced a big drop in total number of applications last year, down to 972 from I think near 1100 year prior to that. It will rebound this year. Rightly or wrongly it has got a really good pastoral reputation. It winds people up when you say CHG does not, but my fear is that there could be a shift away from one to the other (hence my point about the small risk of this year being an outlier).

Handsworth Boys - Peoples motivations and fears won't change much year on year,so expect the same this year.

On the second point, depending on how things go, I am keeping options open for Pupil Premium, especially if I think the younger one is a bit borderline, but otherwise agree 2017 could be a very tough year, especially when increased birth rate feeds through. Could 6,000 register that year? Very possible with birth rate and migration flows.
shakey
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:51 pm

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by shakey »

Petitpois wrote:Hi MSD - my understanding is

2015 for 2016 entry - 5574 sat the exam
2014 for 2015 entry - 5300 sat exam

So an extra 274 to spread across the bell curve. My take on that is as follows. Using standard deviations I predict that 42 kids will be in the 2nd and 3rd standard deviation

In essence

37 more kids in the band 221-239 (2nd standard deviation 13.8%)
5 more Kids in the band 240 - 299 (3rd standard deviation 2%)

You can see from this perspective, spread those numbers across a couple of schools, especially Camp Hill boys and the five places don't make a great deal of difference, given the already high bar for them.

However the second standard deviation means that all the other schools have to accommodate about 6/7 higher scoring kids than in previous years (i.e. in the ranger 221-239). That would account for a couple of points rise in most schools e.g. KEFW, CHG, KEA.

I think additionally you have to assume that places get squeezed from the other end, from greater take up of PP places. The most susceptible to this is KEVIHS with 8 further places likely to be taken by school meals. So add another couple of points and there are strong reasons to think 220 will not do for KEVIHS this year. There is a third factor, the number of applicants to KEVIHS, which dropped significantly in 2015. The only random factor that might have influenced people there is that there was a double shooting incident near the school, two days before CAF applications closed (nothing to do with the school I might add). I am praying it will have put the people from solihull / elsewhere. Talk about clutching at straws though!!!!!!!!!!!! If it has not and there is a good rebound on applications to KEVIHS, this would further frank my prediction of 225.

I think this really does push me into thinking the lowest score on offer day for KEVIHS will be around the 225 mark.
I wouldn't worry about the lovely folk from Solihull- many from that leafy suburb don't even realise that Handsworth exists (or pretend they don't know it exists) :wink: :roll:
Petitpois
Posts: 1440
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:44 am

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by Petitpois »

Shakey, when we visited, there was a lovely humble girl from Solihull, very bright, even in the context. She told us about how long it took for the green bus to get her there. She said that after year 7 her mum (notice singular), could no longer afford the green bus, so she was quite happily getting the wm bus into town from soho hill. Anyway suffice to say, that not everyone from Solihull lives in Tudor Grange catchment or Knowle etc, so it was only Tongue in cheek. If Quasi is not on the money, then I will just have to learn a bit of wolvo.
shakey
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:51 pm

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by shakey »

Believe me - very few dps will want to send theirs lovely and humble dcs to handsworth or Aston from Solihull- I've heard these murmurings numerous times over the last few years. I'm not sure whether it's a fear factor or a snobbery one.
They'd sooner send them to a half decent local comp. rather than sending their dcs to a decent gs in 'another universe'
Petitpois
Posts: 1440
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:44 am

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by Petitpois »

I know exactly the sort of parents you reference. That said Handsworth girls come out as rounded confident individuals as well as with top academic results, so that is increasingly giving parents pause for thought, in the choices they make and the criteria they choose to employ in those decisions.
meldan103
Posts: 42
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:42 pm

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by meldan103 »

I sincerely hope my dd gains a place in Handsworth come 1st March. We visited 3 open evenings within the last 2.5 years and were impressed each time. (Just my personal experience and opinion)
quasimodo
Posts: 3854
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:47 pm

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by quasimodo »

meldan103 wrote:I sincerely hope my dd gains a place in Handsworth come 1st March. We visited 3 open evenings within the last 2.5 years and were impressed each time. (Just my personal experience and opinion)
I have no doubt your dd will get a place with her score.The anxiety is always there until you see the offer of a place.I see they had their best year for Oxbridge offers of 11. It is an excellent school which I have been around a number of times over the years and the quality of work I have seen produced is always of a high standard.
In the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years.

Abraham Lincoln
Petitpois
Posts: 1440
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:44 am

Re: One Month and Counting

Post by Petitpois »

Meldan 10 with 246 you are a statistical certainty for Handsworth and I would have still put money on your second choice of camp hill girls. Our neighbours and relatives are on 230 but choices are reversed in one case and the same in the latter. Still I am certain that there has been a huge move against CHG due to pastoral issues. But only time will tell.
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