Thinking ahead - waiting lists

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PamB
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:24 pm

Re: Thinking ahead - waiting lists

Post by PamB »

I put the risk of that outcome as 33% to happen 66% not to happen. However 33% is still a very good risk to be working with, so neither of us can honestly rule out a result on 1/3/16c
Looking at your DD score as someone more detached, I'd say your prediction is overly pessimistic. I'd be very surprised if your DD wasn't accepted at KEHG. If it doesn't happen on 1st March, I'd say 99.5% from the waiting list. Everything that has been posted suggests that cut offs will be very similar to last year, with possibly a shift of 1-2 scores max.
Be more positive about your DD chances!
Petitpois
Posts: 1440
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:44 am

Re: Thinking ahead - waiting lists

Post by Petitpois »

I am hopeful, especially about the waiting list, where I agree that it would be really harsh not to get something from the waiting list, with that score.

There were people on 1/3/15 with 219 that had refusals, so were are only three SD point away from that last year. In people terms there were probably on offer day

1 kid on 219
1 ... on 220
2 ... on 221
1 ... on 222
3 ... on 223

We know that 8 PP places are up for grabs this year. They were available last year, but were not taken. It is reasonable to assume they will be taken this year. That provides some protection for those hoping to obtain places with scores between 210 and 214, but I do think PP cut off should still rise, perhaps to 212??

I personally just cannot see non PP cut off, being lower than 223 for this school, as the places get transfered to those on Free School Meals (+ higher numbers of applicants).

PP
OldTrout
Posts: 386
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:21 pm

Re: Thinking ahead - waiting lists

Post by OldTrout »

Have only quickly skimmed this and agree the issue for all state grammars offering pupil premium places will be have those places been filled. If not offers will go to the pp students by score rank first.

Now in terms of wait lists 2 things:

The LEA will run a wait list based on your higher choices up until Christmas 2015

After that you need to contact individual schools.

There is movement into state grammars beyond Christmas and my advice is contact the school you are interested in just before Christmas to ensure you are on their wait list in early 2016.

Two of little fishes friends transferred from her state comp to a state grammar in January 2014 (this was the Sept 2013 11+ cohort). So everything is still to play for if you are high up on the wait list!

Hope that helps.
Petitpois
Posts: 1440
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:44 am

Re: Thinking ahead - waiting lists

Post by Petitpois »

Might be worth reminding yourself of what to look out for come allocations day. The lowest cut off reported, will let you know whether you have a chance or not.
Petitpois wrote:Casey apart from the info above on number of offers made and the experience of longer term members that waiting lists moved more quickly than when over PAN offers were issued. I think waiting lists play out something like this

1) Offers day
2) Offers days +1 = should have a good idea of lowest cut off day offer score
3) Offers day +5 = depth info will start to emerge e.g. people will post I am 3 points below cut off and 54th on the waiting list for XYZ school
4) Offers days + 5 weeks (lets say 8/4/15). 80/20 period. 80% of people that are going to get an offer off the waiting list will get one in this period (due to no offers over PAN)....To note keep an eye on the depth info that emerges at 3, as this will be an extremely strong indicator as to whether you'll get an offer off the waiting list - see my worked example below.
5) Offer day >5 weeks - things settle down into a long slog, but don't give up hope, because people get offers right up to the first weeks of term. However good news stories thin massively and you get excruciating tales of people on the same score, but being pipped by factors like nearest distance to school.

Worked Example 1 DD score 223 - KEVIHS - Lowest Cut off score on offers day = 227.

1) No offer - placed on waiting list
2) Lowest offer on offers day confirmed as 227
3) Someone posts they have 223, but are 54th on waiting list
4) No offer from waiting list in period, however DD moves to 8th on waiting list by 8th April
5) No offer between April 16th and 6/9/15, but 1st on waiting list at 6/9/15
6) Offer made first week of term after late identification of non starter. (lucky break scenario) = final off cut off = 223

Worked Example 2 DD score 223 - KEVIHS - Lowest Cut off day score =224

1) No offer - placed on waiting
2) ditto - as above
3) Someone posts they have 223, but are 9th on the waiting list
4) Offer made at 223 by 8th April at score of 223. In this case I would suggest the offer would have been made within two to three week of offer day as the waiting list will move quickly for those within 2 SD point of score ie 222 (before end of March certainly).
5) further offers down to 221 in period between 8/4 and 6/9/15 = final cut off = 221


In both Scenario's it probably worth contacting the FO and find out where you are on the waiting list if your DC is within 2 SD points. I would not be initially worried by a high number, and would focus much more on being with a 3 point range overall 1/3.

If this is the case you have a strong chance of good news before mid April - the further outside of that the less chance of any result. At the Margins - ie 4 SD points below cut off day score and you could be looking at a long summer.

To be explicit the above assume 100% take up of Pupil Premium Places. In such a scenario I presume there are in effect two waiting lists. If the last person in on the PP list did so with a score of 215, then say if someone drops out, my assumption is the main waiting list does not move, but the next PP person takes up that place down to qualifying score. If no further PP waiting list at 209, the the place is released to the main waiting list.

In short one of the first questions to ascertain after low cut off scores on 1/3 is whether the PP 20% places has been fully awarded. If answer is no then main waiting list will behave as last year. If answer is yes, then one presumes main waiting list will behave similarly, but there will be an additional PP waiting list dynamic going on, which will be new for 2015.
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