Birthrate for Sept 2016 intake

[nervousmom]

My DS was 2013 intake, but his primary is a 2 form intake and was over subscribed.

However, it is a catholic primary school and we were on the edge of the catchment and did get a place.

I had concluded myself that the previous year would have been a higher birthrate, for those wanting a '2000' baby.

The next few hours are going to be interesting

[thirdtimemum]

2012 729,674
2011 723,913
2010 723,165
2009 706,248
2008 708,711
2007 690,013
2006 669,601
2005 645,835
2004 639,721
2003 621,469
2002 596,122
2001 594,634
2000 604,441
1999 621,872


Numbers of Births - E&W - obviously calendar, not academic years

Ouch 2007 and 2010 will be painful. I have a 2007 and 2009 child which may mean trouble for us!

[Petitpois]

2007 690,013
2006 669,601
2005 645,835
2004 639,721


Numbers of Births - E&W - obviously calendar, not academic years

Still rise in births between 04 to 05 is 0.96% whereas increase in sitters from last year to this is 5.17%

Rise in birth rate for the following two years is 3.68% and 3.05%, exclusive of net migration which has been largely younger persons, many with kids. So that needs to be added. Out reach is likely to be driving up engagement, with kids from under privileged increasingly having a pop.

Its going to be a real challenge for sitters this September and beyond!!!!!!!!

However I wonder whether that 0.96% rise, points to a relatively stable year for cut offs, regardless of the 5.17% increase in sitters, for this year only.

BTW thanks herman,

re my earlier comments live births is not the same thing as the birth rate and this did drop after the recession, kicked in

PP

[Petitpois]

The BBC have been reading this thread and put out some useful clarification!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-35671570" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Birmingham City Council, where the supply of secondary places is already tight, called the current system "a mess".
The council found secondary places for all pupils who applied last year, but 11% of those were in another local authority area and 6.6% were in schools which families had not included on their list of six preferences

[Wolves mum]

I was explaining to DH that 2005 has a low birthrate, his response was "does that mean he gets extra points?"

I think this wait is driving us all bonkers!

[Petitpois]

I was explaining to DH that 2005 has a low birthrate, his response was "does that mean he gets extra points?"

I think this wait is driving us all bonkers!

Yep for sure. I have been up in the night and have two ill DD's to boot.

Back to the future was on last night and DD1 was asking about whether it was possible to go back a meet her great grandmother or grandfather that died in France on the 1/July/1916. I tried to explain the arrow of time and the second law of thermodynamics really badly and gave up.

Anyhow if any one has any maths geniuses, I strongly recommend this website. I stopped thinking about about scale, when I read once that there are about 10 to the power 80 atoms in the observable universe. An unimaginably large number, that seems incredibly small small and insignificant once you have read three of four of the chapters. It is replete with grammatical and spelling mistakes, but is amazing from a maths perspective. I never knew anything could be so big.

https://sites.google.com/site/largenumbers/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;