Bishop Vesey 2017 cut off score

[bus stop]

What would be the effect of the pupil premium on Bishop Vesey 2017 cut off scores?

BV increased the number of places from 128 to 160 in September 2015 but 2017 is their first year for setting aside 30 pupil premium places. So you would have thought that the cut off scores would have gone down during those previous years but not so:

2014
Places - 128
Score- 217

2015
Places - 160
Score - 219

2016
Places - 160
Score - 220

I notice that there was a big leap in cut off scores for other boys grammar schools between 2014 and 2015 when it seems they introduced PP for first time:
Aston: score went from 2014 to 224
CHB: 235 / 243
Five Ways: 224 / 232 (boys and girls school)

I have read elsewhere on this forum it being said that a score of 6 above last years cut off score of 220 should be safe but not going by what happened at those other schools unless there is some other explanation for this.

[Petitpois]

2014
Places - 128
Score- 217

2015
Places - 160
Score - 219

2016
Places - 160
Score - 220

I notice that there was a big leap in cut off scores for other boys grammar schools between 2014 and 2015 when it seems they introduced PP for first time:
Aston: score went from 2014 to 224
CHB: 235 / 243
Five Ways: 224 / 232 (boys and girls school)

A good post. No one really knows. Factors to consider are the loss off 32 places which you have already got, but the real determinant is

1) How many apply (vs look at alternatives e.g. Arthur Terry)
2) How many that do apply are at each point score around the cut off. I don't have the break down for BV last year, but for another Grammar where the cut off was 223, it looked like roughly like this, this year
3) How pupil premium applicants exist and will definitely take a place if offered.

225 - 10 applicants (places awarded on 1/3)
224 - 9 applicants (places awarded on 1/3)
223 - 13 applicants (1 place awarded 1/3 the other 12 were waiting list based on distance to the school)
222 - 8 applicants (waiting list)
221 - 16 applicants "
220 - 14 applicants "
219 - 19 applicants "

Now it is much easier to to see (other things equal) what will happen to cut off scores with the reallocation of places to pupil premium applicants. Last year those kids would not have got places. THIS YEAR they do. That means the 19 applicants at 224 and 225 do not now get places. Continuing the extrapolation, you probably have to take out scores 226 and 227, before you have covered enough applicants.

I think it is probably a mistake to compare with the others too much. BV has about 1000 preferences expressed on the CAF each year whereas KEFW was 1800 and 1700 in the last two years. The other thing to remember is that CHB dropped back to 239 this year.

In respect of the CHB drop back someone suggested that parents had not applied at the 243 level, convinced some not to bother applying.

Furthermore the next guess is how many of those 32 PP places actually get taken. I think it is reasonable to assume about 75%, so only about 20-24 places will actually get taken. If that turned out to be true (and it was for the others in some cases), then those 8 places probably mean a whole point LOWER on the cut off score.

My only advice is don't be the person that loses a place at a very very good school, because you incorrectly second guess what everyone else, may or may not do.

Hope that helps and do remember even if the cut off on 1/3 is 226, then there are still opportunities from the waiting list.

[Turtlegirl]

The leap in 1st March cut off scores in 2015 occurred mainly because Birmingham City Council ruled that schools were not allowed to offer over PAN, which the KE Foundation schools always had done. See notes here http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/forum/ ... 8&start=10

[Petitpois]

Well remembered.

Failing all that aunty beeb is doing an article today on how to manage uncertainty!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37697460" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;