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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:26 pm 
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Does anyone know how many children have applied for the grammar schools (king edwards foundations) this year? we're especially interested in 5ways. We know there are lots of variables but it would be interesting to know before the 8th November.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 3:18 pm 
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Bear in mind that the number you see at 5ways will not be the total number applying. Various other non-KE centres will be in use. When Year 12 daughter did exam, she took hers at Handsworth Grammar.

There will be loads of people there, but both my daughters took their tests in classrooms rather than huge assembly halls.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:02 pm 
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I should think you can assume it's in the region of 1700 give or take for Five Ways, it's been around that for the last few years. As far as I can tell, this year's demographic cohort is a little smaller than last year but probably bigger than the year before. But I'm making bricks without straw there.

Mike


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:25 am 
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Don't forget that if it is 1,700 this will be the total number who have put 5-ways somewhere on the LEA list. The number who will have 5-Ways as their 1st preference will be significantly less than that.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:12 am 
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True, but how significant is that now? The only reasonably firm number is the number who have got it on the form "somewhere" since you can be fairly confident that the vast majority would grab the place with both hands if it was offered - unless they've already been offered a higher preference, and that's an unknown number. Total number of actual individuals applying to the foundations (as opposed to total number of times a school appears on someone's form) might be helpful to give some indication of how many would be in that position.

Mike


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:31 pm 
mike1880 wrote:
True, but how significant is that now? The only reasonably firm number is the number who have got it on the form "somewhere" since you can be fairly confident that the vast majority would grab the place with both hands if it was offered - unless they've already been offered a higher preference, and that's an unknown number. Total number of actual individuals applying to the foundations (as opposed to total number of times a school appears on someone's form) might be helpful to give some indication of how many would be in that position.

Mike


I believe the total number of children applying to the KE grammar schools each year is normally a bit over 3,500, so with 5 schools a child would stand an average statistical chance of slightly below 1 in 7 of getting a place at one of the schools. A boy wanting to go to Camp Hill would have to perform considerably better than a girl wanting to go to Handsworth, though.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:09 pm 
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Hi All

KES Parent is correct, the total number applying is about 3,500 for all KE Grammar

To get a view of the real probability of getting a place at a specific KE grammar, taking into account those that apply to multiple schools or reject a place, it's best to look at the pass scores as those are directly related to the candidate percentile.

If you take the pass scores for the last successful candidate for the last 5 years and select the highest (worse case) score. (from the sticky post).

Add 1 to allow for distance factors.

Divide by 3 and round up (to get the rounded score per paper)

You can then compile the following table from Age Standardisation Stats:-

SCHOOL, TOTAL SCORE, AV SCORE, PERCENTILE, PROBABILITY
KECHB, 348, 116, 86th, 1:7.1
KEFW, 331, 111, 77th, 1:4.4
KECHG, 330, 110, 74th, 1:3.9
KEAston, 329, 110, 74th, 1:3.1
KEHG, 320, 107, 68th, 1:3.1

So 1 in 7 is about correct for KECHB but it's quite a bit lower for other schools


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:59 pm 
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I don't think that adds up though, since that implies about a 1 in 4 or so chance overall rather than the approx. 1 in 6 that you get by allocating 600-ish places amongst 3500 children. (And humour demands that I point out that the numbers mean that the only way to make the percentiles and standardisation vs. number of successes add up is to assume that KE applicants are, overall, well below average attainment...)

Mike


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 6:44 am 
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Hi Mike

I think it probably does add up - don't forget there are lots who reject a place. A couple of years ago Camp Hill boys made 124 offers for only 93 places and they didn't end up over PAN, so for that school at least you had a 39% offer rejection rate in that year.

A large proportion of the children who go to KES, KEHS and EHS will also apply for KE Foundation places as well and many will be successful but ultimately reject the offer of a place because they prefer an Independent offer.

Maybe not as many in the current economic climate will do that though!


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:55 am 
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Yes, that would do it. I admit to being slightly baffled why you'd spend ~£70k if you didn't have to, but that's probably because we haven't got it, despite what the current KE bursar thinks we should have left over!

Mike


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