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 Post subject: Enough places?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 7:06 pm 
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Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2007 4:47 pm
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Location: South Bucks
I met someone recently who insisted that only 50% of Bucks children who pass the Bucks 11+ are given a Grammar School place because there aren't enough places.

He claimed he had seen the statistics reported somewhere. I thought this was rubbish and suggested that perhaps he was talking about children who sat the test (who could come from anywhere, in and out of county) versus the number who were allocated a place and accepted. He said no, that wasn't it.

I know they might not get allocated their preferred school, but does Bucks really not have enough GS places for all Bucks children who qualify? Where on earth has he got this idea?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:10 pm 
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Location: Buckinghamshire
Complete nonsense Drummer, as you say, and not even worthy of addition to the Bucks "Myths & Legends" sticky.

There are 2136 places at Bucks grammars. The number of children passing the test who live in Bucks has been around or below 1450 for as long as I have stats (5 years). There are never more than 1,000 appeals and the success rate at appeal is stable at around 40%, which adds another 400 children, not all of whom live in Bucks anyway.

Total places: 2136
Total children: 1500 or fewer

Nuff said?

Sally-Anne

P.S. It can't even be the numbers for OoC children, because there are around 800 - 900 qualifiers, and they take up the remaining ca. 600 places, so 75% of them get a place.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:55 am 
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Location: Chiltern District, Bucks
Agreed - total nonsense.

Perhaps he meant only 50% of non-Bucks qualifiers get places at Bucks grammar schools. That would still be optimistic but at least a bit closer to the truth. (Sally-Anne, not sure where you got 75% from?)

About 96% of all Bucks-based qualifying pupils received their first preference grammar school in 2006. That stat won't change much year-to-year.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:55 pm 
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He was very sure about what he thought he knew which was as stated above.

Thanks for the numbers, I knew it was nonsense but wanted some detail to give him.

It really does beggar belief though how an educated, normally switched-on, level-headed person would accept such a ridiculous assertion as true without checking out the facts.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:57 pm 
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Location: Buckinghamshire
Or he could be referring to the article printed in "The Times"(?) some time back where it said only 50% of Bucks children get their first choice school. Tabloid journalism totally ignoring the fact that Bucks is an opt-out system and most children put a grammar school as first choice and will obviously not get it if they don't qualify.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:54 pm 
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Location: Chiltern District, Bucks
Some other real numbers here....

http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/forum/11plus/viewtopic.php?p=76399


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:05 pm 
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Location: Buckinghamshire
Dad40 wrote:
(Sally-Anne, not sure where you got 75% from?)


2009 Qualifcation figures
Partner Out: 229
Out (indep/maint): 618
Total non-Bucks residents: 847

Places available: 2136
Bucks qualifiers: 1509
Remaining places: 627

847 kids, 627 places = 74%

The frustrating thing, as always, is that Bucks own numbers disagree, although not by much. In the self-same document the number of non-Bucks qualifiers is 775, which gives 80%.

N.B. None of these figures include successful appeals - they are as at 21 November 2008.

I think Andy is right - the 50% he is quoting comes from the number of first-choice schools received by all applicants, regardless of qualification for the 11+. That "fact" was bandied around by a lot of newspapers after National Allocations Day this year.

S-A


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:44 pm 
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Location: Chiltern District, Bucks
OK I see where you get it from. The only issue is that not all the places are filled. The actual number of places filled is usually nearer 2000 than
2136 so more like 60% of OOCs win a place.#

But yes that is much higher than previous years as it looks like the Bucks resident qualifiers have continued to reduce while the OOCs have increased (as more of them are applying for the test year-on-year).

# I'd be interested to find out whether it is still around 2000 places being filled. I imagine that because of geography, OOCs are less likely to be able to take up a place as they are more likely to live too far from a grammar school with an available place. Therefore if more OOCs are qualifying, in theory, fewer grammar places are capable of being filled.....if you follow my logic.... :D

PS: Have you got a link for those numbers? Are they in the Admissions Forum minutes?

LATE ADDITION: I've belatedly noticed your comment about it not including successful appeals. That always has a major impact on OOCs' prospects of winning a place. So wouldn't be surprised if still fewer than 50% of OOC qualifiers actually take up a place.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:48 pm 
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Posts: 625
Hi Sally-Anne

600 places are offered to children who are out of county
and
400 places are offered on appeal to children who do not reach the qualification standard.

Therefore of the 2136 places available only 1136 of those places are taken up by children who live in Bucks and achieve the qualification mark.

That is about 53%.

Surely, residents of Bucks would expect this figure to be much higher?

The 400 places offerd to children on appeal makes a mockery of the Bucks testing process.
We would have to accept that either there are 400 exceptional circumstances or we would have to acknowledge that there is a back door entrance policy operating in Bucks in order to fill Grammar school places.

Regards

Mike


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:58 pm 
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Mike -

A you well know, the LA does not run the appeals. Each appeal is heard by an IAP - they have NO interest in whether GS are full. In fact they could allow every appeal or none - it's up to them.

30% of those taking the 11+ qualify - that has remained static for many years -


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