Enough places?

[Dad40]

Mike, That doesn't sound right. Sally-Anne's numbers are clearly accurate which means that 1509 of Bucks residents 'passed' (let's use that word instead of 'qualify' - a word which includes successful appeals). Therefore that is roughly the number of places taken up by children who live in Bucks and who achieved the pass mark.

However my argument would be that the 627 'remaining places' are no such thing, as one can't count the remaining places until the appeals have gone through. In other words, 600 places will not have been offered to children who are out of county. It's probably more like 400 (or at least a three figure number with a 3 or a 4 in front of it). That would tally with previous years.

[Guest55]

Yes - the appeals happen before places are allocated - so you cannot say how many OOC places will be available each year.

Some schools will have NO places for OOC - only those GS near a county border or 'less popular' ones will have any places because of the distance rules.

[pippi]

The frustrating thing, as always, is that Bucks own numbers disagree, although not by much.

Is that due to the "late testers"?

[Sally-Anne]

Hi Dad40 and Mike

The only issue is that not all the places are filled. The actual number of places filled is usually nearer 2000 than 2136 so more like 60% of OOCs win a place.

No - it is just that the places aren't in the right area or the kids don't accept them - they go private or go to other OoC schools. I think the proximity of the Berks grammars is the reason for the unfilled places - so many kids take both the Berks and Bucks exams, and if they pass both, accept the Berks school.

it looks like the Bucks resident qualifiers have continued to reduce while the OOCs have increased (as more of them are applying for the test year-on-year).

Bucks resident qualifiers:
09 - 1509
08 - 1482
07 - 1481
06 - 1796

2006 was of course an exceptionally large cohort. The cohort is now static, the pass rate is virtually static, therefore the number of Bucks resident qualifiers is also static.

OoC Qualification numbers show no increase:
04 - 777
05 - 801
06 - 720
07 - 778
08 - 750

LATE ADDITION: I've belatedly noticed your comment about it not including successful appeals. That always has a major impact on OOCs' prospects of winning a place.

Why? These are selection appeals, not transfer appeals, and the child's location doesn't enter into it.

PS: Have you got a link for those numbers? Are they in the Admissions Forum minutes?

I think it was the Admissions forum - try the minutes from the first meeting after results day - usually January.

600 places are offered to children who are out of county
and 400 places are offered on appeal to children who do not reach the qualification standard.

Therefore of the 2136 places available only 1136 of those places are taken up by children who live in Bucks and achieve the qualification mark.

That is about 53%.

Surely, residents of Bucks would expect this figure to be much higher?

Mike that is virtually the complete opposite of what actually happens. Places are allocated in the following order: In-area Siblings, In Area Children, Out Area Siblings then all others. Successful appeal candidates are considered in the same order, and no, I am not going to open up the tedious debate about appeals again. It is Off Topic anyway.

(Original erroneous statement removed - Sally-Anne) The system accommodates 100% of all Bucks resident children, with plenty of places left over.

However my argument would be that the 627 'remaining places' are no such thing, as one can't count the remaining places until the appeals have gone through. In other words, 600 places will not have been offered to children who are out of county. It's probably more like 400 (or at least a three figure number with a 3 or a 4 in front of it). That would tally with previous years.

We have no way at all of knowing how many of those 400 successful appeals are for in-county or out-of-county children. At a guess it is no more than 120. It is worth remembering though that of the 1509 Bucks qualifiers there are quite a number of children who still go to other schools - private or out of county (the Berks grammars again), and that will increase the number of places that are available for OoC, probably by more than 120.

The bottom line is that there are near enough places for all who apply - but the location of the places is the issue, as we saw in South Bucks this year.

S-A

[Dad40]

Sally-Anne,

I had been responding specifically to your point that 600 OOCs take up "the remaining places" on the basis of the numbers of kids who had passed the exam. My point is that we simply cannot know that and therefore cannot make that statement because successful appeals aren't factored into the numbers yet.

Also, one can virtually discount my first response because I hadn't immediately realised your numbers didn't include successful appeals. Therefore I thought 1509 represented a continued reduction in the Bucks cohort "qualifying". I probably should have deleted that post altogether rather than add to it.

The upshot of all this is that we can't know what the real numbers are without factoring in the successul appeals. Until then, the best numbers to use are those of previous years where the numbers are final (my link in an earlier post). That shows far fewer OoCs took up a place (for whatever reason) than actually qualified. In recent years, it has always been under 50% of qualifying OoCs. I've no reason to doubt it'll be much different this year.

Just on this point, which really got me questioning everything I know about this stuff:

Dad40 wrote: LATE ADDITION: I've belatedly noticed your comment about it not including successful appeals. That always has a major impact on OOCs' prospects of winning a place.

"Why? These are selection appeals, not transfer appeals, and the child's location doesn't enter into it."

But if a child in say Amersham wins a selection appeal for DCHS, they will get a place over the child living in say Chorleywood/Rickmansworth. The child's location absolutely does enter into it.....

You seem to be generally writing as though selection appeals happen after places are allocated which is not correct.....

(I do feel I'm completely missing something here - wouldn't be the first time )

[Guest55]

I tend to agree with Dad40 here.

Every successful selection appeal from someone inside Bucks will probably 'displace' an OOC qualifier. Yes we don't know where the qualification appeals come from but, even if only 50% are from within Bucks, OOC qualifiers will be the losers.

This is why it's so good that these appeals are before allocation - more Bucks children get Bucks GS ...

[WP]

Places are allocated in the following order: In-area Siblings, In Area Children, Out Area Siblings then all others. Successful appeal candidates are considered in the same order [...].

Therefore places are allocated to the 1509 Bucks resident qualifiers first, and only then are those living outside Bucks considered.

But in the process as you've described it, won't Out-of-County children be treated the same as other Out Area children in the iterative allocation process? (That would also be as required by the Greenwich Judgement.) The Bucks coordinated admissions scheme also suggests (para 26) that unallocated Bucks children are assigned a place at the nearest appropriate school with places remaining after the iterative process is complete.

(This is ignoring the small areas that are Out-of-County but in catchment.)

[Sally-Anne]

That shows far fewer OoCs took up a place (for whatever reason) than actually qualified. In recent years, it has always been under 50% of qualifying OoCs. I've no reason to doubt it'll be much different this year.

And despite that, there are vacant places at many Bucks Grammars, which shows that they are going elsewhere by choice, not being frozen out by lack of places overall.

I suspect that a typical example would be a girl living in Rickmansworth who takes the 11+ in the hope of getting a place a DCHS. They qualify but don't get the place they had hoped for on distance. They are offered a place at CHS, but don't want to take it because the journey is inconvenient, so they go elsewhere - perhaps Clement Danes.

Another example would be the Berks children I mentioned earlier - a child takes both tests, but actually prefer the Berks school, and the Bucks school application is merely a fail-safe. I am sure that has been the situation with Burnham GS until it came back into fashion recently. BGS was seen as "not great, but a lot better than the alternatives".

But if a child in say Amersham wins a selection appeal for DCHS, they will get a place over the child living in say Chorleywood/Rickmansworth. The child's location absolutely does enter into it.....
You seem to be generally writing as though selection appeals happen after places are allocated which is not correct.....

Of course not, but I felt that the statement you made (I've belatedly noticed your comment about it not including successful appeals. That always has a major impact on OOCs' prospects of winning a place.), could lead people to think that selection appeals are somehow linked to location - for example, that somehow an OoC child coming though a selection appeal is treated less favourably than an OoC child who qualified outright.

But in the process as you've described it, won't Out-of-County children be treated the same as other Out Area children in the iterative allocation process? (That would also be as required by the Greenwich Judgement.) The Bucks coordinated admissions scheme also suggests (para 26) that unallocated Bucks children are assigned a place at the nearest appropriate school with places remaining after the iterative process is complete.

Yes, you are right to correct me - the first statement is correct, the second was not essentially correct, and I have edited my post accordingly. The important thing was to correct the original suggestion that OoC children were automatically given preference for places over all Bucks children!

However, as Dad40 mentioned, over 95% of Bucks GS children receive their 1st preference school on NAD in most years (2009 being an exception, unfortunately), so the likelihood of an OoC child having received a place ahead of a Bucks child is really very small. Many of the remaining 5% may have specified a very popular non-catchment school (such as DCGS) as 1st preference anyway, more in hope than expectation, and have simply been allocated their catchment school instead.

S-A

[pippi]

The system accommodates 100% of all Bucks resident children, with plenty of places left over.

Do you mean that the system accommodates in a Bucks Grammar School all Bucks resident children who reach the (arbitrary) qualifying level, with plenty of places "left over"? So if the pass mark was dropped to, say, 116, then there would be fewer places "left over" (but still some?), but more Bucks resident children would go to Bucks Grammar Schools? [btw I'm not suggesting this should happen].

[Dad40]

I suspect that a typical example would be a girl living in Rickmansworth who takes the 11+ in the hope of getting a place a DCHS. They qualify but don't get the place they had hoped for on distance. They are offered a place at CHS, but don't want to take it because the journey is inconvenient, so they go elsewhere - perhaps Clement Danes.

Just on that one point: If no other Bucks grammar school featured in the applicant's preferences (but other Herts comps did), would Bucks offer CHS to the qualifying candidate "because it had a place"? I always thought not but this could be the bit I'm missing.

Of course not, but I felt that the statement you made (I've belatedly noticed your comment about it not including successful appeals. That always has a major impact on OOCs' prospects of winning a place.), could lead people to think that selection appeals are somehow linked to location - for example, that somehow an OoC child coming though a selection appeal is treated less favourably than an OoC child who qualified outright.

Not at all. It's just that selection appeals will inevitably be made up of (probably dominated by) Bucks resident applicants. That means that an OoC could in theory get a place on the basis of the 'pass rate' numbers but can't get a place once the appeals are factored in (which is the only allocation that matters). In that sense, some OoCs are being effectively shut out by people who successfully appeal and therefore can have "a major impact on OoCs' prospects of winning a place". That's why we can't use the pre-appeal numbers.

Per Guest55, all we can say is that x number of OOCs qualified, and y number were able to take up a place. Based on previous years we know that less than 50% of OOC qualifiers took up a place.