Allocations 2010 - an early view

Eleven Plus (11+) in Buckinghamshire (Bucks)

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Marylou
Posts: 2164
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:21 am

Post by Marylou »

Shelly8 wrote:Thanks bucks mum, that's good news.

The fact that DD came through the Appeal process does not have any bearing on allocations, does it?
No - successful appellants are treated the same as all other qualified applicants.
Marylou
stats_person
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:00 pm

post qualification overall numbers

Post by stats_person »

Hello Sally-Anne,
these are very interesting preliminary numbers....

On the subject of overall pressure on numbers...do you have an indication on overall pass numbers and a comparison with last year's numbers at this stage...are we down overall on last year, so overall less pressure?...I realize the numbers will change based upon how the appeals go, but it would be interesting to know that, especially those of us relying on distance criteria.

Many Thanks for your excellent posts....
stats_person
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:00 pm

1st pref numbers

Post by stats_person »

Hello Sally-Anne,
thanks for the updated table with historic data...

I have Appendix 1c - Summary of Year 7 intake to Bucks Schools compared to pupil preferences as at 27 February 2009...found in a report published on the internet...I see your figures for last year are the same as the column "Total Bucks Pupils with a 1st preference"...however in your initial post you mentioned that the numbers included *all* pupils who put down a 1st preference...ie in county and out of county so can we confirm, do these numbers include Out of County? eg John Hampden 129 this year, 99 last year.

Thanks
Sally-Anne
Posts: 9235
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:10 pm
Location: Buckinghamshire

Post by Sally-Anne »

Hi stats_person

Welcome, and thank you for your kind comments.

There were slightly fewer first preferences for Grammars overall this year - 1757 compared to 1797 last year.

However, last year there were 850 appeals compared to over 1,000 this year. Assuming a success rate of 40% for those, as that has been fairly constant, the figures are then:

2009: 1797 + 340 = 2137
2010: 1757 + 400 = 2157

That leaves us with 20 additional children in the system. However that really is a "Rough Guide" because we have no way of knowing where any of them are geographically, or whether they actually had a first preference for a non-Bucks school. Nor do we know yet if there has been a change in the success rate for appeals this year, because they are still in progress.

As I said in the first post, Royal Latin and the Royal Grammar seem to be the pressure points this year, but only time will tell I'm afraid. (Only 19 days to go ...)

Have you see the past Allocation Profiles here?
http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/11-plu ... rofile.php

Sally-Anne
stats_person
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:00 pm

post qualification overall numbers

Post by stats_person »

Hi Sally-Anne,

yes, we are distance criteria, JHGS, out of county, 1st pref, and on the edge of that criteria, so we note the increase in 1st preference numbers, and probably overall pressure on JH with some concern, likely to cause a reduction in distance criteria for out of county folks...its not looking so good...

Thanks
Cats12
Posts: 341
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:51 pm

Post by Cats12 »

hi SallyAnne, do you have allocation figs for 2nd prefs of those who qualified - could do a rough guess then of where likely pressure is to be post first round allocations, with a little guesswork as well to account for approx 40% successful appeals on top (tho no way of knowing their 1st or 2nd prefs). I know guesswork is just that but helps to keep mind off march 1! :D
Sally-Anne
Posts: 9235
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:10 pm
Location: Buckinghamshire

Re: 1st pref numbers

Post by Sally-Anne »

stats_person wrote:I have Appendix 1c - Summary of Year 7 intake to Bucks Schools compared to pupil preferences as at 27 February 2009...found in a report published on the internet...I see your figures for last year are the same as the column "Total Bucks Pupils with a 1st preference"...however in your initial post you mentioned that the numbers included *all* pupils who put down a 1st preference...ie in county and out of county so can we confirm, do these numbers include Out of County? eg John Hampden 129 this year, 99 last year.
Hmm ... I'm looking that the same piece of paper (I think) and can't see any figures the same! I will take a closer look when I have more time.

However, you are not comparing like with like. The figures I have posted on this thread include only those who qualified as at 20th November. The other set of figures that you are looking at are dated 27th February and include successful apellants and possibly some late testers.

Cats12 - which school (s) are you interested in?

Saly-Anne
Cats12
Posts: 341
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:51 pm

Post by Cats12 »

AGS in particular - i'm guessing some aiming for Royal Latin may have AGS as 2nd, not sure whether others may put grammars to south of bucks as 1st for reasons of proximity/other and AGS 2nd.....
Sally-Anne
Posts: 9235
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:10 pm
Location: Buckinghamshire

Post by Sally-Anne »

Hi Cats12

There are 56 2nd prefs for AGS, compared to 67 last year.

You are probably right about some people in South Bucks - last year people in the NW reaches of DCGS catchment (Ballinger/Lee Common area) didn't get places at either DCGS or RGS, and AG could well be their 2nd/3rd choice school.

Sally-Anne
Cats12
Posts: 341
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:51 pm

Post by Cats12 »

many thanks Sally-Anne, tis easy to see how the school places will quickly fill up/be oversubscribed...
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