Allocations 2010 - an early view
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post qualification overall numbers
Hello Sally-Anne,
these are very interesting preliminary numbers....
On the subject of overall pressure on numbers...do you have an indication on overall pass numbers and a comparison with last year's numbers at this stage...are we down overall on last year, so overall less pressure?...I realize the numbers will change based upon how the appeals go, but it would be interesting to know that, especially those of us relying on distance criteria.
Many Thanks for your excellent posts....
these are very interesting preliminary numbers....
On the subject of overall pressure on numbers...do you have an indication on overall pass numbers and a comparison with last year's numbers at this stage...are we down overall on last year, so overall less pressure?...I realize the numbers will change based upon how the appeals go, but it would be interesting to know that, especially those of us relying on distance criteria.
Many Thanks for your excellent posts....
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1st pref numbers
Hello Sally-Anne,
thanks for the updated table with historic data...
I have Appendix 1c - Summary of Year 7 intake to Bucks Schools compared to pupil preferences as at 27 February 2009...found in a report published on the internet...I see your figures for last year are the same as the column "Total Bucks Pupils with a 1st preference"...however in your initial post you mentioned that the numbers included *all* pupils who put down a 1st preference...ie in county and out of county so can we confirm, do these numbers include Out of County? eg John Hampden 129 this year, 99 last year.
Thanks
thanks for the updated table with historic data...
I have Appendix 1c - Summary of Year 7 intake to Bucks Schools compared to pupil preferences as at 27 February 2009...found in a report published on the internet...I see your figures for last year are the same as the column "Total Bucks Pupils with a 1st preference"...however in your initial post you mentioned that the numbers included *all* pupils who put down a 1st preference...ie in county and out of county so can we confirm, do these numbers include Out of County? eg John Hampden 129 this year, 99 last year.
Thanks
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Hi stats_person
Welcome, and thank you for your kind comments.
There were slightly fewer first preferences for Grammars overall this year - 1757 compared to 1797 last year.
However, last year there were 850 appeals compared to over 1,000 this year. Assuming a success rate of 40% for those, as that has been fairly constant, the figures are then:
2009: 1797 + 340 = 2137
2010: 1757 + 400 = 2157
That leaves us with 20 additional children in the system. However that really is a "Rough Guide" because we have no way of knowing where any of them are geographically, or whether they actually had a first preference for a non-Bucks school. Nor do we know yet if there has been a change in the success rate for appeals this year, because they are still in progress.
As I said in the first post, Royal Latin and the Royal Grammar seem to be the pressure points this year, but only time will tell I'm afraid. (Only 19 days to go ...)
Have you see the past Allocation Profiles here?
http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/11-plu ... rofile.php
Sally-Anne
Welcome, and thank you for your kind comments.
There were slightly fewer first preferences for Grammars overall this year - 1757 compared to 1797 last year.
However, last year there were 850 appeals compared to over 1,000 this year. Assuming a success rate of 40% for those, as that has been fairly constant, the figures are then:
2009: 1797 + 340 = 2137
2010: 1757 + 400 = 2157
That leaves us with 20 additional children in the system. However that really is a "Rough Guide" because we have no way of knowing where any of them are geographically, or whether they actually had a first preference for a non-Bucks school. Nor do we know yet if there has been a change in the success rate for appeals this year, because they are still in progress.
As I said in the first post, Royal Latin and the Royal Grammar seem to be the pressure points this year, but only time will tell I'm afraid. (Only 19 days to go ...)
Have you see the past Allocation Profiles here?
http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/11-plu ... rofile.php
Sally-Anne
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:00 pm
post qualification overall numbers
Hi Sally-Anne,
yes, we are distance criteria, JHGS, out of county, 1st pref, and on the edge of that criteria, so we note the increase in 1st preference numbers, and probably overall pressure on JH with some concern, likely to cause a reduction in distance criteria for out of county folks...its not looking so good...
Thanks
yes, we are distance criteria, JHGS, out of county, 1st pref, and on the edge of that criteria, so we note the increase in 1st preference numbers, and probably overall pressure on JH with some concern, likely to cause a reduction in distance criteria for out of county folks...its not looking so good...
Thanks
hi SallyAnne, do you have allocation figs for 2nd prefs of those who qualified - could do a rough guess then of where likely pressure is to be post first round allocations, with a little guesswork as well to account for approx 40% successful appeals on top (tho no way of knowing their 1st or 2nd prefs). I know guesswork is just that but helps to keep mind off march 1!
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Re: 1st pref numbers
Hmm ... I'm looking that the same piece of paper (I think) and can't see any figures the same! I will take a closer look when I have more time.stats_person wrote:I have Appendix 1c - Summary of Year 7 intake to Bucks Schools compared to pupil preferences as at 27 February 2009...found in a report published on the internet...I see your figures for last year are the same as the column "Total Bucks Pupils with a 1st preference"...however in your initial post you mentioned that the numbers included *all* pupils who put down a 1st preference...ie in county and out of county so can we confirm, do these numbers include Out of County? eg John Hampden 129 this year, 99 last year.
However, you are not comparing like with like. The figures I have posted on this thread include only those who qualified as at 20th November. The other set of figures that you are looking at are dated 27th February and include successful apellants and possibly some late testers.
Cats12 - which school (s) are you interested in?
Saly-Anne
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Hi Cats12
There are 56 2nd prefs for AGS, compared to 67 last year.
You are probably right about some people in South Bucks - last year people in the NW reaches of DCGS catchment (Ballinger/Lee Common area) didn't get places at either DCGS or RGS, and AG could well be their 2nd/3rd choice school.
Sally-Anne
There are 56 2nd prefs for AGS, compared to 67 last year.
You are probably right about some people in South Bucks - last year people in the NW reaches of DCGS catchment (Ballinger/Lee Common area) didn't get places at either DCGS or RGS, and AG could well be their 2nd/3rd choice school.
Sally-Anne