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PostPosted: Sun Feb 13, 2011 9:57 pm 
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The figures below are the first preferences for the Bucks Grammars, post-qualification.

They are the numbers for all those (regardless of catchment) who placed the school in first place on the CAF. They do not include successful appeals or late testers, and nor do they include children who placed another school higher on their CAF but subsequently did not qualify for that school, e.g. an OoC grammar.

They give an early indication as to which schools are likely to be more or less popular (i.e. oversubscribed) than last year. By cross-referencing these numbers against the allocation profiles for previous years http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/school ... n-profiles you may be able to get some idea of how likely it is that your child will get their first preference GS on March 1st.

Clearly much depends on where other children live, so they are only a "Rough Guide" and no more than that.

Code:
                          PAN   2011   2010   2009   2008
Aylesbury Grammar         180   150    153    154    167
Aylesbury High            180   138    157    145    163
Beaconsfield High         150   123    145     99    158
Burnham Grammar           150    86     64     53     54
Chesham Grammar           180   104    110     92    101
Dr Challoners Grammar     180   159    177    214    196
Dr Challoners High        150   160    151    185    147
John Hampden              150   117    129     99     80
*Royal Grammar School     182   139    194    222    182
Royal Latin               174   174    194    184    199
Sir Henry Floyd           150   111     65     80     63
Sir William Borlase       120   134     76    110    128
Wycombe High              180   156    136    156    131
               
* Does not include boarding places               


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:37 am 
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Do the figures include OOC applicants who put a Bucks grammar first?


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:11 am 
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burnzeazi wrote:
Do the figures include OOC applicants who put a Bucks grammar first?

Sally-Anne wrote:
They are the numbers for all those (regardless of catchment) who placed the school in first place on the CAF.
Yes, they do, but beware this point:

Sally-Anne wrote:
nor do they include children who placed another school higher on their CAF but subsequently did not qualify for that school, e.g. an OoC grammar.
The figures are only for those who actually listed a Bucks GS in first place. If a child listed a Berks school in 1st place and was unsuccessful, but took the Bucks test successfully, the Bucks GS will become their new "first" preference.

For many reasons such as that the figures are really only useful to see the "trend" year on year compared with the allocation profiles, and little more.

S-A


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:22 am 
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Wow, the number for SHF has shot up as 1st preference this year.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:43 am 
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Thanks for posting this Sally-Anne! I can think of at least one person who would be very interested to see this table, but don't want to build their hopes up. Am I right in thinking that the RLS figure of 174 should be treated with extreme caution, as successful selection appeals is likely to push the number over PAN? I wonder if it is possible to extrapolate a rough post-selection appeals figure at this stage?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:17 am 
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Marylou wrote:
Thanks for posting this Sally-Anne! I can think of at least one person who would be very interested to see this table, but don't want to build their hopes up.
The reason for posting the numbers is to help people "manage expectations" ahead of March 1st. They are probably more valuable to those who may need to manage expectations downward, rather than to get anyone's hopes up because there are too many "unknowns".

Quote:
Am I right in thinking that the RLS figure of 174 should be treated with extreme caution, as successful selection appeals is likely to push the number over PAN?
Most definitely, and all the numbers should be treated with extreme caution! They just give an idea of the trend. For example, as first preferences for RGS are down quite substantially on previous years, the allocation distance could well (based on past performance, which is no guarantee, etc, etc) to go beyond catchment this year.

However there is another health warning behind the numbers in the case of RGS, which is that the catchment areas for boys schools in South Bucks have changed since the last time (2008) when RGS went beyond catchment, so that could influence the final allocation. However, as a trend it would be fair to say:

:: In 2008, RGS received 182 first preferences, which resulted in a final allocation profile of 18.537 miles, extending beyond catchment.

:: In 2011, with only 139 first preferences, the final allocation profile could be similar to 2008, and might even extend further.

Quote:
I wonder if it is possible to extrapolate a rough post-selection appeals figure at this stage?
No, because we have no way of knowing which schools the successful appellants put on their CAF as first preference. All one can do is take the likely total of successful appeals (around 350, from my Sticky) and divide by 13 for the number of GS. That increases every number by around 27 applicants, so RLS would become 201 against a PAN of 174.

S-A


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:13 am 
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Location: Chiltern District, Bucks
S-A,

Great piece of data - thanks. :D

Seems there is unlikely to be much controversy in the Chiltern/Wycombe/South Bucks area this year.....


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:45 pm 
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Midget Man wrote:
Wow, the number for SHF has shot up as 1st preference this year.



Does this means 'All Offered' for SHF will change???


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:52 pm 
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monsoon wrote:
Does this means 'All Offered' for SHF will change???

That is very hard to predict indeed - I wouldn't put money on it remaining All Offered, but I think the distance will be pretty high.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:13 pm 
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Certainly SHF figures this year show how helpful the art of statistics is in terms of predictions. Well 1 March is not far;)


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