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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 9:45 pm 
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Location: Buckinghamshire
My annual post to give you a VERY ROUGH idea of what to expect on 1st March.

My goodness, this is one bright cohort! Overall there were around 400 more first preferences for Bucks grammars this year (6730 vs. 6338 last year), but there were 200 more qualified children than in either of the past two years. We knew the pass mark was higher this year, but these figures show the implications of that.

These are the first preferences after qualification, and they do not include cases that have been successful after a selection review.

If you view them in tandem with the past allocation distances http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/school ... n-profiles they may give those living in the borderline zone an indication of how likely it is that a place will be allocated on 1st March compared to previous years.

N.B. Please note very carefully the changes to the method of distance measurement, from "travelling distance" to "straight line measurement". "Everyone got a whole lot closer", but some will have got closer than others.

Code:
      PAN     2013    2012    2011
AGS   180     183     160     150 
AHS   180     152     142     138
BHS   150     150     107     123
BGS   150      97      74      86
CGS   180      97      94     104
DCG   180     215     223     159
DCH   150     158     158     160
JHG   150     130      94     117
RGS   182     154     170     139
RLS   174     215     192     174
SHF   150      80      91     111
SWB   120     124     109     134
WHS   180     147     157     156

ALL   2126    1902    1771    1751


Also, RGS was under-subscribed for boarding places yet again, and I am assuming that they may allocate those places to day pupils instead.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 10:52 pm 
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Thanks Sally Anne. When you mention the number of first preferences, is this the number of children putting the named school down as the first choice on the common application form? Also, I'm assuming that these numbers would include OOC children too?

Finally, where did you get the information from? BCC?

Thanks


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:46 am 
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Thanks Sally Ann for the info.

Does this mean only 1902 children have chosen Bucks GS's as their first choice out of 6,730 who passed!!! Does this include OOC? That's less than 30%! So more than 70% have chosen non Bucks GS as their first choice.

The data also shows that for 2k places available, 6.7k are eligible, excl. appeals etc. but yet we have less than 2k putting GS as first choice.

Also, does 97 children putting as first choice in CGS mean only 97 will get offer letters on 01 March, if all were to get their 1st choice. I know it doesn't happen that way and many others will get letters when they miss their first choice. Presume 180 offer letters will be sent out by CGS (incl. 2nd, 3rd pref.... and OOC) and same with all the schools.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 7:14 am 
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Daddy123 - I think the apparent difference is because the school preferences had to be submitted before the results came out for Bucks this year.

So 6730 put one of the Bucks grammars as first preference (having taken the test but not yet knowing the results) - but of those only 1902 actually achieved the qualifying score. Sally-Anne's figures are after qualification - i.e. not including those who didn't achieve the required score. I'm sure she'll be along to confirm before long.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 7:34 am 
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Thanks a lot Okanagan....that makes sense now.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 9:27 am 
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Location: Warwickshire
Daddy123 wrote:
does 97 children putting as first choice in CGS mean only 97 will get offer letters on 01 March, if all were to get their 1st choice. I know it doesn't happen that way and many others will get letters when they miss their first choice. Presume 180 offer letters will be sent out by CGS (incl. 2nd, 3rd pref.... and OOC) and same with all the schools.
Allocations are a bit more complicated than that!

Put simply, what happens* is:

Initially each qualifying applicant will be put on the list for their first choice school. The admissions policies would be applied to place the candidates in order (for example travelling distance would be a consideration - nearer having a higher priority).

Where there are more applicants for a school than places available, those at the bottom of the list - beyond the number of places available - would then be reallocated to their second choice school. They would then be added to the list for that school in the appropriate place on the list - as if they had placed it first (as it is no longer permitted to give preference to those who had placed a school higher in their list of preferences). If the 2nd choice was already oversubscribed (or very close to it) this could mean that other applicants at the bottom of their list would get bumped down to below the number of places available and the process would then be repeated to reallocate those, and so on until all children have places (or all their preferences have been exhausted).

If at the end of this process there aren't as many qualifying candidates for places at a particular school as there are places, then some places will be left unallocated on offers day. Although these may later be offered as a result of appeal.

*In practice it may not quite happen like that, although the outcome will be the same. I don't know Bucks - but here what happens is that a ranked list of all candidates, regardless of preference position, is created for each school, and then as first choices are allocated those names will be removed from the lists of lower preference schools. It is also complicated further by out of county applications, and the necessary liaison with neighbouring local authorities when applicants have schools across more than one county.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:25 am 
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Okanagan is correct on all counts, as ever, and I shall wander off to enjoy a cup of coffee. :D


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:17 am 
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Thanks for this info SA. Just wondering what would happen to those successful in the review and lateron the appeals but the preferred school is already above its allocation capacity, eg AGS? Can the school accommodate more than the 180?

----------
Okanagan has answered the last part of my query, just curious what would happen to those who are on the review and appeals.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:23 am 
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Hi Sally Anne - also, any thoughts on my question above?

Any ideas from the forum on what is driving the huge increase in first preferences for Beaconsfield High this year (up almost 40 per cent). :?

thanks


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:40 am 
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StacatoMum wrote:
Thanks for this info SA. Just wondering what would happen to those successful in the review and lateron the appeals but the preferred school is already above its allocation capacity, eg AGS? Can the school accommodate more than the 180?

Candidates who are successful after a selection review are added back into the pot before Allocations Day and are therefore treated in exactly the same way as candidates who qualified outright.

Candidates who appeal against non-qualification after 1st March and are successful, but whose first preference is an over-subscribed school, will then have to go through an over-subscription appeal. It is then up to a further Independent Appeal Panel to decide whether the prejudice to the child of not gaining a place outweighs the prejudice to the school of admitting over PAN.

That does happen - last year a couple of schools went over PAN by four or 5 pupils.

jpk wrote:
any thoughts on my question above?

The figures include OoC preferences, and the information is indeed from BCC.

jpk wrote:
Any ideas from the forum on what is driving the huge increase in first preferences for Beaconsfield High this year (up almost 40 per cent).

I don't know of anything specific. These fluctuations, even quite large ones, often seem to result from underlying changes in the birth rate - more girls than boys, more 10 year old children in the area overall, etc. I recall one year when a forum member mentioned that a new housing development, built some years earlier, could have caused a sudden blip in the numbers for one school.

There is also the "flock of sheep factor" - one or two children at a primary school with a large cohort decide that a particular GS is for them, and the rest follow!


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