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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:19 pm 
See Bucks Free Press item:
http://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/search/display.var.1584280.0.11plus_is_failing_most_children.php
It's by an anti-grammar campaigner and whilst he's entitled to his view, the numbers in the second paragraph don't seem to stack up. Can anyone corroborate or deny?


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:11 pm 
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Hi Hugh

As you rightly say, this chap is very anti-GS. This is what he wrote, and what Hugh is querying.

Quote:
Of the 2,155 pupils who qualified for a grammar place by scoring 121 or above in the 11-plus tests sat in 2006, 47 per cent came from prep schools in Bucks or prep schools and state schools outside the county.

The qualification rate for Bucks primary children was 24 per cent while the pass rate for prep schools in Bucks was 60 per cent.


I know that the actual figures are on the Bucks CC website somewhere, and I was sure that someone (probably Guest55) had posted a link to them, but I can't find it for looking right now!

I think the figures may be right for state school passes in Bucks. However, on prep schools the figure look slightly dodgier. It all depends on whether the figures for Prep/Out-of-County schools are based on % of those who sat the test, or on the % of the entire cohort at those schools. I am very suspicious that it is the former, which artificially inflates the pass mark. As a "sample comparison", at my son's prep school, in 2004:

Cohort: 60
Sat 11+: 39 (65%)
Passed: 26
Pass rate: 43% or 67%

The tendency at Prep schools and out-of-county schools would be for a child to only take the test if there was a reasonable hope of them passing, which creates a very different base number.

To compare that with state schools in Bucks, one would need the figure for the total size of the cohort and the number who actually sat the test. I recall reading on the Forum that relatively few Bucks children opt out of the test at state schools.

At the local state school in 2006 the figures were (roughly):

Cohort: 60
Sat the 11+: 58 (97%)
Passed: 19
Pass rate: 32%

The document we need to see, if anyone can find it is:

"Analysis of pupils taking the 11+ test in order to transfer to Bucks maintained secondary schools in September 06"

The 2007 document may be out by now. I know that Drummer had a copy of the 2006 document after making an FOI request.

Sally-Anne


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:21 pm 
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Drummers post was on numbers from state schools - huge variation in percentages between schools ....

viewtopic.php?t=2352


You are right Sally-Anne that he is not comparing like with like - 'lies, damn lies and statistics!' - you can prove anything!!


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:53 pm 
I can believe that prep schools have pass rates averaging 60% - for all the reasons you give Sally-Anne,

But the preceding sentence claims that almost half of the overall passes are from preps schools. There surely aren't enough prep school pupils for that to be true?


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:18 pm 
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Perhaps he has conveniently 'forgotten' that some partner schools are maintained [ie state] primaries in Bucks catchments.

The 2005 data I found oin here somewhere and saved said about 25% of the pupils from Bucks Primaries achieved 11+ qualifying [with a few withdrawn]. About 40% of 'others' e.g. partner and abroad and out-county and therefore 'selected' in the first place by having to register reached qualifying.

My experience was that there would be one or two in each class of 30 - certainly not half!


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 8:38 am 
Sally Anne

I think the link you want is this:

http://www.buckscc.gov.uk/cabinet_paper ... _item4.pdf


It appears under "Bucks" part of the forum under "percentage offered their highest preference school" date 4 June 2007


Here is your comment from before
Quote:
Partner schools are private/prep schools, which explains the higher pass rate! (I know, I know, but let's please not go there again everyone ... Rolling Eyes )

They are described as that when they administer the 11+ in school on behalf of the Bucks LEA in the same way as a state school would. "Partner Out" schools are out-of-county schools that have the same arrangement becuase they have a large number of pupils taking the Bucks test.

A "non-partner school" would be either a very small prep or an out-of-county school. Those children would take their 11+ at a central testing location instead.

Hilda

Hilda - I have added the quote brackets to make it clear that the post was mine, in case anyone disagrees with it!


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 11:01 am 
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Oh Hilda, you clever girl! :D I found that link, but didn't scroll down far enough to the attachments.

Yes, it shows exactly what I expected. These figures were done in a hurry, so someone may pull me up on them!

Bucks State Schools
Total Bucks resident cohort **: 6016
Opted out: 1015 (17%)
Tested: 5001
Passed: 1239 (21% or 25%)

** It is not possible to tell if the "Bucks resident cohort" actually includes in-County Partner schools or not. Also, the figure is based on the child's school, not the home addess.

The opt out rate at 16% is far lower than the example I quoted for my son's school, where it was almost double, at 35%. If the figures include the total cohort for private schools in Bucks, then the "opt-in" percentage for state schools would be even higher.

In County Partner schools
Tested: 399
Passed: 239 (60%)

Out of County Schools
Tested: 2063
Passed: 778 (38%)

Neither of those latter stats will reflect anything like the percentage of the actual cohort in the way that the Bucks figures do, as only those children with a chance of passing will take the test, and many prep school children will not take it because their parent have chosen to keep them privately educated beyond age 11. At two Prep schools I know of, less than 20% of the children sit the 11+.

As Guest55 says, Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics!

Sally-Anne


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:47 pm 
Very interesting stats, thanks.

But everyone is focusing on the proportion of prep applicants who pass versus teh proportion of state applicants. No one is surprised that it's higher for the prep schools, for all the reasons given in this topic and elsewhere.

But my main query/objection is the paragraph where it says "Of the 2,155 pupils who qualified for a grammar place by scoring 121 or above... 47 per cent came from prep schools", i.e. it claims that almost half of all the pupils who passed were from prep schools. Even if the prep pupils who entered had 100% pass rate, surely there wouldn't be enough of them for them to make up almost half of those actually passing?


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:27 pm 
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I think, as I said above, that the 'person' inferred that all partner school pupils are from prep schools which they certainly are not.

The author of the article is anti-selection so is going to analyse the data to 'prove' his hypothesis -

The only way to know for sure would be to know the school of each entrant to a Bucks Grammar ....


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 3:37 pm 
Hugh

The anti grammar campaigners quote was actually

"47 per cent came from prep schools in Bucks or prep schools AND STATE SCHOOLS outside the county."

not

"47 per cent came from prep schools"

Looking at the table: of the 2155 qualifying, 337 are from Aylesbury state schools, 447 are from Chiltern and South Bucks state schools, 354 are from Wycomebe state schools . This is a total of 1138 definitely from state primaries in Bucks, which is 53% of those qualifying. The other 47% of the cohort qualifying come from a mix of (i) 239 (11% of the total qualifying cohort) from partner schools in the above 3 areas (which according to Sally Anne means private schools in those areas, although Guest 55 says not all partner schools are private schools), (ii) 191 (9% of the total qualifying cohort) from partner schools out of area (again not clear if these are private schools or not, and (iii) 587(27% of the total qualifying cohort) from out of area (indep/maintained) - definitely a mixture of state and private - but presumably all living out of area.

From the table and the figures above, I conclude that 47% of the qualifying cohort are either (a) at a partner school and/or (b) fall in the "out of area" category. Therfore if all partner schools are private and/or out of county the anti gramar campaigner's comment looks literally correct. But if all partner schools are not private and/or out of county, then his statement is not correct. In any event it is confusing, since many people, like Hugh read it and assume it means that 47% of those qualifying come from private schools.

As Guest 55 so rightly points out statistics can be interpreted in lots of ways. So Hugh - I should just look at the tables and make of them what you will!!

Good Luck

Hilda


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