Pass Rates by Bucks LA Schools

[jabba7]

If my understanding is correct

For 2015 entry 2783 children qualified.

This can then be split into 1344 qualified within Bucks (48%) and 1439 children qualified from out of Bucks (52%). I find this shocking that 52% of children that have qualified are from OOC, does this mean there is something wrong with the primary education in Bucks

I know there are lots of places on the edge of Bucks where the children may go to a Bucks GS but even so this percentage split feels wrong and out of balance.

[Sally-Anne]

Do you know how many of these were OOC? Presumably most were but I also know that in some areas a few Bucks children might qualify but prefer a school in a neighbouring county.

I think the answer is 376, or 87% or them.

There were 1538 Bucks resident qualifiers, either by scoring 121 or through a successful Review/Appeal. 1481 Bucks resident pupils expressed a first preference for a Bucks GS.

1538 less 1481 = 57, 433 less 57 = 376.

[drummer]

Thanks

[Sally-Anne]

If my understanding is correct

For 2015 entry 2783 children qualified.

This can then be split into 1344 qualified within Bucks (48%) and 1439 children qualified from out of Bucks (52%). I find this shocking that 52% of children that have qualified are from OOC, does this mean there is something wrong with the primary education in Bucks

No, it means that the huge volume of heavily tutored OoC children aiming for selective schools anywhere (tourists) elbowed out the potential Bucks qualifiers.

In 2013 there were 1875 OoC candidates, a figure which had been generally increasing a little each year.

In 2014, there were 3183 OoC candidates, an increase of 69%.

The figure stabilised in 2015, at 3198.

The greatest increase has been in candidates from Greater London - up from 532 (2013) to 899 (2014) and 893 (2015), but there is also an obvious increase in candidates who don't even live anywhere near Bucks.

[Hyacinth]

Blimey, it's like waiting for a bus isn't it?! Nothing for over a year and then info overload

Aside from the OoC disgrace, I personally find it interesting that all Bucks districts increased their pass % between the first CEM test and the second, except Wycombe...

[southbucks3]

11.9% of the total cohort from Aylesbury vale passed prior to review.
Obviously many children were not entered, several passed through after review, bumping the stats to around 17% of children who entered. However it is the first number that is the raw, warts and all statistic that should be sorted out, why are the Aylesbury children not passing or considered able to pass the 11+?
These children live in an area where they have the choice of superb grammar schools or many under performing upper schools, it's just not on, if they need to lower the score for Aylesbury vale then do it, if they cannot then work on the primary education and parent information.

Black and white, the new cem test initially suggested just 11.9% of normal state educated primary children from approximately 2000 year six children in the Aylesbury area were suitable candidates for the 650-700 grammar school places available in the vale.

[drummer]

11.9% of the total cohort from Aylesbury vale passed prior to review.

Ouch

[jabba7]

I agree with you SB3, it all feels a bit wrong as if even if your DC qualified like ours they should be going to school with other local children

[Sally-Anne]

11.9% of the total cohort from Aylesbury vale passed prior to review.

Not sure where you get 11.9% from? I make it 13.5%. (1693 tested, 229 qualified outright.)

You can't calculate the percentage as part of the total (tested & untested) cohort either, because we have no way of knowing the reasons for withdrawing a pupil from the test.

As an example, quite a number of children were withdrawn from testing at Halton Junior School. That could very easily be because their parents were off to a new posting, and have nothing to do with schooling.

[Sally-Anne]

Well, this is something that I really didn't expect to find. It appears that the test has had a levelling effect.

I've taken the data for each of the three areas, and analysed it as follows.

I ranked the schools by their 2013 results, and compared the top 50% with the bottom 50%. (Fractionally less in Aylesbury Vale because we don't have data for all of the top 50%.)

Aylesbury Vale (48 schools)
2013
Top 22 schools: 209 qualifiers (78%)
Bottom 26 schools: 58 qualifiers (22%)

2014
Top 22 schools: 149 qualifiers (65%)
Bottom 26 schools: 80 qualifiers (35%)

Chiltern/South Bucks (38 schools)
2013
Top 19 schools: 351 qualifiers (79%)
Bottom 19 schools: 93 qualifiers (21%)

2014
Top 19 schools: 149 qualifiers (73%) Edit: Typo. Should read 288 (Still 73% though)
Bottom 19 schools: 80 qualifiers (27%) Edit: Typo. Should read 107 (Still 27% though)

Wycombe (44 schools)
2013
Top 22 schools: 283 qualifiers (92%)
Bottom 22 schools: 23 qualifiers (8%)

2014
Top 22 schools: 212 qualifiers (61%)
Bottom 22 schools: 133 qualifiers (39%)

The effect in Wycombe is extraordinary.

It doesn't surprise me that CSB is less impacted than the rest, because the gap between the best schools and the worst ones is probably much wider than elsewhere. (Although there will have been some shocked faces at a few schools that are notorious for 100% external tutoring, who saw their qualification rates slashed.)