Hi Old Armachian
any preference figures you are looking at will change radically over the next few months, and almost all of them will go down rather than up, even with successful appeals.
I was generally referring to dejavu's school preferences, and the caveat "almost all of them
will go down rather than up" applies in your case.
The 2 pinch points in Bucks remain DCGS for boys and Beaconsfield High for girls, and schools adjacent to those with a high number of first preferences could still be tricky.
For RGS there are 182 places (ignoring the 10 boarding places) and 182 first preferences. That includes all out-of-catchment applications.
Thus, every child who put RGS first this year should get a place, at face value. However, there are three main factors that can change those figures between now and March 1st:
:: The main risk factor for you is DCGS, which is, as always, oversubscribed, although only by 16 this year. The over-subscription is always from the very southern end of Bucks - Gerrards Cross, Denham area, which is in catchment for DCGS and RGS. However, it is also in catchment for Burnham, and some people may have put that as 2nd preference because it is closer, or even have chosen CHS.
:: There are always a surprising number of children who, despite having taken the 11+ and passed, will still elect to go elsewhere, mainly to public schools or OoC state schools. That is a particularly strong factor for schools on the Berks border, where it can run to very large numbers, and to a lesser extent Herts. (It is much less of a factor on the Oxon border though.) Some of the DCGS oversubscription may disappear through that, with some boys qualifying for the nearby boys public schools - Habs and Merchant Taylors - in Herts.
:: Successful Appeals can increase the numbers. There were 330 successful appeals last year, so across the 13 Grammars that is an average
of 25 per school. There is no way of telling where those appeal children will actually end up, although after 3 years on the Forum I have a hunch that they tend to be aiming for the slightly less academic schools on the whole.
So, in your situation, it will really come down to which schools the DCGS overspill cited as 2nd preference, how many successful Appeals there are for RGS first preferences and how far out of catchment you are versus everyone else.
I'm afraid it is going to be tight, and I wish you luck. Assuming that your second preference is JHG, you should have no difficulty at all gaining a place there. If you wish to give me more information about roughly where you live and your other preferences I can be of more help on that.