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OK have been trying to think this through and may have put 2 and 2 together and come up with 5 but….whilst the number of year 6 children in Bucks won’t suddenly increase I would have thought that there may well be more parents looking for a GS place.
I know of several people who had always intended to go down the non selective independent route and therefore hadn’t intended to tutor for the 11+ but in the last couple of months have changed their minds and are who are now putting in intensive tutoring with a hope of not having to pay for private school fees.
For those at state primary schools in this position, whilst they would not have opted out of the test, the difference will be that they are also now hoping to qualify.
There may also presumably be others at independent schools that were intending to continue in the private sector and therefore would not have so much opted out but not even been part of the figures but who will now apply to take the test and this could increase the cohort.
I would have thought that the impact therefore may be a slightly larger cohort but may be more significantly that the qualifying raw score may increase since the score will be set to allow a certain number of children to qualify.
The other thought is that more people out of county who don’t have GS options in their own area may also apply. Presumably we won’t know yet how many out of county have applied and if the overall cohort is even slightly bigger they may have even less chance of a place.
A secondary impact of either more children taking the test / high raw score to qualify is that offers may go to a shorter distance and therefore less chance of getting an out of catchment school plus less movement on any waiting lists.
Following on from this may be fewer places remaining for 12+ applicants.
OK that’s my doom and gloom scenarios……
I do wonder thought whether the difference may be more noticeable next year. As people begin to feel the impact of the CC those with children now in year 5 may start looking at other options sooner.
I know of several people who had always intended to go down the non selective independent route and therefore hadn’t intended to tutor for the 11+ but in the last couple of months have changed their minds and are who are now putting in intensive tutoring with a hope of not having to pay for private school fees.
For those at state primary schools in this position, whilst they would not have opted out of the test, the difference will be that they are also now hoping to qualify.
There may also presumably be others at independent schools that were intending to continue in the private sector and therefore would not have so much opted out but not even been part of the figures but who will now apply to take the test and this could increase the cohort.
I would have thought that the impact therefore may be a slightly larger cohort but may be more significantly that the qualifying raw score may increase since the score will be set to allow a certain number of children to qualify.
The other thought is that more people out of county who don’t have GS options in their own area may also apply. Presumably we won’t know yet how many out of county have applied and if the overall cohort is even slightly bigger they may have even less chance of a place.
A secondary impact of either more children taking the test / high raw score to qualify is that offers may go to a shorter distance and therefore less chance of getting an out of catchment school plus less movement on any waiting lists.
Following on from this may be fewer places remaining for 12+ applicants.
OK that’s my doom and gloom scenarios……
I do wonder thought whether the difference may be more noticeable next year. As people begin to feel the impact of the CC those with children now in year 5 may start looking at other options sooner.
But where are you reading the numbers from ?Sally-Anne wrote:Whoops! Sorry - trying to do 3 things at once here. That was total applications for testing, and includes OoC children.
The correct numbers for 2008 were 5210 Bucks resident children who took the 11+, and 1154 who opted out. Total Bucks resident cohort was therefore 6364.
S-A
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Sally-Anne
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Minutes of the School Admissions Forum, May 2008, Agenda Reports Pack PDF, last 4 pages:
http://www.buckscc.gov.uk/moderngov/ieL ... 2903&Ver=4
Sherlock
http://www.buckscc.gov.uk/moderngov/ieL ... 2903&Ver=4
Sherlock
From Sherlock to Mr Picky...... 
Ah but 8371 figure does not represent the total cohort. Nor does 5210+1154=the number of eligible kids who live in Bucks. It only represents the number of kids that Bucks CC knows about. They don't know anything about (and therefore can't include in their numbers) kids in Bucks prep schools who don't register an interest in taking the 11+.
To coin Donald Rumsfeld: the Bucks state primary kids are known knowns; Bucks private school kids who register an interest in taking the test are known unknowns but everyone else in a Bucks private school who never register an interest in the 11+ are unknown unknowns and don't get counted in any stats.
In that sense, Greta is right about the credit crunch. There could be a number of Bucks applicants who now start appearing in the numbers "as if magic" because their Plan A has just become too expensive.
There could also be a big increase in the OOC applicants (another group of unknown unknowns).
And if this credit crunch effect were to happen at all, I'd expect it to happen in the current year, not last year.
Cheers
Ah but 8371 figure does not represent the total cohort. Nor does 5210+1154=the number of eligible kids who live in Bucks. It only represents the number of kids that Bucks CC knows about. They don't know anything about (and therefore can't include in their numbers) kids in Bucks prep schools who don't register an interest in taking the 11+.
To coin Donald Rumsfeld: the Bucks state primary kids are known knowns; Bucks private school kids who register an interest in taking the test are known unknowns but everyone else in a Bucks private school who never register an interest in the 11+ are unknown unknowns and don't get counted in any stats.
In that sense, Greta is right about the credit crunch. There could be a number of Bucks applicants who now start appearing in the numbers "as if magic" because their Plan A has just become too expensive.
There could also be a big increase in the OOC applicants (another group of unknown unknowns).
And if this credit crunch effect were to happen at all, I'd expect it to happen in the current year, not last year.
Cheers
Can I just sound a reassuring (maybe??) note here. I would say that without exception the parents I know who are currently in prep schools and are intending intending to go private for secondary school fall into two categories
1. those applying to the traditional public schools (whether as boarding or day pupils). They are virtually all choosing these school for kudos reasons, NOT academic (as many aren't even as good as the GS academically) and they wouldn't dream of suddenly switiching to the state system - I suspect this may change over the next few years as £30k a year becomes impossible to find but not yet.
2. those applying to local selective independent schools. These tend to be much cheaper than above and the parents do tend to feel they are getting a good academic deal BUT many choose them because they are easier to get into than GS and they know their kids won't scrape thru' the eleven plus. I agree that some parents from this group may decide that a GS delivers the same thing for 'free' but again only those who can no longer afford the £10K a year AND are confident their kids will qualify for GS.
Clearly this is only my personal experience but while all in all I do think there will be a shift towards GS becoming first choice for some people who previously would have gone privately BUT I don't think there will suddenly be a massive rush this time around. More a trickle that will turn into a steady stream maybe next year.
1. those applying to the traditional public schools (whether as boarding or day pupils). They are virtually all choosing these school for kudos reasons, NOT academic (as many aren't even as good as the GS academically) and they wouldn't dream of suddenly switiching to the state system - I suspect this may change over the next few years as £30k a year becomes impossible to find but not yet.
2. those applying to local selective independent schools. These tend to be much cheaper than above and the parents do tend to feel they are getting a good academic deal BUT many choose them because they are easier to get into than GS and they know their kids won't scrape thru' the eleven plus. I agree that some parents from this group may decide that a GS delivers the same thing for 'free' but again only those who can no longer afford the £10K a year AND are confident their kids will qualify for GS.
Clearly this is only my personal experience but while all in all I do think there will be a shift towards GS becoming first choice for some people who previously would have gone privately BUT I don't think there will suddenly be a massive rush this time around. More a trickle that will turn into a steady stream maybe next year.
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Sally-Anne
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Dear Mr Picky ... 
:: Over 70% of Bucks resident private school candidates who take the 11+ are in Chiltern & South Bucks.
:: The numbers for the two other areas (Aylesbury Vale - 12, and Wycombe - 43) have always been very small. Although the numbers for Wycombe are steadily rising, it is only at a rate of 3-4 each year. Even in a doomsday scenario, I really can't see hundreds of children appearing in those areas from such a low base.
:: In C&SB there are 11 prep schools. If an average Year 6 consists of 40 children (a few will be 20, a few will be 60) then there are 440 Year 6 children at Prep schools.
:: Last year there were 270 entrants from "Partner Schools" in C&SB (i.e. private). There are therefore approximately 170 children who didn't take the 11+ at private schools - the "unknowns".
:: Many of those will not live in Bucks, especially those at schools on the County boundaries. Let us assume half. There are therefore roughly 85 Bucks resident children who might crawl out of the woodwork to take the 11+ this year.
:: I know for sure that there are at least 6 at DS2's school who won't be doing so, and are definitely going to independent schools. (The number will be far higher at some schools, because their focus is entirely on independent senior schools and they actively discourage parents from putting their children in for the 11+.)
:: Multiply that by 11 schools and you have now removed a further 66 children.
The approximate "time-bomb" is therefore around 19 children, resident in Bucks, who might just sign up for the 11+.
You'll probably have a field day with that piece of deduction , but all my instincts say that there are very few children at independent schools who would previously have opted out of the 11+, but might now enter the system because of the credit crunch.
Sherlock
:: Over 70% of Bucks resident private school candidates who take the 11+ are in Chiltern & South Bucks.
:: The numbers for the two other areas (Aylesbury Vale - 12, and Wycombe - 43) have always been very small. Although the numbers for Wycombe are steadily rising, it is only at a rate of 3-4 each year. Even in a doomsday scenario, I really can't see hundreds of children appearing in those areas from such a low base.
:: In C&SB there are 11 prep schools. If an average Year 6 consists of 40 children (a few will be 20, a few will be 60) then there are 440 Year 6 children at Prep schools.
:: Last year there were 270 entrants from "Partner Schools" in C&SB (i.e. private). There are therefore approximately 170 children who didn't take the 11+ at private schools - the "unknowns".
:: Many of those will not live in Bucks, especially those at schools on the County boundaries. Let us assume half. There are therefore roughly 85 Bucks resident children who might crawl out of the woodwork to take the 11+ this year.
:: I know for sure that there are at least 6 at DS2's school who won't be doing so, and are definitely going to independent schools. (The number will be far higher at some schools, because their focus is entirely on independent senior schools and they actively discourage parents from putting their children in for the 11+.)
:: Multiply that by 11 schools and you have now removed a further 66 children.
The approximate "time-bomb" is therefore around 19 children, resident in Bucks, who might just sign up for the 11+.
You'll probably have a field day with that piece of deduction
, but all my instincts say that there are very few children at independent schools who would previously have opted out of the 11+, but might now enter the system because of the credit crunch. Sherlock
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Sally-Anne
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Sally-Anne
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- Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:10 pm
- Location: Buckinghamshire
A kindly Forum member has sent me the missing link, so I can now post the figures that I was looking for all along.
These are the figures for the total number of children attending state schools in Bucks for each year, excluding Special Schools, as at January 2008:
Year 9 - 5731
Year 8 - 5498
Year 7 - 5375
Year 6 - 5409
Year 5 - 5486
Year 4 - 5511
Year 3 - 5307
We can assume that the numbers at Private Schools are relatively constant because the number of places is constant.
The cohort is therefore fairly level for the foreseeable future.
S-A
These are the figures for the total number of children attending state schools in Bucks for each year, excluding Special Schools, as at January 2008:
Year 9 - 5731
Year 8 - 5498
Year 7 - 5375
Year 6 - 5409
Year 5 - 5486
Year 4 - 5511
Year 3 - 5307
We can assume that the numbers at Private Schools are relatively constant because the number of places is constant.
The cohort is therefore fairly level for the foreseeable future.
S-A
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bucks mum1
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