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 Post subject: Exams results.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:07 pm 
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Any idea no of occ boys that achieved above 303.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:01 pm 
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Be surprised if that figure is released anywhere but would expect several hundred as 303 is roughly 52% average mark.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:39 pm 
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[quote="kaynor"]Be surprised if that figure is released anywhere but would expect several hundred as 303 is roughly 52% average mark.[/

Don't agree. A score of 303 will require an average of 60%. The max is 400. Correct Me if am wrong. I don't think the catchment area will be low as 52% and then expect OC to be around 75% or more.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:23 pm 
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According to another forum member who contacted the CSSE, the maximum possible standardised score this year was 423.20.

The problem is that even if you know the number of OOC children that have passed, it doesn't actually give you any idea how many will actually apply for one of the southend schools. For those of us in North Essex, many are not prepared to consider them because of the length of travelling involved. So the number achieving 303 or more OOC will be a lot higher than the number that apply.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:28 pm 
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Abu1 wrote:
kaynor wrote:
Be surprised if that figure is released anywhere but would expect several hundred as 303 is roughly 52% average mark.[/

Don't agree. A score of 303 will require an average of 60%. The max is 400. Correct Me if am wrong. I don't think the catchment area will be low as 52% and then expect OC to be around 75% or more.


315 is about 60% as it was last year, note this is only approximate. 65% more often than not guarantees a place OC at one of the Southend grammars. 75% is nearer for the Chelmsford grammars. Sanity check it, remember VR counts double.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:52 pm 
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Location: Chelmsford and pleased
Abu1 wrote:
kaynor wrote:
Be surprised if that figure is released anywhere but would expect several hundred as 303 is roughly 52% average mark.[/

Don't agree. A score of 303 will require an average of 60%. The max is 400. Correct Me if am wrong. I don't think the catchment area will be low as 52% and then expect OC to be around 75% or more.


If you look at the standardisation thread, you will see that 303 works out between 52% and 53% as Kaynor posted.

Edit: sorry, the mean of 300 works out between those percentages, not 303.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:59 pm 
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From a statistical point of view, we can attempt to estimate an answer using a number of assumptions:

1. The distribution of scores follows a normal distribution curve
2. That there are roughly 800 boys and 800 girls sitting the exam in the Southend schools
3. We ignore the students who may sit the exams in the Southend schools who may prefer Chelmsford and Colchester schools
4. We ignore the number of students who sit the 11+ at Chelmsford and Colchester who may apply to Southend schools
5. We make the simple (but incorrect) assumption that the scores can be modelled using one normal curve across the whole Southend area

Based on the figures provided by CSSE for 2013 entry, the mean score was 300 and 18.8 is the standard deviation. In this case, 43.7% of scores will be above 303. Assuming 800 boys sitting in Southend area would translate into 349 boys out of 800 achieving a score of 303 (with a similar number for girls).

We do not know what proportion of this is in catchment or out of catchment. We do know that roughly 170 boys and 169 girls in catchment for Southend schools achieved the pass mark of 303. This would mean a minimum of 179 or so boys being out of catchment who achieve at least 303.

This figure is clearly an underestimate as there will be a significant percentage of candidates who sit the exam at Chelmsford (roughly 800 boys and 800 girls), and an even smaller percentage who sit the exam at Colchester (roughly 400 boys and 400 girls). Howver there is limited information to make any sensible guess as to what a suitable percentage to use...


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:06 am 
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My view, and I stant to be corrected, is that there will be a higher number of OOC children from Havering area who will apply to Southend schools as Colchester is too far. If the cut off for OOC children at KEGS is maybe 365, those OOC children living in Havering will most likely consider the South End schools. I think this will push up the cut off mark for OOC higher than is even predicted by the school(323). Previous comments show that there a quite a few places to available as 170 IC got above the 303. What is the number of children achieving between 323(proposed cut off for Southend OOC) and 365???? We do not know does anybody have a wild guess? Also if you add Redbridge OOC children as well. OOC score of southend will be higher than predicted we will have to wait and see.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:21 am 
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so you reckon a score above 323 stands a chance.


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 Post subject: Re: Exams results.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:54 am 
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I think this all depends on

1) How many DCs have scored between 303 and 350 OOC for CCHS, KEGS, WHSG & WHSB who has not scored high enough in the Redbridge exam to secured a place in WCHS and ICHS.

2) How many IC DCs for CCHS and KEGS who has scored below the minimum entry score indicated on the advice sheet (338 for CCHS and 355 for KEGS). These DCs are mostly likely to put the Southend GSs as their second preference and apply as OCC candidates.


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