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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:13 pm 

Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:11 am
Posts: 31
We are almost one year on from the changes made by the CSSE and the introduction of catchments to the Chelmsford Grammar schools.

11+ results were delivered soon after the exam and before we submitted our school preferences for 2013.

I was curious as to the effects this would have on the PAN's (published application numbers) for these schools.

Here is a quick comparison of PAN before and after the changes:

---------- 2012 PAN 2013 PAN

CCHS Girls - 834 - 553
KEGS Boys - 886 - 513
ColchCHS Girls - 573 - 460
CRGS Boys - 579 - 435

(figures from Essex County Council Secondary School booklets)

These figures could also have dropped because of a potential drop in birth rate for the corresponding year.

However, I thought it was an interesting snapshot of the effect that delivering results early has had on the preferences made.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:40 pm 

Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:20 pm
Posts: 1706
Location: Warwickshire
To avoid any confusion or panic I have changed the thread title from "Significant drop in PAN for Chelmsford and Colchester 2013".

PAN is usually used to represent "Planned Admission Number" (i.e. the number of places available) rather than "published application numbers" (i.e. the number of applicants). These figures do not indicate a fall in the number of places on offer.

A similar pattern of lower applications with early knowledge of results has also been observed elsewhere.

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:38 am 

Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:08 am
Posts: 78
Just make me sad to think how many children 'passed' and didn't get a place. Shows we really need more grammar schools. With the old system it just showed how many people took the 11 plus, but this system shows how many with a high enough grade to in theory gain a place, applied. It must mean hundreds of children 'passed' but didn't get place. Seems wrong somehow.

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:41 am 

Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 10:21 am
Posts: 438
The reason for the dropped in the number of applicants is most likely as a result of knowing the 11+ score before the submission of CAF and as for CCHS and KEGS the introduction of the 12.5 miles catchment area.

For the majority of DCs with 11+ score in the amber zone or below and for out of catchment area DCs with score below the green zone would probably not applying.

I don't think this will affect the PAN at all as there are still more applicants than available places in all the GS mentioned.

For CCHS, it is most likely for the school to suggest the ???top 500 (in catchment) and ??? top 100 (out of catchment) to apply. This is just my opinion!

For HBS (Barnet) only DDs in the top 500 with their Part 1 (CEM VR and Numerical reasoning questions) score to have their Part 2 (English and Maths extension papers) mark. That means the DD ranked 501 after CEM and might have done very well in the English and Maths extension questions will not get a place.

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:42 pm 

Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 11:08 pm
Posts: 1218
The problem with those numbers is that they show the total number of applicants for each school. What you don't know is how many of the CRGS applicants also applied for KEGS, or for one of the southend grammar schools. So although it looks as if there is 4/5 applicants for every place in reality the proportion left without a grammar school place will be a lot less than that.

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