Chelmsford CEM Results 2013 - General Discussion

[dez]

That would then give 37 for the supplementary if the first results of 843 don't include 2nd sitting.

When I took dd for the alternate sitting, I got the impression that there were around 30 girls there. Of course I didn't count them all that would have been too OCD even for me but I estimated it to be around 30 girls.

We will to wait until next week for the total numbers of DD who sat the test to be reviewed. If you estimation was correct for the alternative sitting, the total number mentioned by the headteacher appears accurate.

[HardWorkingDad]

Green Boundary only - DP Analysis, ***for illustration only***


Without more information on IC/ OOC figures, no mathematical model can forecast the amber and yellow boundaries.

"I can resist anything except temptation...."

It is possible to create a statistical model, but reader beware as I can't vouch for its accuracy in predicting boundaries..

If we assume that the 848 scores can be approximated with a standard normal distribution, then we can estimate the mean and standard deviation to a reasonable degree of comfort based on the limited information contained within:

300 girls gained scores within the range 104.01 - 143
300 girls gained scores within the range 92.01 - 104
248 girls gained scores within the range 50.01 – 92

A good statistical estimate is that the mean is 99.12 and a standard deviation of 13.01. This then matches the cumulative percentages of 35.4% of scores above 104 and 29.2% of scores 92 or below.

Using these estimates, this would translate into a statistical model with:

Top 24 scores cut-off around 123.92
Top 120 scores cut-off around 113.09
Top 200 scores cut-off around 108.49
Top 250 scores cut-off around 106.59

I'll caveat again, "There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics..."

I would expect that the normalisation would produce a mean of 100, but that the distribution would skewed towards higher scores (DDs of below average ability are less likely to be entered than those of above average ability). I don't think it would alter your estimates of the cut-off much though.

The ranking order would have made things easier. It would have been easier if the number of DDs er band was banded at 120 borders.Now it seems we cannot be relaxed even at 119.*** for IC talk less of those in the OOC group.

[BadDad]

to HardWorkingDad - FYI if it helps as per aang's model you are in top 46 . Well done your DD!

[HardWorkingDad]

Thanks BadDad.

DD lost her appetite last night. She wanted to know her scores as they did not arrive yesterday. Good Luck everyone.

Choose the schools you want in the right order and let the scores take care of themselves.

[RDR]

CEM: 111.35
CSSE:337.493

in catchment, March Birthday

Both seem about the same place in the distribution, on aang's figures that puts her around 150-160 in the order so a reasonable chance of getting in.
Pleased

[ahap]

A DC who sat CSSE in SHSG scored 300. something but for CEM she has scored 128. something. This DD scores very well in tests usually the parents have said to my friend. The parents had asked SHSG for a re-mark but has been rejected. I don't know the full story but anyway she has scored quite high for CEM. ChCHS will be in their CAF but they like SHSG as it is nearer to home. Should they appeal? They are not sure whether the DC will get a place at ChCHS OOC. I have a feeling they might as the score seems quite high but I may be wrong but they want SHSG. Any ideas?

Thanks for the pms kind hearted folks. I'll let them know.
I told them too to appeal after allocation as it is the only way if they want SHSG -hope they succeed. Looks like a very able child had a bad day for CSSE but had done so well for CEM. What a situation to be in.

[cetaylormade]

CEM: 111.35
CSSE:337.493

in catchment, March Birthday

Both seem about the same place in the distribution, on aang's figures that puts her around 150-160 in the order so a reasonable chance of getting in.
Pleased

Rdr your dd's scores are almost identical to mine - she scored 337.637 at csse and 111.15 CEM!!!

[RDR]

CEM: 111.35
CSSE:337.493

in catchment, March Birthday

Both seem about the same place in the distribution, on aang's figures that puts her around 150-160 in the order so a reasonable chance of getting in.
Pleased

Rdr your dd's scores are almost identical to mine - she scored 337.637 at csse and 111.15 CEM!!!

Reasonably able child performing near her best both times, let's hope that the odd .2s don't matter either way

[RDR]

If you would like to have an estimate of your DD's ranking follow this link.
Put in aang's figures for the mean (99.12) and standard deviation (13.01)
Put your DD's score in the above box and click on calculate
Multiply the result by 848 and the result is your estimate.

DD's 111.35 comes out at 147 which seems about right,
Don't forget that we don't have any imformation about the in/out of catchment split and that not everyone above their score will put CCHS first on their form or even apply -- there is hope up to at least 200 if not further.

[Araucana girl]

Now feel like I have some hope depending on the number of ooc in the top 300 and mock sitters.

DD got 110.02 and I am so so proud of her. Thank you everyone who has PM'd me with support. You have all been a lifeline, I have been so distraught after the CSSE results, dd worked so hard and is good strong level 5s in year 5, I was mortified but maybe she just put all her efforts into CEM.

I was so worried I should have picked an exam and not done both but.....

I know that we are still not there yet but there is now a good amount of hope. Please please let lots of ooc be in that top 300.

I am so happy so so happy........ Proud proud mum.