I do think this year that Tommies may not go down as far as it did last year. There was a horrible business with 10 kids sitting on 215 and they had only 5 places. In the end the GCC drew lots which is apparently in their constitution (correct me if I am wrong here Tolstoy).
If more girls pass for Pates that means less boy entrants there than in previous years. As Tommies only takes 108 then there must be more boys, who might have gone to Pates but couldn't due to the higher number of girls, this year vying for the places. However, I do believe Tommies did take over PAN and that appeals were successful. I don't know how many of the 5 boys on 215 were amoung the appealants.
How far down the list they will go is anyone's guess. Unpleasant to have this all dragging out for so long but most families manage a happy outcome when the 'shakedown' happens after allocation. Hang in there, I reckon you have a good shot at it. Oh, and remember there will be boys in the Tommies cohort who will go to Crypt, Marling and Pates so that 235 gets wittled down nicely when they are out of the equation