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 Post subject: The Twilight Zone
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:33 pm 
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Just to start off a new topic with somthing from the results thread...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

highsideuk wrote:
Tommy's are being slightly more sensible. Apparently he is one of 263 that are "of the required standard".
Only 108 places though.

Has anyone got any ideas for working out what the likelihood is of him being offered a place on March 2nd?

Capers responded:
If everyone who ticked Tommies also ticked Crypt, then 263/2=132 for 108 places, so chances are a lot higher than initial appearance. And some may well have also ticked and got Pates, so that lowers the odds even more.
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:37 pm 
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So of all the entrants in the whole of Glos, only 263 that passed have asked to be considered for Tommys?

And I have the hope and expectation that a large proportion of them will go to other schools.

Ah! Next question is.... what proportion? And can I work out how far up the ranking my son is?

By the way, does anyone know if Tommy's would have told me if he was one of the top 108?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:49 pm 
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Location: Gloucestershire
highsideuk wrote:
By the way, does anyone know if Tommy's would have told me if he was one of the top 108?


Only the Stroud schools seem to do that.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:58 pm 
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Thanks Capers.

So it looks like we've just got to think about something else for another 3 months rather than thrash around guessing?

Ho hum.
I wonder if England will beat South Africa in the rugby.
(It's not working).


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:16 pm 
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If we had some idea what the cut off mark for Pates was we would then be able to roughly guess how our own DS's scores relate to other's. Does anyone know what the Pates score is marked out of is it out of 260 or 280?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:21 pm 
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Location: On another planet called Gloucester!
highsideuk wrote:
So of all the entrants in the whole of Glos, only 263 that passed have asked to be considered for Tommys?

And I have the hope and expectation that a large proportion of them will go to other schools.

Ah! Next question is.... what proportion? And can I work out how far up the ranking my son is?

By the way, does anyone know if Tommy's would have told me if he was one of the top 108?


Hi and welcome highsideuk and congratulations to little highsideuk for his pass. That is an enormous achievement and nobody can take that away from him.

Having gone through the process last year, I would say that many of those hoping for Pates would have ticked for Tommies as well and most of those opting for Tommies would have ticked for Crypt as well. I would also think, perhaps that some of Marling would have done likewise so the total passes is not particularly helpful in whether you have gained a place or not it seems!

It's not the best process and this is a bit of guesswork however I suppose you could take off 50 or so places (as these boys will be taking up places at Pates being co-ed and approx of course) so that brings the amount down to around 200.

Hopefully then there will be enough places between Tommies and Crypt for all boys passing the exam to get a place at a Grammar - it's just which one!

Did Crypt not give out the scores this year? By having this information you would be able to judge whereabouts your DS stands in gaining a place at Tommies. I believe a Crypt score of about 126 also got you a pass at Tommies last year - but you would be at the lower end of the passes. This is all not of any help if Crypt haven't given out the actual marks this year!

Anyway enough of my rambling!

B

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PS I am Burneth and I am a lady....!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:30 pm 
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Burneth wrote:
congratulations to little highsideuk for his pass. That is an enormous achievement and nobody can take that away from him.


Well said Burneth.
Get back to work Highsideuk.....and don't be late home :D


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:41 pm 
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................


Last edited by Glos_Mum on Wed Jan 01, 2014 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:26 pm 
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Anyone fancy picking a hole in my stats?....

263 passed at Tommys.
There are 108 places.
If all of those 263 who passed go on to apply for Tommy's as first choice then my boy needs to be in top 108 out of 263 which is top 41% of them.
(I know that is not remotely likely - it's just a worst case)
Tommy's pass mark (105 one paper or 210 for 2) is top 40%.
41% of 40% is 16.4%.
So my boy needs to be in the top 16.4% of all those that asked to be considered for Tommy's to be sure or getting a place.

My boy was given a mark of 233 by Pate's.
Now we make the big leap that is statistically flawed.
We say that 233 at Pate's is the same as 233 for Tommy's.
Well OK, I know it's not the same. It will be different because the children taking the test and applying to be considered by Tommy's is are not the same children as those applying to be considered by Pate's.
It is tempting to conjecture that Pate's marks will be lower than Tommy's because it is harder to get in to Pate's so maybe only brighter kids bother to apply. But then it costs nothing to ask to be considered so that must be an incentive for everyone to tick the box.

So 233 for Pates tells you nothing definite about his Tommy's score - but surely it is SOME sort of approximation - so let's go with it.

WARNING - A LEVEL STATS ALERT!!!!!!
The standardised mark has a mean of 100 and SD of 15.
This means that sons score of 233 (for 2 papers - so standardised 116.5) corresponds to the 86th percentile - or top 14%.

So my lad needs to be in the top 16.4% of the Tommy's boys to be sure of a place.
It looks like he made it into the top 14% of the Pates children.

The fact that of the 263 Tommy's boys, some proportion will go elsewhere, means I can be even surer he is OK.
The fact that Pate's and Tommy's scores are, technically, unrelated means I cannot be sure.

Ho hum.
Any comments anyone?


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 Post subject: twilight zone
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:29 pm 
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friend's child scored 128 for Crypt and is in the top 120 placed students for Pates

Incidentally, did anyone else only receive a letter from Shire Hall today? I thought I'd ticked all the boxes to hear from the schools DD is eligible for but the Shire Hall letter referred only to Denmark Road. DD qualified but there is no rank or score. Does the absence of a letter from Pates mean DD was unsuccessful?

definitely feeling in the twilight zone :D

best wishes


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