Is 2011 a 'bulge' year?

[stressmonkey]

Hi, I am new to the forum but have been a very interested distant observer for a while - and found everyone's collective knowledge to be really interesting and very generously shared. We live in Watford and are going through the 'choices' of secondary schools for our DS. In the interest of completeness we visited Queens, WGSB, Ricky, Bushey Meads and Westfield all of which had their pros and cons.

The head of Westfield pointed out that the Sept2011 cohort were part of a boom year and she expected Westfield to be oversubscribed and statistically more akin to the 2009 year. Has anyone else heard this in their visits - for us this makes our chances of getting into WGSB (our preferred choice) even harder as we are hoping that the distance criteria will help us out if the academic test route goes wrong on the day.

Has anyone heard this on their rounds?

Many thanks

Stressmonkey

[*** CONFUSED !!! ***]

Hi
In answer to your post, I believe that 2000 was a "baby boom" year, due to the millenium and lots of people having babies, therefore there will be even more competition for children to get school places within Hertfordsshire (and other areas).
I think it was nice of the Head to point that out.
Hope this info helps.

Best wishes.

[mitasol]

Have a look at the stats provided by Herman. I think the much hyped millennium baby boom never actually materialised. http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/forum/ ... by#p199191

Birth rate
1998 635,901
1999 621,872
2000 604,441

I suppose it is possible you had a local baby boom.

[stressmonkey]

Many thanks for that information - I can rest (a little!) easier now!

[decaff]

Hello,

I am new to this forum but have been reading postings for some time. I have been through awful process before, and ended up feeling very let down by system. My eldest is currently in year 10. My youngest is in year 4 and I will have to go through it all again as I can't rely on the sibling rule buts thats another story.

Anyway was just thinking about 2011 being a bulge year. My friend moved to area quite near Rickmansworth school 4 years ago and was unable to get her child into any of the local primary schools as they were all full. Her child is now in year 6. The primary my youngest attends near Ricky school is unusual as it has 3 forms in each year and unusually all 3 classes in current year 6 are full. This is indeed unusual the current year 4 for example has around 25 in each class, although I believe year 3 is also full.

I was just wondering if there is a bit of a bulge in this area this year ie particularly around Rickmansworth Croxley etc. I guess the LA would know how many children will be applying for secondary places each year and I wonder if this is why head at Westfield made above comments.

[2Girlsmum]

Please remember that children also are born in other countries and move here with their parents. Quite a few are at our school:)