1148 views and hardly any replies.
You have the data already and have seen that the score drops vary from 1 mark to 9 marks in the past 5 years. The fact you are 14th with a score of 252 and a current cutoff of 256 tells me there are probably around 3 DC per mark.
I would say you possibly have a shot but it is a very long shot. Your best chance lies in the fact that most outer catchment will have other options and you must hope they choose those options. The biggest change normally comes in the first shakeup as everyone confirms their choices.
If it was me I would wait until the 2nd run and make my mental decision then. If you move to top 2 after that then worth keeping hopes alive but anything further down the list I would cut my losses and accept the selection you have.