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 Post subject: Low birth year
PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:47 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2011 6:50 pm
Posts: 76
We've been told at two separate non -selective open evenings that this is a low birth year and less children will be applying for school places. DS has passed so have been looking now at GS and no HT there has mentioned this. Just wonder how this would affect the Kent Test pass - surely they would still pass enough children to fill the GS to the maximum. Our DS's first choice is our furthest away school and highly unlikely to get it judging by how far the school has taken from in previous years, however, they have still said it is worth a chance due to drop in numbers. Is this really likely does anyone know? :?


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:55 pm 
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Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:51 am
Posts: 8116
I think the comments about it being a low birth rate year are true - will find the numbers in a mo - have posted them somewhere before.

TBH though it isn't THAT low - there has been a gradual decrease to towards the millennium and then an increase later.. what usually surprises people is that the "millennium baby boom" wasn't really a boom at all...

here we are - the birth rate minima ... makes a change from sunspots :roll:

1998 635,901
1999 621,872
2000 604,441

2001 594,634
2002 596,122
2003 621,469
2004 639,721
2005 645,835

2006 669,601
2007 690,013
2008 708,711


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:05 pm 
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Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 1:12 pm
Posts: 52
JLT I would agree with your comment about passing enough pupils to fill grammar school places, I don't see what difference a low birth rate year makes. Only that the borderline kids have got a pass this year and may not of got a pass on another year (out of a bigger cohort). I think that makes sense!!!!!! :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:31 pm 
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Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2011 2:24 pm
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Totally confused now! Thought someone had mentioned previously that the individual pass rate per paper had increased this year - meaning less boarderline kids surely?


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:39 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2011 6:50 pm
Posts: 76
thanks herman munster for those stats, I guess though with national stats there's still no way of knowing how much it will affect us here in Kent. Really miffed that we might not get our first choice as live too far away yet DS has set his heart on it, yet someone nearer who sticks it down as a 4th choice would get a place!! :(


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:23 am 
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Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:21 am
Posts: 88
I'm a bit confused :? , can someone explain something to me?

If 21% of children pass the 11+ each year, then does that mean the number of grammar school places available fluctuates with it? I thought each school had its set intake - be it 120, 150 or whatever. So in a low birth rate year does that mean the GS and the HS proportionately fill less places? I had presumed that the grammars would fill their places as is such a huge demand.

So my question really is why the number of 11+ passes is calculated by the percentage of children taking the test as opposed to the actual number of grammar school places as listed by the schools?


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:36 pm 
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Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 1:12 pm
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Read in local paper today that there are 800 plus more passes than grammar school places in Kent!! :(


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 2:55 pm 
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Posts: 515
Some will choose a non-grammar, and a quite large number of passes will go into the independent sector. But on the other side, the 4% successful appeals have yet to join the fray.


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 5:36 pm 
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Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:29 pm
Posts: 87
And some having passed both Bexley and Kent will only take up one offer.


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 Post subject: Re: LOW BIRTH YEAR
PostPosted: Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:22 am 
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Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2009 3:43 pm
Posts: 523
Location: Twells
"This standard is chosen to select 21% of all children in the Kent selective areas (another 4% of children being added through the headteacher assessment procedure), to bring the total to 25%. Children from outside the selective areas or out of county have to achieve the same scores. This may appear to be less forgiving than 2010's aggregate 360 with each mark needing to be 117 or more that allowed the child to dip a little in one subject, but the same proportion of children has been selected, and the headteacher assessment process is designed to pick up those of the required standard who may have fallen short.
The number of children who sat the test is almost identical to last year, at 11,003 (10,947 in 2010). 4020 Kent children passed the test, a small decline in numbers from 2010 (4139), reflecting the smaller number of children in the age group.There were 1288 successful out of county applicants, compared to 1,156 last year, but only a quarter of these were offered places in Kent grammar schools in 2011"

This is taken from the website of "he who must not be named", if I am reading this right the low birth rate won't affect things hugely except that if there are fewer Kent children applying the catchment areas around certain schools may get wider.


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