First grammar in 50 yrs: campus in Sevenoaks proposed

[Villagedad]

Does anyone have some real statistics? Hopefully the LA does or there will be even more of a problem for the non-selectives if the population is really shooting up that much.

Erm, did you not read the KCC stats on the earlier post..?

[mystery]

Ah no I hadn't spotted those stats in this thread. Thank you for that. I'd looked at the grammar campaign website and not seen anything concrete so assumed there was nothing available.

It's kind of marginal. Interesting that more than 25% of the Kent population pass. They weren't quoting figures that high a few years ago for the pass rate when I enquired. If they dropped the pass rate back to 25% like it used to be, then they would need 212 extra grammar places at the peak of the bulge in 2018. There are six grammars in West Kent, and some grammar passers who live close to the West Kent borders who go to other grammars. So it could be possible that a small expansion at each school would be an option to consider alongside an annex. Also, presumably, there could be other options for the location of a grammar annex - not just Sevenoaks.

What do the stats show for other areas in Kent? Is it the same picture or a bulge in some areas and down in others? That would make a big difference on the planning front.

Very interesting.

[Villagedad]

Interesting that more than 25% of the Kent population pass. They weren't quoting figures that high a few years ago for the pass rate when I enquired. If they dropped the pass rate back to 25% like it used to be, then they would need 212 extra grammar places at the peak of the bulge in 2018.

If you do a FOI request to KCC on 2011 11-plus passes you will see that the pass rate in Sevenoaks primaries is well over 40%... Although this is somewhat counterbalanced by a much lower pass in other areas of Kent hence the 25% overall Kent pass rate..

These are the figures KCC are making their decision on to site a campus in Sevenoaks.

[mystery]

Your earlier message says that 28% pass for Kent as a whole. What percentage are they using to calculate how many new grammar places are needed in each area? The answer as to whether any area of Kent needs a "grammar annex" will depend not only on the predicted population growth at age 11 onwards in that area and the desired 11+ pass rate. I don't know how the pass rate has crept up so much in recent years. Upping the pass rate to increase the apparent need for a grammar annex is a possibility?

[Villagedad]

Your earlier message says that 28% pass for Kent as a whole. What percentage are they using to calculate how many new grammar places are needed in each area? The answer as to whether any area of Kent needs a "grammar annex" will depend not only on the predicted population growth at age 11 onwards in that area and the desired 11+ pass rate. I don't know how the pass rate has crept up so much in recent years. Upping the pass rate to increase the apparent need for a grammar annex is a possibility?

If you want firmer more complex statistics I'd suggest an FOI to KCC.

I just know that due to the coaching culture, the need to get a high score for the superselectives (TWBGS catchment doesn't go out to Sevenoaks), and lack of grammars, Sevenoaks primaries have always performed extremely highly in the 11-plus - with one school in particular (naming no names) achieving a 75% pass rate in the Kent test in 2011 from those tested (which works out at 71% when compared against the whole school year).

[mystery]

Guessing Amherst!!

[Just1-2go]

I'm not sure that some extra reception classes at a few schools in TW proves that there is a need for 180 more grammar places per year in West Kent as a whole.

http://www.thisissussex.co.uk/Tunbridge ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

An article from the courier - interestingly 1.Most of the primary schools mentioned are those closest to the TW grammars,not sure of the relevance of this but interesting all the same and 2. No mention of secondary schools although there must be a knock on effect.

[Villagedad]

I'm not sure that some extra reception classes at a few schools in TW proves that there is a need for 180 more grammar places per year in West Kent as a whole.

http://www.thisissussex.co.uk/Tunbridge ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

An article from the courier - interestingly 1.Most of the primary schools mentioned are those closest to the TW grammars,not sure of the relevance of this but interesting all the same and 2. No mention of secondary schools although there must be a knock on effect.

There was a similar story in the Kent Courier, about the pressure on primary school places in Tunbridge Wells reaching boiling point within the next two years, according to latest birth rate figures:

http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Primary-pla ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apparently 8 Tunbridge Wells primary schools are set to be over capacity by the 2014-15 academic year which will have a massive squeeze on available grammar places over the nexty few years..

http://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgEPetitio ... ID=3918163" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[mystery]

The first article did refer to there still being 61 surplus places in 2014-15 though, and also said that there might also be the issue of people moving into that area. So are other areas going down? I don't know. It's all supposition without some decent statistics covering a wider area.

If more grammar places are needed over the next few years, it still would seem to make more sense to me to expand the current grammars than spend the money on a "grammar annex" in Sevenoaks.

What is the status of the debate in March? Who debates against who about what exactly?

The application for a church free school on the old Wildernesse site went in this weekend. Is the grammar annex going to be in direct competition for the same piece of land? Is anyone trying to set up a grammar school as a free school, or can a free school not be selective? I don't know much about these things. I know of another available location for a school, with good rail links, but it's not in Sevenoaks town, but it is in Sevenoaks district.

Are there going to be similar issues with a lack of grammar places in the East of Kent if the population is due to increase, or is something different there?

[Just1-2go]

If more grammar places are needed over the next few years, it still would seem to make more sense to me to expand the current grammars than spend the money on a "grammar annex" in Sevenoaks.

That seems sensible in theory but all the Tunbridge Wells grammars are shoe-horned into pockets of land, within 1/2 a mile of each other and two church schools in a fairly built up area, allowing very lttle scope for physical expansion(I'm not sure about the Tonbridge Schools) not to mention the already chaotic traffic situation in this part of the town. Also with the county line so close expanding Skinners' is more likely to benefit those (high scorers) in East Sussex than children in the parts of Kent near Sevenoaks.