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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:05 pm 
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Any advice appreciated. I have to fill in my CAF form now and am debating what to put first and second. My DS's score is 407, he would like to put Judd first and Skinners second. Last year Judd cut off was 411 and Skinners 404. With a large amount taking the test this year will it influence the cut offs? I don't want to jeopardise my chances for both schools by putting them in the wrong order. Thanks anyone.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:22 pm 
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Pretty sure that after waiting list/appeals etc Judd went down to 408 last year. Not that thats very helpful shuff is it with 407!!! I should phone up and ask for another look round. I have heard they are 'asking' you for your score before they except you for a tour, so you might know by their reaction to your score. :wink:


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:40 pm 
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Thanks tonbridgemum. The Head did say at the open evening that he was expecting a lower cut off this year because of early testing. I'm also a bit worried that Skinners pass mark is going to zoom and we won't hit that one either! Oh I hate all this feeling around in the dark.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:49 pm 
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shuff wrote:
Any advice appreciated. I have to fill in my CAF form now and am debating what to put first and second. My DS's score is 407, he would like to put Judd first and Skinners second. Last year Judd cut off was 411 and Skinners 404. With a large amount taking the test this year will it influence the cut offs? I don't want to jeopardise my chances for both schools by putting them in the wrong order. Thanks anyone.


You won't jeopardise your chance for either school by putting them in your genuine preference order. Judd will be harder to get into than Skinners. Put Judd first and Skinners second. If you get refused Judd then ask to go on the wait list after 2nd March. You can do this even while you have a place offered to you by Skinners. Some people think the Judd cut off mark will be lower this year anyway. Nobody can say for sure...


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:53 pm 
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Thanks, did the Grammars get a list of scores when the primary schools did, or was that pure speculation from the Head of Judd? I'm also still wondering about this years NV score affecting more boys than girls, being detrimental to boys I mean. sorry a bit waffly


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:09 pm 
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The Head's remark was speculation, since even if he knows the scores for all boys in the 11 plus he cannot know which boys/parents will choose to put Judd at the top of their CAF lists on 7th November. Some of the high scorers will prefer other schools entirely (I know several who prefer Skinners to Judd, for example) and some may have St.Olave's higher up their list than Judd, and entry to St.Olave's is dependent on a score in an entirely separate exam in a few weeks time.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:13 pm 
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What are your thoughts on Skinners score going up because of a high volume year?


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:41 pm 
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I'm hoping that it doesn't go up! The Skinners cut-off scores have risen over the last few years (being approximately 397, 400, 404, 404). I believe that those are the first round scores and candidates with lower scores will have got into the school from the waiting list after the March acceptances/ declines.

It's clear that the new system of early testing has encouraged a greater proportion of the children in Kent to have a go at the test. You have to assume that the very clever kids would always have been entered for the test anyway but the more borderline candidates might previously have been spared the hassle of testing when the outcome of the test was not to be known before the application form goes in. Presumably now some of those "unlikely" passes that would have not entered in previous years have now turned into actual passes. But the overall proportion of passes as a percentage of all Year 6 kids in Kent (not just those taking the test) will not have changed. Logically therefore there will be kids who would have been entered by confident parents last year as well as this and would have passed last year but will not pass this year because of the new entrants this year who score better than them but would not have been entered last year. I don't think that this should affect the Judd/ Skinners cut off scores since they are at a different part of the results curve.

So what would affect the Skinners cut-off scores? I think these factors would change the cut-off score:

1. Number of candidates choosing the school ahead of other schools for which they are qualified
2. Number of candidates failing to meet standard for more competitive schools and getting into Skinners as their second or third choice
3. Number of out-of-area candidates applying to the school
4. Relative performance of boys vs girls in the test (if girls have a good year and take more of the high scores then cut-off for boys schools should fall)
5. Success of appeals in increasing the intake sizes at Judd and Skinners.


Some of these are only going to have a very small effect. But as you move away from the extremes of the score range (eg 420) the depth of the performance curve deepens so a few marks can cover a large number of candidates.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:42 pm 
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I know of someone who got into Skinners in the 2nd round of allocations with a sore of 386 for the Sept 2006 entry. This was their only choice on the CAF.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:57 pm 
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Location: Tunbridge Wells
I think that whether the higher volume has an impact depends on why there is a high volume. If it is because the year is big then the scores will rise, unless the super selectives expand accordingly. If it is because more marginal candidates take the exam then it probably won't affect them.

I think there a couple of other factors too.

The earlier exam means that children with high scores know it and are therefore more likely to put Judd/Skinners/TGS down, when previously they might not have bothered if they hadn't been confident of a high score (some of our DD's friends are in this group).

Similarly it was only a couple of years ago that schools stopped knowing the preference order, which completely changed the risk of putting Judd/Skinners/TGS first. Maybe this one has worked its way through by now.

On balance, well it's all good clean speculation but sadly I suspect the scores will tend to increase rather than decrease. Since I also suspect the exams are more girl friendly this year (easier maths) I think they will rise more for girls than boys but then as the doting father of a DD I am not remotely paranoid.


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