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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:37 am 
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Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2008 4:22 pm
Posts: 526
Location: Tonbridge & Tunbridge Wells
Hi everyone

This is one for those who are targetting Judd, Skinners and Tunbridge Wells Boys GS for their DS's.

I don't know if anyone has done any analysis but what are the realistic odds of getting into one of these schools for a DS who is in a good local state primary school (i.e. in Tonbridge & Tunbridge Wells and surrounding villages)...?

What with:

a) 2 of the schools above being super-selectives and allowing pupils from out of area,
b) some very good private primary schools competing for places,
c) those applying from out of area competing for places, and
d) the whole tutoring thing,

...I am wondering what position your DS would need to be in out of a class of 15 boys (30 pupils in total) to be in with a realistic shot of a GS place in these 3 schools..?

I'm thinking that it may only be a realistic option for the top 3 boys in each local state school on average..? Thoughts or opinions from anyone who has been through it (the 11plus) or is going through it would be welcomed :)

And outside that I would have thought you would need to be thinking about church attendance and/or being in the right catchment for the best of the comps.

I don't mean to sound downbeat, but I am a realist and do like to know what it will take to have any realistic chance :?

Thanks, Villagedad

PS. I would have thought this also applies to those who are targetting TOGS, TWGGS & Weald for their DD's too.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:19 pm 
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Hello (again) Villagedad

I don't think you can make any predictions based on a sample as small as a class size.

My kids are at a highly-regarded, rather middle-class, state primary school and my experience with it over the years has been that the number of boys getting into those three boys grammar schools varies dramatically from year to year, mainly because the number of very intelligent boys in a class varies dramatically from year to year!

To put numbers to those generalisations, this year the school has a small Year 6 of about 24 pupils and 8 of those have places at Judd/Skinners/TWBGS (possibly 9 on appeal). 7 of those 8 are Judd and Skinners - only one boy has been able to get TWBGS as far as I know and that was through the sibling rule, since the catchment has been tight this year and most pupils live too far north.

Looking back at the school's leavers' destinations, the figures for the Year 6 boys in their class of 24 to 30 pupils (so probably 12 to 15 boys) for getting into Judd/Skinners/TWBGS are: 2005 - 5 boys, 2006 - 3 boys, 2007 - 7 boys, 2008 - 4 boys, 2009 - 8 or 9 boys.

The girls' results are even more variable - last year none of them got high enough marks for TOGS (except possibly for 2 who went private), this year 6 of them did. Usually it is 2 from each class that go to TOGS. Weald is normally also 2 girls and so is TWGGS - the latter probably through appeals since all will be outside catchment.

If you want to forecast and compare then it isn't as simple as looking at scoring ability, as you probably know. TWBGS, TWGGS and Weald all have catchment issues. In tough years like this one and probably next, the catchments seem to have become tighter, so if your DS doesn't score really highly but still passes, then the probability of getting in is all down to where you live. Weald has special catchment areas that are prioritised over geographically closer ones, just to make it trickier for parents to follow! And of course if you are too far east of Tonbridge or Tunbridge Wells (eg Five Oak Green, Paddock Wood, East Peckham) then you will be out of area altogether for all the schools, even though you may be geographically closer than many who are in area...

Oh joy.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 6:22 pm 
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Changing the subject a bit...
I have a friend whose son scored 404 this year and is keen to get into Skinners either on the waiting list or on appeal. My feeling is that it may be harder than ever to get in on the waiting list this year, mainly because as parents knew scores before filling in the CAF, their choices would be much more considered and I would imagine the Skinners acceptance of places will be pretty high. Hope this isn't the case for their sake, I'm sure they don't want to go to appeal, any ideas?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:04 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2008 9:53 am
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Location: kent
Hi All
I suspect there will still be some movement on the waiting lists but that it may take longer. There will be people appealing for Judd and may be even TWBG. Some people may still prefer to take an IND, Skinners could have been a back up. I don't think there will be much inital movement but it will alter as appeals start to be heard.

If you live north of Sevenoaks or even in Sevenoaks then according to the Sevenoaks Chronicle even if you pass the 11+ you only have a 48 % chance of getting your first choice on allocation. In our school it was actually only a 20% chance if you were a boy of getting any of the three grammars in Tonbridge or Tunbridge Wells. The girls fared better mainly because of the sibling rule otherwise that again would be only 50% Contrast that with those lucky enough to live in TW where its a supposed 72 % chance of getting your first choice!

Hopefully the figs will look better once appeals have been heard and the waiting lists give a little. I doubt that everyone in Sevenoaks who has passed will be able to get a local grammar.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 7:32 am 
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Like Tired Dad has said it is too difficult to make a prediction.

However, living where you live, if your sons pass the 11+ then they are almost guranteed a place at TWBG, as I can't see there being 180 boys living closer to the school than you.

A couple of years ago, the head master at Judd stated that in order to get top marks in the 11+ (ie 140) you only needed to score about 70% and a pass of 120 points only needed about 50%.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 9:26 am 
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Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2008 4:22 pm
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Location: Tonbridge & Tunbridge Wells
SSM wrote:
Like Tired Dad has said it is too difficult to make a prediction.

However, living where you live, if your sons pass the 11+ then they are almost guranteed a place at TWBG, as I can't see there being 180 boys living closer to the school than you.

A couple of years ago, the head master at Judd stated that in order to get top marks in the 11+ (ie 140) you only needed to score about 70% and a pass of 120 points only needed about 50%.

Thanks everyone, and thanks to Tired Dad and SSM, very reasuring!

Interesting comment from the Judd head.., puts in into context really as I thought you needed to be 100% for the top mark.
Cheers
Villagedad


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 9:41 am 
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Again changing the subject a little, i still dont understand how successful appeals are found places. For example, If TWBG is full and 10 boys are found to be successful, how are they fitted in :?
If the panel is independant then in theory all appeals could be successful? Or am i missing something very obvious!! Enlighten me!!


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 9:56 am 
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Location: kent
I think in theory all appeals for oversubscription could succeed but in practise this never happens. There will come a point where if a school has reached its pan, it cannot admit too many others, as to do so would adversely effect those already at the school. I think to win an oversubscription appeal you need to show that if your DC is admitted then those at the school will not suffer as a result. I think some schools argue the point that they couldn't possibly accept anyone else more strongly than others. There seem to be so many boys who have not got into TWBG this year on distance, that i doubt whether the school could take them all on appeal.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 11:43 am 
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Location: Tonbridge & Tunbridge Wells
kentish maid wrote:
There seem to be so many boys who have not got into TWBG this year on distance, that i doubt whether the school could take them all on appeal.

What typically would be the cut off point with regards to distance for TWBG, and is it worked out on an "as the crow flies" basis?


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:08 pm 
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Villagedad wrote:
Thanks everyone, and thanks to Tired Dad and SSM, very reasuring!

Interesting comment from the Judd head.., puts in into context really as I thought you needed to be 100% for the top mark.
Cheers
Villagedad


This year, in order to score the maximum 140 mark in each subject, your child would need to have scored:

Verbal Reasoning: 60 out of 80 (75%)

Non-Verbal Reasoning: 51 or 52 out of 72 (70% to 72%)

Maths: 40 out of 50 (80%)

It was generally reckoned that the Maths paper was easier than normal this year, hence the high percentage score required to reach the 140 mark. You can assume that your child will get 2 or 3 extra marks if they are in the younger half of the yeargroup, to account for their relative immaturity.


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