AGSB Out Of Catchment Chances

[enigma]

Thanks Tiddlymum. Yeah I've just realized it and worried this much as soon as I've done the LEA and went past Oct. 31st. so I'm now becoming a little bit 'paranoid' and March is still in the distance. My only hope is if AGSB won't go high up to over 20 points from the last OOC, possibly they won't but you'll never know, anything can happen. Tiddlymum, have you also included comp in your LEA before if you don't mind me asking? The reason why I didn't include comp was my fear of being offered straight to the comp bypassing all them 3 grammars perhaps due distance issues or so (?)

[enigma]

Yeah you're right Catseye... t'will be a good decision as I'm also working in Birchwood Ind'l Park and I can save mileage by 50% ... silly this indeed, we're just in-love with Stockport that's why

[Catseye]

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[Catseye]

"My only hope is if AGSB won't go high up to over 20 points from the last OOC"

are you having a laugh ? 20 points above historical pass mark you obviously have no idea of a binomial distribution or otherwise known the bell shaped curve -distribution of standardisation or logarithmic scales

I thought your ds was in or around the previous ooc pass mark!!!

you are "save as houses ", but please move closer especially since you work in Warrington and rent in HG

[enigma]

...20 points above historical pass mark you obviously have no idea of a binomial distribution or otherwise known the bell shaped curve -distribution of standardisation or logarithmic scales...I thought your ds was in or around the previous ooc pass mark!!!...you are "save as houses ", but please move closer especially since you work in Warrington and rent in HG

Assumption 1:

...this sounds to me that if 150 of this year's 178 quota will be from in-catchment (334 and above) and if the lowest score of the remaining 28 is 385 then 385 will be set as the minimum OOC qualifying score (?)...

Assumption 2:

But based from the past 7 years the highest ever OOC qualifying score was 355. So if Alty decided or set this year's OOC qualifying score to be 357, this means they've already allocated all the remaining places to 357 and above OOCs (?). Therefore, is it sensible to believe based from the last 7 years stat that an OOC qualifying score is highly unlikely to go past 360 and a score of 360+ has a guarantee of around 99%?...

In that case Catseye;
- My assumption 1 is not true and will never happen.
- Assumption 2 is likely to happen on a basis that everything has been standardized based on binomial distribution probability believed to have been applied by AGSB over the years and that around 30% of the places will always go to the OOC.
- Therefore I can safely conclude that an OOC of 360+ has the same guarantee as that of an in-catchment with 334+!
- Phew! AGSB is now in the bag then

[Vicster]

20 points over previous OOC minimum qualifying score should be fine.
With regard to the CAF form: stockport allow six schools to be chosen. Putting the local school down as your last choice wouldn't have affected the chances of getting your first choice due to the equal preference system. The allocation works on the basis that if you meet the criteria for 1st choice school you will be offered it regardless of the other choices. If you don't meet the criteria for your first choice then your second choice becomes the first choice...and so on.
Being 20 marks over previous OOC qualifying scores is a pretty safe position to be in but using all six choices on the form would still have been a good idea just in case it is a freak year and the 0.01% chance that OOC goes to 380 or something (but that is just my paranoia speaking).

[TIDDLYMUM]

Is it six schools? I don't recall how many we had, but it was a long time ago. Well thats fine then. We put the two grammars that my son sat and passed ( didn't bother with any more as we were lucky to have an excellent comp as back up anyway), then a comp option. As you say the system works on blind preference and you will be offered the highest one which can accomodate you.

Catseye - I am sure the post is not 'having a laugh' and like most of us mere parents on here have no knowledge of 'distribution' 'bell curves' and whatever else. Or particularly feel the need to understand.

Enigma- I know what you mean. I wouldn't move from where we live either, we love it. My son has probably been late a handful of times in 5 years, due to buses/traffic- not through oversleeping. He copes well with his journey and the early starts will set him up for his working life. Its hard to believe that they won't be at school forever- but I am now look at sixth form, hoepfully he will learn to drive and get himself there.

[enigma]

20 points over previous OOC minimum qualifying score should be fine.

If my assumption 1 was true which I previously believed, then 20 points over previous OOC minimum qualifying score is not really safe/enough, this caused me to worry especially that I've not heard of any OOC scores in this forum lower than my DS yet. But it seems the distribution doesn't work that way so yeah, it is now fine - thanks to all of you, but still finger-crossing 'till march

Tiddlymum - yeah my mistake of not including good local comps and filling out all the schools in the CAF, this now adds to my worry there are loads of good comps here in Stockport speciallly that we are Catholic and my DS' primary is a feeder for 2 best Catholic high schools in town... but my focus was in Trafford grammar schools that time and I really didn't care of anything else

[TIDDLYMUM]

Did you get six choices as Vicster says then? If so did you fill them all in and add a comp below your grammar choices?

But to be honest it's pretty academic as I think that score will get you a place at AGSB

It's very important that people understand how the preference works, it seems to trip people up every year. Basically you put the schools in the order you want them, then you are offered your highest preference that can accommodate you.

[enigma]

Did you get six choices as Vicster says then? If so did you fill them all in and add a comp below your grammar choices?

Yes, I got 6 choices but I've only put in three (3) schools - just the grammars and left the other 3 blank. I know I shouldn't have left it blank but I was really (bizarrely) scared thinking that they may bypass the trafford grammars which are very far away and will give me the comps instead which is just 'round the corner (for child safety and ease, you know what I mean) ... I know we parents are more brutal than the council sometimes sending our kids to a more academic school but faraway places adding more hardships to our kids ... nywy yeah I didn't put any comps at all so it will be a point blank in favour to any of the grammars (IMO) but failed to think of the worst case scenario.

But to be honest it's pretty academic as I think that score will get you a place at AGSB

THANK YOU!