Hi to all,
Giulio have a look @ this and tell me what you think? You can make corrections if you wish.
I have spent few hours correlating this data from this web site and literature from the open evenings. To make the data accurate I have used Tiffin school final cut-off for last 3 years and Nonsuch last year results.
We know Tiffin offer 120 places and non such offer 80 places for ooc candidates.
Tiffin 2008, 987 girls sat the test. Initial cut-off 231which is on the 85.5 percentile
987*14.5/100 = 143 in rank, which means 23 girls, must have had other preferences and Tiffin was not their first choice. This is a percentage of 19% not choosing Tiffin.
Tiffin 2009 , 1002 girls sat test. Initial cut-off 233, which means they have offered to first 13.5%
1002*13.5/100 = 135 .2, 15 girls did not have Tiffin as first choice.
You can see, as the credit crunch started to bite the rank order is getting smaller as only 12.5% had other schools as first preference.
Tiffin 2010, 1170 girls sat the test. Initial offer 237, which means they offered to the 89.5 percentile. Your DD had to be in the top 10.5% to get a place on initial offers.
1170*10.5/100 =123 , 3 girls did not have Tiffin as first choice. Which explains why the Tiffin mark was high last year as less people went to private hence only 2.5% who sat test not choosing Tiffin.
Non such 2010 admission, 1288 sat test to be in top 80 you had to be in the top 6.21% Which is on the 93.7-percentile approx.
1288*6.21/100=80This equates to a standardised score of 245, this would have been the top 80 cut-off mark before the national offer day on 1st of March.
The actual Final cut off for top 80 was 237 which lies on the 89.5 percentile this equates to a rank order of 134.
1288*10.5/100= 135, this means 55 girls in the top 80 must had other first choices or only used the test as a mock test for other schools like Tiffin, Kendrick and Langley.
With all this information we could estimate what will be the cut-off mark for top 80 for 2011 as follows,
1390 sat test top 80 must be on the 94.2 percentile. Your DD must be in the top 5.8% 80/1390*100= 5.8 approx
Which equates to a standardised score of 248.
Lets assume 69% of top 80 girls decide to go somewhere else. 80+35= give a total of 135. so if you are on this rank there might be a good chance of ooc place. Rank 135 equates to 135/1390 =9.7 %. DD has to be on the 90.3 percentile this equates to a standardised score of 238.
Due to the high number taking the test and applying the data from Tiffin and nonesuch results from last year I assume the initial ooc cut off this year will be 238 give and take one mark. Of course these only calculations using assumptions to predict future cut-off scores. The big variable is the number of girls in the top 80 that decide to go somewhere else.
Last edited by stressedparent on Sat Oct 16, 2010 10:01 pm, edited 9 times in total.