Do you think there maybe a shift in these percentages this year. The highest 1st round score I'm aware of is 257 so far. Last year there was definitely 1 girl getting 280!
OK... so i've read last year's thread.. Firstly it is highly likely someone scored 280; that's how the normalisation works (and it's quite likely that the super genius top scorer was good at both VR and NVR).
My understanding is that the normalised first round scores are in a large way irrelevant to the second round and that there is insufficient information in the public domain to calculate the contribution of the first round to the final score unless you are at the very top or very bottom of the range... i.e. A Stage 1 score of 219 is likely to give a contribution of zero for VR/NVR; a score of 280 in the first round gives a score of 30.
On the Stage 2 test day there are three tests: Maths, English Reading & English Writing
In each category the highest raw mark and lowest raw mark are calculated and used to provide a linear scale from 0 to 100%. At the top of the scale you obtain a contribution of 30, 20, 20 respectively. So the highest scorer in all subjects, who entered stage 2 with 280, will score 100; the lowest scorer in all subjects, who entered with a score of 219, will score zero.
So for example... let's say the Maths had 50 questions. The lowest attained score was 40 questions correct and the highest scorer got all 50 questions correct. If you got 40 questions right (a great achievement) you would still obtain a zero contribution from Maths. If you scored 45 questions right you would get a contribution of 15. Likewise for the other subjects. (Note that the distributions of candidates scores is unlikely to be uniform but the scores are calculated in a linear fashion; true geniuses will pull up the top of the range but the bottom of the range will be a high raw score since only good candidates make it to Stage 2 anyway).
Last year the qualifying score was just less than 50.
It is therefore totally possible to enter Stage 2 with 280 and fail to obtain the qualifying score and likewise a stellar performance in the three topics in Stage 2 can easily yield a qualifying score of 50 even if you had a Stage 1 score of 219.
Looks like it is a difficult Stage to pass... you need to be good at ALL THREE topics to get the qualifying score. And good in the relative sense not absolute sense.