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 Post subject: Credit crunch
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:38 pm 
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Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2009 9:34 am
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Location: S East
Ok, cue soft calming music, change of scenery .....


Has anyone seen any evidence of the credit crunch affecting numbers for Independent schools in September 2009?

There have been newspaper reports of increases in applications in some North London schools.
Do you know of schools affected?

Is this something that you see other parents cutting back on?

Answers on a postcard......

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:42 pm 
I don't have any figures but I am feeling really nervy about the whole situation and wished that I'd sat DS for GS last year. I may not have taken up the place but at least I would have had an option. I'm definitely sitting him this year! So, I think it won't have much of an effect in 2009 but may well have for 2010.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 6:02 pm 
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The applications to my dd's indie (which she MAY go to in Sept) were up by 30% for 2009 entry.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 6:34 pm 
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Snowdrops wrote:
The applications to my dd's indie (which she MAY go to in Sept) were up by 30% for 2009 entry.


Wow :shock:

Any explanation that you are aware of? :?

Would you describe this as a usually over-subscribed school?

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 9:13 pm 
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The only explanation I can come up with (and I admit I haven't researched it 'cos I ain't that bovvered abaht it) is the local failing school to which my dd has been allocated and everyone trying to avoid it. Of course they could be using it as a fall back position like us I suppose! It could also be just a general uptake from parents overseas who do like the school and its reputation.

From what I understand the school is always well subscribed to - certainly I know of at least one girl who applied mid-way through last year and there was no space for her, so it was arranged she would be accepted into the year below, which worked out well because she had just come across from America and wasn't fully up to speed with the English curriculum.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 9:21 pm 
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Location: Barnet, Herts
Applications for my DS's school were also up but I don't know the percentages.
Seems weird to me! :shock:


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:12 pm 
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I dont think percentage of applications signifies much - you're not committing to anything there. It's percentage of offers accepted that counts and, even more, numbers of vacancies left at the end of the process - and I don't think you'll find any numbers for either of those. But the problems will be worst at the lower end of the food chain, the more respected schools will generally have a better chance of keeping the seats filled.

Mike


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:57 am 
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I wondered if some parents have decided to go for independent "back up" option (and taking the exam but not necessarily taking the place) this year over comcerns re increased numbers taking GS exams and the "normal" admitting distances being reduced as a result?

for example - anecdotally there are a lot more girls who have passed Skipton Girls this year than in previous years usually they have managed to offer places to if not all then very nearly all, this year there are many who haven't got places - particulalry in Ilkley where the only succesful entrants seem to be those with a sister at the school. Normally they would expect to get in from there -


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:35 am 
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Hermanmunster
If one follows through what is likely to happen in the circumstances you describe:
- some children whose parents would have preferred Indie will go to GS. These presumably will be more academically able (if they displace others).
- some children whose parents would have preferred GS will miss out on GS, but have applied to Indies as a back-up. These presumably will be less academically able (comparatively only of course).

I would read the consequences of that scenario as:

1. Both GSs and Indies will see a rise in applicants.
2. GSs will have a marginally improved academic intake. You can see this in the higher cutoff scores in Kent (for example) this year despite the exam haven been taken earlier (DCs were younger). I am not familiar with scores elsewhere - it would be interesting to compare with earlier years.
3. Indies will see a marginal slip in their academic intake. Also some of the parents will eventually conclude that they cannot or will not afford the fees, or that the bursarial support is insufficient. This is Mike1880s point: it's not who registers, it's who turns up. Whether this matters to the school depends on their normal level of demand. Some will suffer.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:55 am 
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:wink: ...Different in different areas... academic intake will stay the same here - the qualification level in the area is set by the local catchment area kids then the rest are offered on distance - you can have the highest score but be too far away - makes no diff (Snowdrops has this problem in Ripon.. she is too far from RGS). They don't drop the qualifying level they just start the year with fewer kids if there aren't enough qualifying DS's year was 7 down initially and these were filled over the next few years by people moving into the area.
The extra girls from Ilkley may well go to the local comprehensive despite having taken exams - I don't think the parents had any real intention of paying fees at senior level....


I deffo agree re the point about it is who ie how many turn up that matters - some will definitely suffer

FirstTimeBuyer wrote:
Hermanmunster
If one follows through what is likely to happen in the circumstances you describe:
- some children whose parents would have preferred Indie will go to GS. These presumably will be more academically able (if they displace others).
- some children whose parents would have preferred GS will miss out on GS, but have applied to Indies as a back-up. These presumably will be less academically able (comparatively only of course).

I would read the consequences of that scenario as:

1. Both GSs and Indies will see a rise in applicants.
2. GSs will have a marginally improved academic intake. You can see this in the higher cutoff scores in Kent (for example) this year despite the exam haven been taken earlier (DCs were younger). I am not familiar with scores elsewhere - it would be interesting to compare with earlier years.
3. Indies will see a marginal slip in their academic intake. Also some of the parents will eventually conclude that they cannot or will not afford the fees, or that the bursarial support is insufficient. This is Mike1880s point: it's not who registers, it's who turns up. Whether this matters to the school depends on their normal level of demand. Some will suffer.


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