Credit crunch

lion63 · Post by **lion63** » Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:02 pm

FirstTimeBuyer wrote:Agree no obvious trend in that Barnet school. However the numbers for entire county of Kent were up some 10% or so, well outside normal fluctuations. Also I seem to recall that an early post on this thread said demand had pushed up cutoff scores in Birmingham.
When was the last date for registration for QEBB

I have noted those too.

Registration deadline was 24th October 2008 for QEBB.

Open Days for Haberdashers (Elstree) was on 11th October 2008, Merchant Taylors on 27th September 2008 with most independent schools holding their Open Days in late October.

Exams are in the first week of January 2009. It is possible there is a 2 month window for more people to apply to independent schools but it is more likely registration and applications to write the independent exams would have been sent late October 2008 too.

FirstTimeBuyer · Post by **FirstTimeBuyer** » Tue Apr 21, 2009 2:01 pm

lion63
The proverbial was well 'n truly hitting the fan by late October, so the lack of obvious increased applications is strange.
Possibly some entirely local factor.

lion63 · Post by **lion63** » Tue Apr 21, 2009 2:20 pm

The proverbial was well 'n truly hitting the fan by late October,

Yes, it was. Many had assumed there will be an increase but possibly, it has always been the case, year in year out , that applications to grammars are in tandem with applications for independents.

Now it is just a case of which schools, grammar or independent, more of the candidates will opt for in the current climate. The waiting list movement will probably give a good indication of how the crunch is affecting the independents locally if there is noticeably less movement than last year.

FirstTimeBuyer · Post by **FirstTimeBuyer** » Sat Apr 25, 2009 9:18 am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/ed ... ssion.html

Appears that schools are encountering financial distress amongst parents (not exactly news). The good news is that many are introducing arrangements to ameliorate difficult financial situations. Furthermore about half of Indies are planning no fee increase.

This would suggest that anyone experiencing difficuly with fees should see if a percentage of fees can be waived. My feeling is that earlier requests will be treated more favourably, as eventually Heads will be contrained by the reality of their own finances.

FirstTimeBuyer · Post by **FirstTimeBuyer** » Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:05 am

http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/ ... ticle.html

Cheltenham College (coed, mainly boarding) letting some teachers and support staff go.
They say student numbers have held up. Therefore, either:
(a) they are expecting a drop for next September, and/or
(b) they are having to help some parents with fees (something of a hint to that effect in Headmaster's comments).

It will always make sense to offer a fee reduction to parents in financial difficulty. As most school costs are relatively fixed costs (teachers, buildings, light and heat), the additional costs of having an additional pupil are small (food, text books and stationery). Thus any extra revenue will be preferable to an empty place, even leaving aside the psychological effect of declining numbers.
The only exceptions to this analysis will be those schools which are materially oversubscribed, and even then only for the year arriving. For other years requests and demand for places will be ad hoc, and so again it is preferable to keep existing students in situ, especially if they are performing well.

T.i.p.s.y · Post by **T.i.p.s.y** » Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:14 am

Where do you find all this information FTB - I am impressed!

FirstTimeBuyer · Post by **FirstTimeBuyer** » Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:58 pm

T.i.p.s.y wrote:Where do you find all this information FTB - I am impressed!

google

FirstTimeBuyer · Post by **FirstTimeBuyer** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 8:39 am

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8023188.stm

So far, so good...

Numbers of children at Independent schools which are members of the ISC (most of them), have held steady, counting the same schools (it actually rose if you also count schools that joined the ISC).

mike1880 · Post by **mike1880** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:36 am

I think that's what's known as a "lagging indicator" - nothing to do with hot water pipes, rather that the statistics reflect economic conditions around Easter 2008 when the sky looked mostly clear with just a little patchy cloud around Northern Rock. It doesn't tell us anything about what's happening now.

Mike

FirstTimeBuyer · Post by **FirstTimeBuyer** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:46 am

mike1880 wrote:I think that's what's known as a "lagging indicator" - nothing to do with hot water pipes, rather that the statistics reflect economic conditions around Easter 2008 when the sky looked mostly clear with just a little patchy cloud around Northern Rock. It doesn't tell us anything about what's happening now.

Mike

No Mike, this is Easter 2009 being compared with Easter 2008.

You are right that it could be viewed as a lagging indicator however. For example, the pupils of St Mary's Hall Brighton which will close after the Summer term will be "all present and correct" in the 2009 survey. However it is clear that some of them were on bursaries that Roedean will not honour, and cannot afford full fees elsewhere, and so may not be present as part of the tally for next year's survey.