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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:43 am 
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Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:33 am
Posts: 23
Just wondering if anyone has any data on this. KS2 SATs obviously a forefront of many peoples minds today. My DD in year 6 so starting SATs today.

Just wondering how well KS2 results correlate with GCSE results?? Has anyone seen any data, or does anyone teaching have a feel for this?

Thank you.


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 Post subject: CORRELATION
PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2008 1:34 pm 
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Joined: Wed May 09, 2007 2:09 pm
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Location: Solihull, West Midlands
There is a very high correlation between KS2 scores and GCSE results, both at school level and at pupil level - in fact these are used as the basis for any calculation of "value added" and for most internal school target-setting. Somewhere I've seen a graph showing the scatter of actual results but until I can track it down I've found this old technical document from dcsf

http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/performancetable ... docD.shtml

which (if I can disentangle the details) implies that (for example) a child with 3 level 5's at KS2 would be expected to obtain the equivalent of 56 GCSE points (based only on the best 8, so this could be 8 grade A) whereas a child with 3 level 3's would be expected to achieve around 23 GCSE points (roughly 8 grade D)

I think there is more recent analysis somewhere which looks at other measures such as the probability of a child gaining the "magic" 5 A*-C grades given particular KS2 results.

Obviously a lot of other factors affect the actual result of any individual child, and trying to establish the school's contribution to the progress made above or below the "expected average" is what lies behind first simple value added and later versions such as contextual value-added


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2008 2:58 pm 
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Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:33 am
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Thanks Solimum,

I have looked through the information and it makes 'interesting' reading. I realised that KS2 was used for KS3 target and KS3 used for GCSE/KS4 targetting, but hadnt realised that the correlation between KS2 and KS4 was so high.


Thanks.


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 Post subject: correlations
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:49 pm 
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Joined: Wed May 09, 2007 2:09 pm
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Location: Solihull, West Midlands
OK - I've tracked down the document where I saw some graphs of KS2 score vs GCSEs. This one (based on 2006 GCSE results) is quite academic and has some interesting data on KS2 entry data for grammar schools (that are also specialists)

http://www.specialistschools.org.uk/upl ... 60_514.pdf

whereas the later version

http://www.specialistschools.org.uk/upl ... 40_857.pdf

is a rather more glossy document with photos of happy smiling children, but does have an interesting scattergraph on p37

Must dash now as I have to go out, but there is plenty of interest there!


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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:12 am 
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Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:33 am
Posts: 23
Great information. Thanks Soliumum.


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