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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:37 am 
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I know there isn't a typical child, or typical appeals panel, but let's say you had a child who had marginally failed the 11+ coming before a panel with the following SATS record, (and assuming convincing extenuating circumstances as well if necessary) would this show signs of 11+ ability or not:
Year 1 2c teacher assessment in all aspects of maths and English
Year 2 2a in all aspects of maths and English
Year 3 3b teacher assessment in all all aspects of maths and English
Year 4 4c teacher assessment in all aspects of maths and English
Year 5 4a teacher assessment in all aspects of maths and English
Year 6 5b teacher prediction in all aspects of maths and English

Would predicted 5bs in Year 6 be sufficient to convince a panel of 11+ ability.

The thing that puzzles me here is that:

- This child from year 2 onwards would only be following the "rule of thumb" average progression of 2 sub-levels per year.
- they have started from an expected NC level at end KS1
- they have arrived at an above expected NC level at end KS1

If they were in a primary classroom with setting of "above average" "middle" "below average" such a child could have been in the middle group from KS1 onwards.

So unless I have misunderstood, aspects of this academic history do not follow the sort of pattern that people on here are looking for to justify academic strength at appeal e.g. top sets, above average progress, level 3s at KS1 etc.

Can anyone enlighten me here?


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:47 am 
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Hi, Mystery

What an interesting question for the wee small hours. :)

I can only give you my own view.

I assume the '2 sub-levels of progression per year' is only meant to be a rough guide, although I'd be really interested to know what experienced teachers think about this.

My experience of appeals is that one very rarely got a complete SATs history for any child. The focus tended to be on year 6, with perhaps a snapshot or two from earlier on. If I wanted to know about KS1, I usually had to ask - and a lot of parents either couldn't remember, or were trying a bit too hard to come up with the 'right' answer!

Would I have accepted a 5b prediction as evidence of GS ability? I would have regarded it as a starting point.

I would have been interested in the progression from year 5 to year 6, and what it was based on (e.g. optional SATs as well as ongoing teacher assessment?), but quite often such information wasn't available.

Ideally I would have liked the evidence to be as wide-ranging as possible.
http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/11plus ... rs.php#b11

I accept that if the result were very marginal (e.g. a point), it should be easier to persuade most panels, but I suspect they'd still be looking for something more than a SATs prediction.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:13 am 
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I'm not a teacher, so maybe people that are will correct me, but my understanding is as follows:

1. The expected progression in each academic year is actually 1.5 sub-points, but this seems to get "rounded up" to 2 in discussions.

2. The average child at the end of KS1 (Year 2) would actually achieve a level 2b, not a 2a as in your example.

3. If they then achieve 1.5 sub-levels a year, they will then be on course to achieve a level 3b at the end of Y4 and a level 4b at the end of Y6 - i.e. still attaining an average level of achievement at the end of their primary school career.

Perhaps the children that achieve 2 sub-levels a year every year are the ones that are on track for a likely GS education?


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 11:11 am 
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if the child was 2b at end of year 2 then you would be expecting a 4b at least at end of year 6.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 12:10 pm 
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Thank you for answers so far.

Is Cairo right that "average progress" is 1.5 sublevels per year?

Yoyo, you put a 2b at end of Year 2, I was talking about a child with 2a at end year 2.

Etienne, would most appeals panels be hoping for higher SAT predictions at Year 6, or really do you find teacher assessments and predictions too unreliable to be bothered with?!


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 12:32 pm 
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level 3 at keystage 1 was always considered an early prediction of 11 plus possible achievement. As long as the dc proceeded along the "curve" without dips.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 12:42 pm 
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Thank you. I've also checked out the sublevel business and Cairo was right that my average progress was wrong. It's one and half sublevels per year that is "expected progress" - or one complete level per two years. So if you got a 2c at end of Year 1, you would be expected to get somewhere between a 4b and a 4a at KS2, so well short of level 5 (a five b) that is generally regarded as minimum 11+ indicator.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 1:27 pm 
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mystery wrote:
Etienne, would most appeals panels be hoping for higher SAT predictions at Year 6, or really do you find teacher assessments and predictions too unreliable to be bothered with?!

The difficulty is that panels get no feedback about the reliability of KS2 predictions.

I do think level 5 predictions are a good starting point for an appeal, but I remember Guest55 saying that only around two-thirds of children at grammar school in our area had three level 5s [science being included at that time].

I agree with what tiredmum says about level 3 at KS1, and suspect there is quite a good correlation between level 3 at KS1 and level 5 at KS2, but most panels are not routinely given reliable information about KS1 results.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 2:10 pm 
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mystery wrote:
Thank you for answers so far.

Is Cairo right that "average progress" is 1.5 sublevels per year?

Yoyo, you put a 2b at end of Year 2, I was talking about a child with 2a at end year 2.



oops, child with 2a in Y2 would be expected to be 4a by Y6


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:18 pm 
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I have always worked on the basis that 2 sub-levels a year is desirable progress. I am working 1-1 in schools with children not expected to make this rate of progress and it is felt that they ought to be. Most schools I know are aiming for this; I can't find any figures on how many children actually achieve it nationally; but it is considered an indicator of bother if children consistently do not make that progress - so much so that the Making Good Progress initiative was started on the strength of it. As SATs are such a poor tool for assessing raw ability on the part of a child, rather than a school, I doubt you can extrapolate much about GS suitability from them, and particularly not from school predictions. I have seen several children who are definitely not where a school has assessed them to be at the start of Year 6, and will not get the final SATs grades predicted for them in the externally marked papers.


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