Given the uncertainty over waiting .......
Never, ever take a decision on this basis!
does anyone know if the extenuating circumstances have ever bridged a gap this wide between the score and pass mark
To give you a rough idea, look at: http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/appeal ... aneous#e29scroll down to (f)
You'll see that at 114, the chance of a successful appeal in 2010 was roughly 14%. Those concerned are likely to have had very strong academic evidence and very persuasive extenuating circumstances.
The new review panels are said to want exceptional reasons for underperformace. Officially the only preparation required is stated to be the Bucks familiarisation & practice tests, so it's a bit questionable whether the loss of 7-10 days' preparation time would carry huge weight at either review or appeal.
wondering how much the success rate drops if the support is only at the second level?
If you're referring to a '2' recommendation, I don't think much distinction in the past has been made between a '1' and a '2' - what could be more of an issue is that these recommendations might be devalued if the particular school has 'overestimated'. In other words, if most of the children with a '2' at a primary school didn't qualify in the 11+, the '2' might start to look more like a '3' or even a '4' in reality.