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PostPosted: Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:41 pm 
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Does anybody know how many applications for South Warwickshire? Someone told me they are around 2000 this year, which is a bit shocking if it is true.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:20 pm 
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paperino wrote:
Does anybody know how many applications for South Warwickshire? Someone told me they are around 2000 this year, which is a bit shocking if it is true.


No idea, although I did hear that they were exceptionally busy.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:40 pm 
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Location: Warwickshire
Do you mean how many applied for the schools for 2013, or how many have applied to take the exam?

The applications to schools for 2013 entry figures, for all the Warwickshire Selective Schools were as follows (n.b applications were made after exam results, which explains why the figures are lower than the 2012 figures - shown in brackets - when applications had to be made before the exam results were known):

Alcester Grammar School - mixed
Admission Number 120 (90)
First preferences 203 (310)
Total preferences 432 (592)

King Edward VI School - boys
Admission Number 81 (75)
First preferences 185 (259)
Total preferences 270 (376)

Stratford Girls’ Grammar School - girls
Admission Number 112 (75)
First preferences 201 (245)
Total preferences 313 (385)

Lawrence Sheriff School - boys
Admission Number 120 (94)
First preferences 219 (284)
Total preferences 282 (370)

Rugby High School - girls
Admission Number 120 (94)
First preferences 209 (262)
Total preferences 283 (344)

Ashlawn School (Selective Stream) - mixed
Admission Number 30 (30)
First preferences 86 (107)
Total preferences 366 (475)

The numbers who actually took the exam in 2012 (for 2013 entry) can be found in the following table (the numbers don't exactly add up because of some out of area candidates, and a few who qualify for both areas).

These figures show the lowest rankings to actually get an offer on the 2013 offer day. This is useful because while the scores may vary from year to year, the rankings for places ought to be more consistent if the number of places stays the same, so it could be a useful guideline for people next year.

Code:
School                  Lowest 1st    All Children     All Boys      All Girls     All South      All East     South Boys   South Girls    East Boys     East Girls
                        March Offer   (out of 1817)  (out of 935)  (out of 882)  (out of 1029)  (out of 685)  (out of 527)  (out of 502)  (out of 353)  (out of 332)

King Edward VI Stratford     333          342nd           186th          N/A           225th          N/A           125th         N/A           N/A           N/A
Stratford Girls Grammar      321          517th           N/A            246th         340th          N/A           N/A           167th         N/A           N/A
Alcester Grammar             314          632nd           333rd          300th         411th          N/A           214th         198th         N/A           N/A
Lawrence Sheriff             309          712th           373rd          N/A           N/A            192nd         N/A           N/A           106th         N/A
Rugby High                   300          889th           N/A            426th         N/A            259th         N/A           N/A           N/A           121st
Ashlawn Selective            302          841st           445th          397th         N/A            240th         N/A           N/A           136th         105th


I've not seen any evidence that the number of exam entries is higher this year - but it is possible that with CEM exams being introduced for the first time in not too far distant Buckinghamshire, whose 11+ exam date is after the Warwickshire one, there may be more out of area candidates registering for the exam, just as a CEM practice test, but without any real intention of applying for a Warwickshire school place. So 1817 total candidates - not just South Warwickshire - last year, and around 2000 (which given the tendency to exaggerate for dramatic effect probably just means over 1900!) this year - which was a higher birth rate year too - isn't beyond the bounds of possibility.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:14 am 
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Thanks Okanagan, your table is extremely helpful.

So assuming that the figure this year are not too different from last year. About 33% of the girls in South Warwickshire were successful is getting an offer from Shottery (considering only the sub sample South Warwickshire) , and the figure is reduced to 28% if you consider the full cohort of entrants (i.e. either the full sample or the full sample of girls).


So about 1 in 3 gets an offer. Looking at the figures in this way is a bit less scary.

Do you have the figures about the distribution of results in VR NVR and Maths?


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:58 am 
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Location: Warwickshire
By definition the average score on each element should be 100. Have a look here for a description of how the scores are derived.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:05 am 
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Thanks for you reply.
Do you know the distribution of raw scores, before normalisation?
I am asking this because someone in my daughter' s school got 76% and was offer a place at KES, but I cannot figure out where , for example, 76% is in the distribution of row scores.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:14 am 
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Location: Warwickshire
Is that really 76% raw score, or are they just calculating their standardised score as a percentage of the maximum possible (which is tempting to do, but not actually valid)? You don't usually get the raw scores unless you've specifically gone back to admissions and asked for them, so I suspect it is the latter.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:52 pm 
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Maybe. I am not sure what they meant, and I cannot verify.

I was trying to understand what is the threshold in term of the proportion of correct answers.
I read somewhere in the forum that it is about 75%, but no explanation was given.

Thanks


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:58 pm 
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Location: Warwickshire
It's lower than 75%, although it varies by school obviously. Have a look here where we looked at the average raw scores from the 2012 exam, and approximately what the raw to standardised score translations would be. An overall average of 60% if all subject areas are fairly equal would probably be enough for a place at any of the South Warwickshire schools, down to about 50% at some of them. It does vary according to age though - so the same raw score might result in a higher standardised score for a younger child - and according to how tough the test proves to be, so the percentage raw score required may vary from year to year.

Also have a look at this discussion which also addresses the same misconception that standardised scores can be thought of as a percentage correct.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2013 10:05 am 
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I've just spoken to the Admissions Service and there were 2090 on time 11+ applications for the Warwickshire area (wasn't able to split).

The lady that I spoke to seemed to think that this was pretty typical and not particularly high.


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