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 Post subject: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 5:38 pm 
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Anybody want to speculate?? - I'm guessing 217 for Stratford girls and 213 for Alcester Grammar - purely based on last years ranking cutoffs of 167 for southern girls and 411 for all south respectively..


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 5:52 pm 
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228 for KES???
Based on a ranking of 125 southern boys last year, and we know that 227 is ranked 126 this year ...

JD


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 3:38 pm 
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Anyone speculating aqs for rugby?


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 4:30 pm 
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Quote:
Anyone speculating aqs for rugby?


Thinking the same thing!

I have never understood the inner / outer circle complexities or the underlying motive for setting the AQS for the inner / outer circles at any given value where children can be included / excluded from one circle at the expense of the other. This compounded by the fact that the AQS is set at a value where out of catchment children are also accepted into East Warks schools.

It is inconsistent with Southern Warks...however both East and South Warks are inconsistent with the rest of the county in that they have GS and the rest of the county doesn't!

Chat (and I think it is nothing more than that) on this forum suggests Warks may look to remove those inconsistencies in the future, and that is likely to see a blurring of the inner / outer circles. That hasn't happened yet but the changes to the priorities for allocations will probably move East Warks in that direction. I suspect the difference between the inner / outer AQS scores will be a lot closer this year, but I wouldn't want to guess what that difference will be...

(Apologies all. I have said a lot but not answered the question. Hopefully someone will come along (before March 3rd!) and answer the question...)


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 5:25 pm 
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Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:20 pm
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Location: Warwickshire
My best guesses:
King Edward VI Stratford: 226
Stratford Girls Grammar: 217
Alcester Grammar: 212
Lawrence Sheriff: 207
Rugby High: 207 (but expect them to offer down to about 200)
Ashlawn Selective: 202

The South Warwickshire region schools will probably be not dissimilar to last year, but might be supressed by a point of two due to the extra places offered this year in the Birmingham grammars which might be a higher priority for a few children.

East Warwickshire is tricky due to them setting the AWS last year above the point where all places would be filled, reversing the inner/outer order of priority this year, LSS's new pupil premium priority, and the habit of setting the LSS and RHS scores the same.


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:01 am 
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I wonder what the impact will be (if any) from people not using Warwickshire as a mock for Birmingham this year....just musing :)


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:09 am 
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It's the same situation as last year, so unlikely to have any further impact.


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:20 pm 
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Location: Warwickshire
Fatnorville wrote:
I have never understood the inner / outer circle complexities or the underlying motive for setting the AQS for the inner / outer circles at any given value where children can be included / excluded from one circle at the expense of the other.
This was dues to a schools adjudicator ruling in 2008 because schools in Daventry felt they were being disadvantaged by children from that area applying to the East Warwickshire Grammars. The dual priority area was an attempt to address those concerns. Now that the schools are academies and thus their own admissions authorities they can (and have) changed their admissions policies to effectively go back to the state before these changes. It was done rather under the radar though - it was quite a subtle change in the wording and a lot of people may not even have noticed the difference.
Fatnorville wrote:
It is inconsistent with Southern Warks...however both East and South Warks are inconsistent with the rest of the county in that they have GS and the rest of the county doesn't!
Selective education in Central Warwickshire ended in about 1977 - so it's been that way for a long time! Somebody may correct me but I think that until the Greenwich Judgement in 1989 which caused the priority circle to be expanded to the equivalent distance to the furthest point on the Country border - hence the historical reason for the 17 miles from Stratford and 10 miles from Rugby circles - the Central and North Warwickshire people didn't even have the option of applying for the remaining grammar schools. But with the advent of academies all that has been superseded and they could in theory change that if they wanted to. We could yet see this happening if as is suggested the Warwickshire schools go in with the Birmingham KE foundation and the Walsall/Wolverhampton schools to share a common test. None of those have priority areas, so the pressure might be on for Warwickshire to go in the same direction now that the legal restrictions don't prevent it.


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:55 pm 
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Do you think removing priority areas in Warwickshire grammars would make much difference. Each year out of priority children get in anyway. I would think for many, transport links would be the deciding factor, if there are no transport links or it is very complicated people would not bother.


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions for AQS?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:59 pm 
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Location: Warwickshire
It seems to be happening anyway last year with the East Warwickshire schools (but most of those in the stats are probably in the priority areas, but outside of Warwickshire - there are parts of Northants, Coventry, Worcestershire, Solihull, South Birmingham etc this applies to). But who knows what would happen if it was generally known that that was the case. You only have to read this forum to see that there are a number of people who are prepared to take lots of exams and then just apply to wherever they think they can get a place, and think about moving afterwards. Being able to get a place and then consider moving might just encourage more of that.


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