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 Post subject: AGS likelyhood
PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:11 am 
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Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:07 am
Posts: 3
Hi,

My lad scored TSS 216 and would like to attend AGS (Qualifying score 214).

We are well inside the southern circle, any ideas on how likely he can secure a spot will be?

Thanks


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 Post subject: Re: AGS likelyhood
PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:37 am 
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Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 4:55 pm
Posts: 104
AQS was 214 last year, its unlikely to be exactly the same this year as its calculated each year to 'capture' the required number of top scorers.

However I understand that a slightly larger number sat the Warwickshire exam so the AQS should be higher this year. I think most other factors are the same so the rise in AQS may only be modest so at a guess putting it somewhere in the 214 to 220 range.

The AQS is only the 'guaranteed a place' level. My DS got an offer in the first round with a score just below AQS and even then its not game over as people take up other offers or go private people on the waiting list below get places too.

I think at 216 its difficult to say but I think your in with a very good chance, say the AQS rises to 217 you may still get an offer straight away depending on how many others are on 216 and their individual scores. - People on the AQS or above are sure of a place, doesn't mean offers don't go below it too.

It doesn't matter where in the circle you are, your either in or out.

What is vital is that you put AGS as your first choice. It wouldn't do any harm to consider the options of other schools meanwhile, we know of people who have been borderline here that have gone all the way even getting a place at AGS after their child has started at another school and being a few points below AQS.

I hope the AQS is kind to you, good luck.


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 Post subject: Re: AGS likelyhood
PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:17 am 
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Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:47 pm
Posts: 114
Yes you should be in with a good chance and should absolutely put it as your first choice. The marks may be slightly up on last year, but the ranking is probably more important so if you want to post that it would be a more accurate indicator.
Last year my DD got a score that would have got her an offer on day 1 the previous year, but from her ranking I could tell it was dodgy and we were on the waiting list until she got an offer in July!
Either way you will be there or thereabouts
The distance from school is the determining factor when scores are the same.
Well done to your DS!!


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 Post subject: Re: AGS likelyhood
PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:32 am 
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Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:59 pm
Posts: 2826
Please don't talk about the AQS guaranteeing people places - it doesn't!

Having a very good rank is the only "guarantee". The AQS is carefully set by the schools at around their PAN so they hope that people who get in to the school are all above the AQS but, it is certainly not a guarantee of a place. And neither does it mean that if you are one or two points below that you will get in - the AQS score has been the last score to be offered in the past, in some schools.

Use your rank to compare against previous years, not scores - the scores go up and down dependent on the cohort, ranks are exactly that, a rank in the cohort that you are competing against.

But as sherlock1 says - if you are close to the rank that equates with the PAN (either above or below it) AND it is your favoured school, put it first on the CAF. List in your TRUE order of preference. Do not try and second guess the choices other people will make - for example some people with a high ranking will be absolutely against single sex schools and would not consider KES or Shottery (which traditionally require a higher score to get in) so will put AGS first, thereby impacting in a positive way on the lowest score required for KES/Shottery - or vice versa.


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 Post subject: Re: AGS likelyhood
PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:54 am 
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Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 4:55 pm
Posts: 104
I don't agree rank is so useful in my mind, you cannot be sure what the people ahead of you will do, as to which schools they will put down, in what order or if they even take up places if offered. Its a rank in the Warwickshire 11+ not for a particular school. That said I do accept there is a consistent trend to it.

If you put a school first on your list and you make the AQS you get a letter offering you a place.

At AGS last year we got a first round offer on 1 below AQS along with several others at the same score, obviously a safety margin built in. The AQS should be carefully set so all at or above are guaranteed a place, its only below in doubt.


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 Post subject: Re: AGS likelyhood
PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:37 am 
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Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:59 pm
Posts: 2826
Sorry Sillygoose but I disagree with you!

No - not a built in safety margin in the AQS, but due to people above you choosing to go elsewhere. And, as you say, you cannot be sure of what people ahead of you are going to do - this applies to both rank and score, so I am not really sure why you think score is a better measure, when it does not relate across various years. Rank does. And, as AQS's etc have not been finalised as yet, previous year's rankings are the only thing current years applicants have to go on. A person who is ranked 10th last year can be compared with a person that ranks 10th this year - they are in the same position! However, their scores may vary massively - the year before last, due to the weighting, the scores were in the 300s - the last two years they have been in the 200s - but the rankings remain comparable!

Scores fluctuate widely depending on the difficulty of the exam and, due to standardisation, how many people took the exam. The rank tells you exactly what position your child is in. As you know how many places are available across the county and in various schools in particular, you can have a pretty good guess as to how likely you are to get a place in a particular school.

The reality is, the score/rank letter received makes it very clear that, regardless of how well your child has done, there is no guarantee of a place in a Grammar School. Although it is "likely" that anyone scoring the AQS or above, who has listed the GS on their CAF, and lives in the appropriate area will get offered a place in March, it is misleading to say that they are "guaranteed a place".


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 Post subject: Re: AGS likelyhood
PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:19 am 
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Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:30 am
Posts: 2248
Surely the simplest thing is to say that if you are close to last years AQS and/or close to the limit of ranking that got in, you absolutely have hope but you will be in a completely grey area until t least 15th march next year! However 'sure' or otherwise, things can change dependant on what people above you do,an d if you are so close to the limits on either score or rank then it only takes a change to one person above yous choice to make a big difference to your child's school place. And because the number into private or who turn down places is an average over a large cohort, you cannot possibly surmise on an individual level what will happen. Not a comfortable place to be in, but a hopeful one just the same!


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