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 Post subject: Rank
PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:22 pm 
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Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:08 pm
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Hi
Please can anyone help? A score of 209 is just outside last years 2014 AQS for Alcester at 210 making me believe it is worth applying to get on the waiting list for Sept 2015. However the rank for this is 603 / 1229 all children in south and 309 / 595 boys which seems too low to even consider applying. I feel the 2 results contradict each other as 603 is way off where 209 is near....unless this is this an indication that the AQS for Alcester will probably be a very high one this year? In addition, will the extra 30 places have an impact on keeping AGS within reaching distance of 209 even with this rank. Parents, my child's friends and teachers seem to be saying we have a good chance when I genuinely don't think we do and I want to manage our expectations and prepare alternatives. Please can you help clarify our situation as I feel like I am on a roller-coaster. Thank you
Confused Mum


Last edited by Very Confused on Wed Oct 21, 2015 2:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:04 pm 
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Confused Mum, pls have a look at topic 'Ags aqs and ranking',
you might find your answer there.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:10 pm 
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Thanks
They seem to think the AQS will be higher too :(
Thanks for replying :>


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:22 pm 
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Hi Confused mum,

The bottom line is - we don't know. I think the AQS will be higher this year due to all the DC's bunched around similar scores and therefore falling lower in the rankings. Having said that - if they set the AQS at a level comparable with the PAN, the AQS will have jumped astronomically from previous years to this year. My gut feeling is they do allow for movement (DC's choosing B'ham GS, private schools) etc when setting the AQS, but what this will be is a complete mystery, and we won't know till March.

As I-am says, have a look at 'Ags aqs and ranking' as this is discussed in a fair bit of detail, although it is all speculation.

It might be worthwhile speaking to admissions at WCC or AGS themselves regarding how they arrive at the AQS. Obviously, they will not tell you what the AQS will be (they haven't decided yet and won't until all the CAF's are submitted at the end of this month), but they might indicate how much movement they allow for and give you a better idea. I only suggest this, as I have seen on the B'ham forum that someone rang the FOR there about AQS for some of the B'ham GS's, and they confirmed that the AQS were not likely to increase too much this year. I'm amazed they disclosed this much, and if true it's encouraging - whether WCC would do the same, I've no idea, but it might be worthwhile you asking - you have nothing to lose.

Finally whatever you do, make sure you still put AGS as your preferred school!!

Hope that helps,


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:46 pm 
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Thanks
Will do
:>


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:56 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:38 am
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Location: West Midlands / warks border
I posted the following on 17Th September



I contacted WCC for an updated list of the lowest scores offered for September 2015 and they were as follows:-

KES - 227
SGGS - 212
AGS - 207

Last year AGS advertised PAN was 120, however it was agreed to offer over PAN to 150 places.

This year the official PAN is 150.

Your score of 209 is a possible.

You must put this as your first preference because if you don't get offered straight away you will be on the waiting list and you just never know.

Based on this years scores you would get a place.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:04 pm 
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Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:59 pm
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Very Confused wrote:
Hi
Please can anyone help? A score of 209 is just outside last years 2014 AQS for Alcester at 210 making me believe it is worth applying to get on the waiting list for Sept 2015. However the rank for this is 603 / 1229 all children in south and 309 / 595 boys which seems too low to even consider applying. I feel the 2 results contradict each other as 603 is way off where 209 is near....unless this is this an indication that the AQS for Alcester will probably be a very high one this year? In addition, will the extra 30 places have an impact on keeping AGS within reaching distance of 209 even with this rank. Parents, my child's friends and teachers seem to be saying we have a good chance when I genuinely don't think we do and I want to manage our expectations and prepare alternatives. Please can you help clarify our situation as I feel like I am on a roller-coaster. Thank you
Confused Mum


Alcester Grammar School took the 30 "extra" places last year (a year earlier than advertised) so the PAN for last year is the same as it is for this year - 150.

The key thing to focus on is the rank scores - this year scores appear to be really bunched meaning that the same score from last year would this year give you a much lower rank score. There are around 150 ish places for boys in the south, so, effectively, you are relying on the same number again to choose alternative schools/areas to move your son up the rankings. At the same time, the AQS, which is set by a panel of heads, may have to set higher than last year, as the AQS needs to be able to accommodate everybody who scores higher than it (so where there is lots of children ranked on the same score, they would ideally all get a place). So the bunched scoring not only puts you at a lower ranking than last year but it also may force the AQS up to find the point where they can comfortable accommodate everyone. There is also some uncertainty over how many PP places will be taken in the initial round of offers.

This all looks very doom and gloom - it isn't meant to be, just a realistic assessment as it looks to me like the teachers/parents/friends you refer to are focussing on the score, as compared to last year, rather than the rank which is the better comparison tool.

However, if AGS is your preference and you are in Warwickshire, then you have lots of choice spaces on the CAF so by all means put it at your first choice. Make sure you big up your alternative to your child - you may not get AGS in the first round - you may get a place off the waiting list - you may not. But you have nothing to lose putting it as your first option.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:06 pm 
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Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 4:55 pm
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kenyancowgirl wrote:
Very Confused wrote:
Hi
Please can anyone help? A score of 209 is just outside last years 2014 AQS for Alcester at 210 making me believe it is worth applying to get on the waiting list for Sept 2015. However the rank for this is 603 / 1229 all children in south and 309 / 595 boys which seems too low to even consider applying. I feel the 2 results contradict each other as 603 is way off where 209 is near....unless this is this an indication that the AQS for Alcester will probably be a very high one this year? In addition, will the extra 30 places have an impact on keeping AGS within reaching distance of 209 even with this rank. Parents, my child's friends and teachers seem to be saying we have a good chance when I genuinely don't think we do and I want to manage our expectations and prepare alternatives. Please can you help clarify our situation as I feel like I am on a roller-coaster. Thank you
Confused Mum


Alcester Grammar School took the 30 "extra" places last year (a year earlier than advertised) so the PAN for last year is the same as it is for this year - 150.

The key thing to focus on is the rank scores - this year scores appear to be really bunched meaning that the same score from last year would this year give you a much lower rank score. There are around 150 ish places for boys in the south, so, effectively, you are relying on the same number again to choose alternative schools/areas to move your son up the rankings. At the same time, the AQS, which is set by a panel of heads, may have to set higher than last year, as the AQS needs to be able to accommodate everybody who scores higher than it (so where there is lots of children ranked on the same score, they would ideally all get a place). So the bunched scoring not only puts you at a lower ranking than last year but it also may force the AQS up to find the point where they can comfortable accommodate everyone. There is also some uncertainty over how many PP places will be taken in the initial round of offers.

This all looks very doom and gloom - it isn't meant to be, just a realistic assessment as it looks to me like the teachers/parents/friends you refer to are focussing on the score, as compared to last year, rather than the rank which is the better comparison tool.

However, if AGS is your preference and you are in Warwickshire, then you have lots of choice spaces on the CAF so by all means put it at your first choice. Make sure you big up your alternative to your child - you may not get AGS in the first round - you may get a place off the waiting list - you may not. But you have nothing to lose putting it as your first option.


I generally agree (your better at figuring this stuff than me!), but more so the case for previous years.

I think rank is much more an unpredictable factor this time as scores seem to be earning far lower ranks than last year even with the extra 100 children (South Circle) who took the test (it was only 30 more the year before).

That can only be due to either higher general scoring so bunching up the mid range - in which case this years tutors should be getting bonus payments!

Or possibly there are a substantial number of Birmingham scores padding out the distribution, if these parents don't put AGS 1st (as they may well not) will be filtered out for the purpose of the AGS AQS calculation, effectively moving those left up the rankings... well here's hoping anyway!

I saw somewhere else that someone reckoned the number of actual Warwickshire entrants this year was something like 2200 but I have not found last years number yet for comparison.

The results we were sent were for 2847 children so who are the other 600?

And why do they keep messing with the system and making it more complicated!


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:44 pm 
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Honestly...the rank is not unpredictable...!! I don't know how else to explain it!!

Assume there are 100 seats in a school. The Council needs that 100 seats filled. It doesn't matter how many people sit the test, the council still needs those 100 seats filled. In my example, there are 150 people sitting the test and it is out of 200. They start with rank 1 and go on until the 100th seat is filled. It doesn't matter whether the last person in gets 180 on the test or 60 on the test...the 100th seat (the 100th rank) needs to be filled.

The rank is the only constant year on year (unless PAN changes) It doesn't matter if the test is super easy and high scores are achieved...the children are still ranked in score order.....they still need 100 children....

The scores earning far lower ranks this year is true - this does appear to bunch up the scores more...The only people who will appear in the rankings are those who are in the South Circle priority area - these will include Birmingham (but it always did!!) - there may be a slight increase of Birmingham candidates who are in the South area who just opted to share, because they could, and, yes, this could affect the rankings positively - or not - they may decide that actually this is where they want to go!

Once you have a rank that takes you outside of the total PAN available, then it is very much dependent on other people's choices - that is all we can say. We can make assumptions about people choosing alternatives (based on historical evidence), but that is all it can be.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 6:40 pm 
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Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:08 pm
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Hi
Thank you very much for your replies. It will be a tough wait and we are looking at possible alternatives. I have explained to my DS that it is an unlikely option and it broke his heart- however if a miracle happens he will be blown away. Looking at potential alternatives now - Thank you for your replies


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