2016 Results / 2017 Entry: Warwickshire

[ssb321]

We are in priority circle 1 (Eastern Warwickshire), around 2 miles from the water tower.

The first 55 places are offered to priority circle 1 (Eastern Warwickshire), the second 55 places are offered to priority circle 2 (10 mile radius of water tower) which includes priority circle 1 and some parts of Northamptonshire and Leicestershire. If we are in Eastern Warwickshire priority circle 1 we are also in priority circle 2 I believe.

What are the realistic chances of him getting into LSS or Ashlawn with a score of 207 and ranked 115th out of 368 boys in Easter Grammar Circle.
LSS has a PAN of 120, and Ashlawn has a PAN of 36.

I suppose not all of the 114 boys who scored higher than him will opt for LSS or Ashlawn, and may be further in terms of distance in the priority area.

[ssb321]

My DS scored 207.
All Children - Ranked 1179 out of 2694 - same ranking (42)
All Boys - Ranked 613 out of 1367 - same ranking (21)
Boys living in Easter Grammar Circle - 115 out of 368 - same ranking (3)
All children living in Eastern Grammar Circle - 219 out of 721 - same ranking (8)

Based on last year's numbers it looks like he is borderline on getting into LSS, and possibly into Ashlawn. I'm completely confused as to which school he is likely to get into.

We live about 2 miles from the water tower and live in Bilton catchment, but don't want to choose Bilton school as it is in special measures.
What are the realistic chances of him getting into LSS or Ashlawn with a score of 207?

[kenyancowgirl]

I'm not an expert on the Eastern Area but whilst Ashlawn Selective may be tough, I would think you would get a place at LSS with that score/rank and living where you do.

If Ashlawn Selective is your preference, put it first and LSS second. If you don't get Ashlawn Selective, then LSS will effectively become your first choice and you should get offered that (and remain on AS waiting list). Make sure you put alternatives that you are happy with below LSS, just in case, including a local catchment comprehensive.

[ssb321]

I'm not an expert on the Eastern Area but whilst Ashlawn Selective may be tough, I would think you would get a place at LSS with that score/rank and living where you do.

If Ashlawn Selective is your preference, put it first and LSS second. If you don't get Ashlawn Selective, then LSS will effectively become your first choice and you should get offered that (and remain on AS waiting list). Make sure you put alternatives that you are happy with below LSS, just in case, including a local catchment comprehensive.

Thanks Kenyancowgirl. LSS is our first choice (fingers crossed), and Ashlawn selective second choice. We do have some other local schools in our choices below on the CAF.

Your comment on "whilst Ashlawn Selective may be tough, I would think you would get a place at LSS with that score/rank and living where you do" has filled me with some hope .

[JamesDean]

James Dean...number crunching again - looks like a bit of bunching at the top end scores (more than usual) as well as the bunching around the 220s...

It is interesting. And looking at the higher scores that Cariad has posted and thinking of when DS sat 3 years ago, he scored higher but ranked lower meaning far fewer high scoring southern boys this year ...

JD

[ginx]

James Dean

Not a question regarding my ds, but what do you think the aqs will be for LSS , higher or lower than last year?

I know you're following the statistics.

[JamesDean]

I'm afraid the East is a mystery to me, Ginx! There are far more knowledgeable forum members than me who might like to have a punt ... Can't believe no-one is speculating yet

JD

[kenyancowgirl]

Hmm...JD not sure I have seen enough results to draw any great conclusions except for the bunching comment - I get the impression that the scores are bunched around the mid 200s, a bit like last year.

ssb321, as I said, I am no expert on the East but my comments are based on the fact that you have reported your son's rank as 115 out of Eastern boys, with the PAN for LSS as 120 (and I believe LSS is only boys?) Therefore, he is under PAN...in other words, if every boy ranked higher than him put LSS first, there would still be space for him. Not every boy will want LSS, some will go for Ashlawn and some will opt for other Bham GS or poss Southern, or private. At the same time you may have some late aplicants etc, but I would be hopeful.

Ginx, like JD, I haven't a clue...I'm not sure there have been enough confirmed results reported to enable anyone to make any best guesses - this goes for Southern as well.

[ssb321]

ssb321, as I said, I am no expert on the East but my comments are based on the fact that you have reported your son's rank as 115 out of Eastern boys, with the PAN for LSS as 120 (and I believe LSS is only boys?) Therefore, he is under PAN...in other words, if every boy ranked higher than him put LSS first, there would still be space for him. Not every boy will want LSS, some will go for Ashlawn and some will opt for other Bham GS or poss Southern, or private. At the same time you may have some late aplicants etc, but I would be hopeful.

Hi Yes, it is a boys school. However 55 places of 120 are offered to people in the priority circle area 1. 55 are offered to priority outer circle 2 (which includes area 1). Then 10 are reserved for children who receive free school meals.

So if not every boy above him chooses LSS as their first choice, and some of them are late applicants, fingers crossed he should be in with a chance.

[kenyancowgirl]

What you are crossing your fingers for are boys who are ranked higher choosing alternatives - late applicants that rank higher than your son, might get offered if the AQS for LSS is set higher than your son has scored (we don't know what it will be - I think it was 207 last year for in area boys). Make sure you have a decent alternative listed on your CAF (ie a catchment comprehensive)