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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:29 am 
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Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:20 pm
Posts: 1706
Location: Warwickshire
Almost half of school districts in England will have more primary pupils than places within two years, analysis by local authority leaders suggests.

Not a surprise surely - they've known about birth rates rising for a while (the latest secondary transfer cohort is the low point before the number of births started going up), and the extra places required as a result of immigration wouldn't have been hard to forsee.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:39 am 
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Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:51 am
Posts: 8113
indeed - not rocket science and there are plenty of demographers employed by gov.uk ...

2012 729,674
2011 723,913
2010 723,165
2009 706,248
2008 708,711
2007 690,013
2006 669,601
2005 645,835
2004 639,721
2003 621,469
2002 596,122
2001 594,634
2000 604,441
1999 621,872


the 594k of 2001 increases to 723k in 2011 - a 21% increase and these are just births, does not allow for migration


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 10:30 am 
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Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:01 pm
Posts: 6693
Location: Herts
Indeed! People who are prepared to move countries for a better life are likely to be very focused on making sure their childen have the best possible opportunities in education. It will be interesting to look at application levels this year. DG


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 12:09 pm 
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Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:51 am
Posts: 8113
the applications to primary school should go up about 2-3% this year, the percentage increase year on year varies with the highest being 2003 births (4.25%) and lowest being a drop in 2009 of 0.35%.

the mid year population forecast have always been of huge interest to planners, so it doesn't come as a surprise - the more unpredictable element is migration as there tends to be less notice of the requirement of a primary or senior school place.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 1:27 pm 
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Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 1:05 pm
Posts: 4024
Location: Reading
Old news here in Reading, where most primary schools are taking in their second bulge class in as many years and allowing for a permanent expansion. Just over the border in Wokingham 2 or 3 new primary schools have opened.

Reading need something like the equivalent of two new secondary schools in a few short years, bearing in mind something like 40% of Reading secondary children are educated outside Reading, that's saying something.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:11 pm 
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Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:45 am
Posts: 183
Location: Kingston upon Thames
Old news here in SW London

The first bulge classes were in 2007 when Kingston Borough added about 7 classes to the 52.5 normal ones, They have opened one extra primary (2 classes), expanded about 8 others and continue to run about 8-10 bulge classes per year to give a total of about 66-70 classes. Virtually all primaries here have 1 - 3 demountable classrooms (but only about 4 have been demounted to date when permanent buildings opened), demountables is Kingston's posh term for what were called huts when I was a child. Semi-permanent buildings would be a better description, and many have had to have their time limited planning permission extended as Governors agree to re-use for upto another 7 years.

My local primary opened in mid 1990s to serve houses built on an old factory and until 2006 took two classes per year, this September it is taking 4 classes. I think a mere 20% increase would be a dream.

The biggest problem is there is no longer any realistic school choice, the capacity until 2006 was based on about filling to 96%-97%, so some spare places for choice and people moving, now it is common for there to be only one or two school (often in one corner of the borough) with spare places. Sadly some find themselves in gaps between full schools and are offered something miles away.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 4:28 pm 
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Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 2:32 pm
Posts: 6966
Location: East Kent
and not so long ago that they closed or amalgamated schools her in E Kent because they didn't need so many places...

eta: 2007
:roll:


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